I proposed to bet at 3 ot 1 odds that none of the current rebuplican candidates will win this US presidential election. The Lord is willing to take the bet(edit: forget about it, apparently he is 10)

I was thinking of starting a series of bets through the whole election process. I'm setting my bankroll at 150$, i don't know how much i'll invest in the first bet yet, it'll depend if other people are proposing bets that i'd be interested in. So if you want to propose a bet, do it in this thread and i'll update the post to reference it. I only accect bets from adults (18+ yo)

Anyway, we need someone to arbitrate the bets. This third party should be trusted by both participants of the bet of course, and wecan use this thread to set it up. I'll look at some options on how this could be organized, but for now the best thing we could come up with the Lord and I is to trust someone with enough recognition in the warlight community, like Fizzer, Mercer, Szeweningen, Master of Disaster, Lolowut.

I can serve as a third party to arbitrate bets i don't take part in if they need it and trust me enough with it.

If anyone listed above, or anynone that feels is well recognized and trusted in the WL community is willing to arbitrate my bet with the Lord, please say it here or/and PM us.

If other people wants to take the 3 to 1 bet i proposed, you can also say it here, i'll adjust the stakes depending on how many people wants to take the bet. (my maximum bankroll for this election being 150$)

Place your bets people!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
(the odds i'm giving are insane, but i'm confident this is still a +EV bet for me)


Bets
Hitchslap: https://www.warlight.net/Profile?p=5729125371
1)
-> None of the current republican candidtates will win the 2016 US presidential election
-> odds: 3 to 1
2)
->Bernie Sanders will be the next president of the USA
->odds: 1 to 4

Edited 2/1/2016 02:30:37

The US 2016 elections

Do odds change when Hillary gets indicted?

^I love you!

probably yes, if the bet isn't formalized by then

A dead donkey could beat Hillary with her shady past:
http://www.arkancide.com/

Wait, a socialist Frenchman is placing bets on who will win the American election? not to sterotype but that is like the example version of people who don't understand American life or culture XD anything else farther away from that would be like, a Chinese farmer lol

Edited 2/1/2016 00:30:12

well, I think google will probably help this guy out a lot. I will not place a bet since I think they are a waste and foolish however I will say that I have a very high belief that a republican will be the next president

Edited 2/1/2016 00:32:34

not to sterotype but that is like the example version of people who don't understand American life or culture XD anything else farther away from that would be like, a Chinese farmer lol

Not stereotyping at all lol

If i don't understand american politics,and you have very high confidence that a republican will be electd, and i'm giving you 3 to 1 odds,then why wouldn't you bet? You'd be foolish not to bet.

I don't bet for two reasons


1 I would not want to wire money overseas

2 I believe its foolish and a waste of cash


I am very confident however of course there is always a chance a miracle could happen. If you were American you would understand the extreme dissatisfaction with Obama, both democrats and republicans hate him. Plus, no current democrat candidates on the field can appeal to moderates ( Clinton maybe a little bit ). The only way Democrats would have an equal chance of winning 2016 will be if Trump is the republican candidate

Edited 2/1/2016 00:45:30

I am very confident however of course there is always a chance a miracle could happen

Right... that's why odds exist.

Hitch assumes that he's got a <25% chance of losing money on his bet, hence he offers 3:1 odds (when internally he thinks Hillary has a >75% chance of winning the election, so the expected value for him is still positive).

Let's assume that you believe the Republican field has, say, a 55% chance of winning. And that you bet $5.

In 55% of cases, Hitch is going to lose and owe you $15 (3 * $5).
In 45% of cases, Hitch is going to win and you owe him $5.

Your expected value is (.55)($15) - (.45)(%5) = $7.85.

But you go even further than that- you think it would take "a miracle" for the Republicans to not pull this election.

Let's be super-conservative here and say that a "miracle" happens 1/4 of the time.

That means- in 75% of cases, Hitch is going to lose and owe you $15; in 25% of cases, Hitch is going to win and you lose your $5. If you run this bet an infinite number of times, you should expect to come out $10 ahead on average for each iteration.

You can expect to come out on top under any model where the Republicans' chance of victory is >25%.

The risk is exactly how bets work. You can't argue that the mere existence of risk makes a bet not worth taking, because it's already handled by the lopsided ratio of wagers.

Edited 2/1/2016 01:01:12

exactly, if you think republicans have more than 25% chances to win the election, then taking the bet is +EV

Edited 2/1/2016 01:07:29

I believe its foolish and a waste of cash

If you believe this bet would be a waste of cash for you, then you don't really believe that a republican is going to get elected

Hmmm True Kynte but still as a general rule I do not bet, never have and hopefully never will. Oh and I did not mean any personally disrespect with my statement hitch

Like I said before I really would not want to wire money overseas and I do not need to prove that I believe the republicans will win by betting on it. There are plenty of people who believe in there party that don't want to bet not because they are afraid of losing but because they, like me, just don't to go through all the hassal. So if your point is since I don't bet that I am afraid my party will lose, lol you are completely off base

Edited 2/1/2016 01:16:48

i'm not saying that you don't wanna bet because you think you'll lose, i'm just saying that some of your justfications for not betting are wrong, if you actually believe that a republican will get elected. I'm not "forcing" you to bet or even implying that you are "afraid" to bet, there are other reasons why people wouldn't bet as a principle, that are not related to the odds, and i'm completely fine with it^^

edit: just so you know, if the only reason you don't wanna bet is because you don't want to wire money overseas, we can still use WL coins if you are interested

Edited 2/1/2016 01:24:06

lol I do not play WL coin games.


Tell you what, if Hillary wins then I will play ten lottery games with you and each one is rigged in your favor

you will have to remember this bet lol

" If you were American you would understand the extreme dissatisfaction with Obama, both democrats and republicans hate him."

This is nonsense.

Polls show that 10% of Republicans approve of Obama currently.

Okay, that does indeed show extreme dissatisfaction.

47% of Independents polled claim to be satisfied.

80% of Democrats polled claim to be satisfied.

Lets say 45% of the people polled are democrats, 45% republican, 10% independent. That gives a weighted approval rating of (.8*.45)+(.1*.47)+(.1*.45)=45.2%

That's not extreme disapproval.

It's also not weighted properly as actual polls show an approval rating of 48% most recently.

To put into context: At this stage of Bush's second term he had a 33% approval rating. Clinton had a 62% approval rating at this point in his second term.

So, yes, e is far less liked than Clinton was, however he is still far more liked than his predecessor was.

Historically presidents nearing the end of their term have had 47% approval ratings.

Apparently in your eyes a president who is considered to have done a slightly better than average job though is the target of "extreme" disapproval.

Edited 2/1/2016 01:40:00

What polls did you use? what were your sources?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/Barack-Obama-Presidential-Job-Approval.aspx