Attacking from a 4 sure is risky, especially in a 75% luck game :). But attacking neutrals from a 5 or 6 or attacking a 1 from a 4 may not lead to success either.
http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?GameID=1244859
Focus on Bulgaria and Greece, turns 1 to 9
http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?GameID=1130920
Focus on Denmark, turns 1 to 7
Enjoy :)!