No , were just dumber than the wolves

How the villagers feel right now:

Did anyone see or do anything with there night action? Is there a robber in play?

Pretty sure the night isn't over yet.

So we're not meant to be talking yet? Ah shit

The rules don't say anything about NOT talking. Just not to post roles.

Well atleast the usual winner isn't here.

Someone still hasn't done their night turn :(

Yes, still waiting. I think I'm going to extend the deadline, probably Monday or even Tuesday night.

Well damn :(

That could be great. One day to decide who we will lynch is too short.

We are waiting on at least 1/4 people to take a turn

Damn the probability guy in me is trying to get out again.

Here it comes...

The chance that the player the seer views the role of is still the same come morning (given: Robber, Troublemaker, and Drunk, aka the roles that perform actions after the Seer, are all in the game, not spares, and that they choose to perform random actions) is 53.22%. (Honestly, quite a bit more than I expected).


The chances of there being X Villagers or Wolves in play at the start:

0 Wolves = 1.28%
1 Wolf = 28.21%
2 Wolves = 70.51%

0 Villagers = 0.35%
1 Villager = 10.49%
2 Villagers = 47.20%
3 Villagers = 41.96%


The chance that the Troublemaker switches back the role the Robber stole:
2.22%


The chance that X people REALLY think they are Villagers based on night roles, given starting with all 3 standard Villagers in play:

3 People = 12.84%
4 People = 39.28%
5 People = 35.43%
6 people = 12.35%

Day phase is now open.


Voting closes at 8PM UK time on Tuesday, 12th January. You have just under 70 hours!

- if all of the Evil team's cards are in the Reserve, the Villagers must ensure that all players receive one and exactly one vote each (you may ignore the Tanner's vote for this)

I was just looking at how unlikely this is....and it is INCREDIBLY unlikely.

Let me describe what 2 courses MUST take place for this to happen (to the best of my knowledge).

Course 1

• 2 "evil" roles MUST start in the spare roles. No more, no less. The chances of this happening is just 6.99%.
  
  
• The Doppelganger CANNOT look at the evil card that is in play, or the drunk. If he does, there would then be either 4 evil roles, or 2 switches with the spares. Chances of this are pretty good though, at a whole 80%.
  
  
• The Drunk MUST be in play. If the Drunk is not in play, there is nobody to switch out the last evil card into the spares. Chances are also good for this, at 90%.
  
  
• The Drunk MUST pick the spare role that is not the evil roles. There is a 1 in 3 chance of that happening, or 33.33%.
  
  
• The Troublemaker MUST switch the evil role and the drunk. This allows the drunk, with his action, to put the evil card into the spare roles. The chance of this happening is just 2.78%.

Course 2

• All 3 evil cards MUST be in the spare. There is just 0.3497% chance of this.
  
  
• The Doppelganger MUST look at the Drunk. The chances of this are 11.11%
  
  
• It does not matter which card the Doppelganger looks at yet.
  
  
• The Troublemaker MUST switch the now evil Doppelganger with the original Drunk. Again, the chances are 2.78%
  
  
• The Drunk MUST switch with the role that the Doppelganger took. Again, 33.33%.

So. Course 1 has 0.04662% chance of happening randomly. Course 2 has just 0.00036% chance of happening randomly. In total, this has 0.04698% chance of applying to any given game. So, out of every 5 million random games, just 2349 will have this happen. Out of every 100000, just 47.

Hi guys! Villager here. Very excited to be on the first team that wins as the village! Woot!

<3 Traintown's stats!

:)

I'm a villager too.