Trump and Sanders are the favorites to win NH, actually... (not much else, though)

Sanders have won *almost* every match up poll against a Republican candidate, and by a lot. A lot more than Hillary actually. Just saying...

Edited 2/10/2016 00:25:00

Trump was also favored to win Iowa, but that didn't happen.

The polls before Iowa were so off it's almost funny. I don't doubt that Bernie will likely take New Hampshire though.

@Hitchslap: Polls are not nearly as accurate as people credit them for. As Iowa and other past elections shown.

Edited 2/10/2016 00:21:52

@Eklipse: Iowa was a toss-up with Trump slightly more likely than his opponents to win, but it was too close to call. Trump has a 75% chance of winning NH and a 15% lead going in.

@Hitchslap: Yes, because Bernie hasn't been targeted by the Republicans yet. He's been more or less spared from most of the scrutiny that Clinton faces, because the GOP candidates are already treating Clinton as their general election opponent.

Sure, but saying Bernie Sanders can't win the general election when some polls give him a 19 point lead in a general election matchup against Trump...come on

Polls don't mean much, especially that long before the election, but still you seem way too quick to dismiss him. This is what the media have been saying since the beginning of the election and Bernie Sanders have been rising ever since.

watch this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naby6bj3kJ8

Yeah, these are super-early polls. We're still 9 months away from the actual election and 7-8 away from finding out who the general election candidates are.

I'm not quick to dismiss him; I'm literally only interested in the data this election, and he doesn't perform as well as you think he does. Sanders supporters have a very bad tendency to overreport their candidate's odds of winning- one told me after Iowa that Hillary's primary lead had dissipated (when it's 15-20% in most states).

The hypothetical general election polls right now are just junk data because most voters haven't thought that far yet and don't have enough information to know what they're going for. Feel free to build your Internet spam campaign around them, though

I hope you realize that a lot of the news you're getting exposed to comes from a certain /r/atheism-flavored chunk of the Internet that consistently over-reports the predominance of socialism, liberalism, atheism, conservative fundamentalism, etc., since that's the sort of news that gets attention in those parts.

Socialism is still wildly unpopular in all generations except for the Millennials (where it's still got a really high unfavorability rating hampering it); economically, the generations are also consistently on the middle when it comes to Bernie economics (wealth redistribution), so he's not even really able to ride a Millennial wave there.

We go through this every election cycle, man. It's kind of sad when people don't realize how badly their niche on the Internet skews their perception.

Edited 2/10/2016 00:36:44

I agree that he is not likely to win the primaries, but if he was to win the primaries, i think he would do better against any republican than Hillary

It won't matter who comes in first in NH.

Things to look out for:
1) How badly does Hillary get beat (if its 5% or less she'll actually be a winner considering how far back she was predicted a few weeks ago)?
2) Which establishment candidate competes with Trump (if Rubio doesn't make top 3 it could hurt his chances in South Carolina)?
3) Do Jeb, Christie, and Bush get enough support to continue in the race (Those that don't make it into the top 4 of NH may have to leave, although Bush has enough SuperPac money to continue for at least a month if he's smart with it)?
4) Does Ted Cruz keep himself relevant (he'll need at least 10-12% to keep his momentum from Iowa and not be completely forgotten, but NH does not bode well for him)?

^

Basically, this (read the headlines on the simulations)

http://www.openprocessing.org/sketch/306571/embed/?width=900&height=350&border=true

Candidate-by-candidate:

GOP

Trump
+ wins with >35%
- narrowly wins with two other GOP candidates in the 20% range

Rubio
+ places in the top 3
- outdone by Bush or Christie

Cruz
+ gets more than 15% of the vote
- gets less than 10% of the vote

Christie
+ beat Rubio or Bush
- outdone by Rubio and Bush

Bush
+ places in the top 3
- gets less than 10% of the vote

Kasich
+ places in the top 5
- gets less than 10% of the vote

Fiorina
+ places in the top 5
- gets less than 8% of the vote

Carson
+ places in the top 5
- gets less than 8% of the vote

(All others)
+ place in top 5
- get less than 5% of the vote

Dems

Hillary:
+ able to poll above 45%
- polling below 42%

Sanders
+ wins with over 60%
- wins with less than 53%

Edited 2/10/2016 00:50:57

Here is the closest roll i could get according to what i think will happen
http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/714275prediction.png

Edited 2/10/2016 01:01:17

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus-results/new-hampshire

Looks like Rubio's robotic debate performance may bite him in the butt.

Results are coming out FYI:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/new-hampshire?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

So Rubio is dead, the New Hampshire lane is still messy, and Trump is looking like a real frontrunner again. Clinton also underperformed; Sanders might get a boost out of this.

Edited 2/10/2016 01:29:25

I still think its too early. I wouldn't be surprised if Kasich cut Trump's lead (he's very popular with Independents). Only 10% in so far.

It's clear that Trump will win NH and the nomination.

Rubio at 9.8%. If he finishes below 10, he won't get any delegates from NH.

Poor Jeb is doing surprisingly well. Good, he won't get elected anyway.

Sanders' campaign just emailed. They won New Hampshire, gg.

I should have posted another "8 Reasons Why Not to Vote For Trump". Dammit.

At least Cruz is still in 3rd.

Edited 2/10/2016 01:53:37

Maximilian -

We just won the New Hampshire primary.

I am about to head downstairs to address an enthusiastic group of supporters and volunteers. But what I am about to tell you is important:

There are 14 primaries and caucuses over the next three weeks, and you can be certain that our victory tonight will prompt a desperate response from the nation’s financial elite and the political establishment who want to stop our campaign to transform America.

Who knows what they're going to throw at us next. All I know is we must be ready to respond, organize, and win.

Make a $3 contribution to our campaign tonight and we are going to win this Democratic primary, the White House, and take our country back from the billionaire class.

Nine months ago, if you told somebody that we would win the New Hampshire primary, they would not have believed you. Not at all. Too bold, they would have said. Not enough money to compete against the billionaires.

You showed them tonight.

In solidarity,

Bernie Sanders

@The Lord: it's spelled Jeb!, dumbass (but pronounced "guac")

Edited 2/10/2016 01:54:29