since ISIS came onto the scene.

Yeah, since ISIS came onto the scene out of nowhere, with no foreign funding.

Since ISIS came onto the scene out of nowhere
http://buzzvirality.com/entertainment/no-ones-safe-from-the-rko-outta-nowhere-our-10-favourites/10/

Yeah, since ISIS came onto the scene out of nowhere, with no foreign funding.

Why are you so good at misrepresentation. Did I say "out of nowhere"? I was simply referring to the fact that the dissolution of Syria-Iraq and the entrance of ISIS onto the world stage as a credible and important global security threat caused the Obama administration to essentially give up its Asia Pivot plan.

Edited 3/17/2016 01:41:54

nah,

Sanders is a pipe dream on the democrat side. it's never going to happen. no matter what happens, there are still too many democrats who understand how money works.

Cruz has a far better shot at unseating Trump than Sanders does Clinton, but it's still not likely to happen. Trump has basically reached critical mass at this point. And the Republicans are not going to try any convention heroics to unseat Trump either mainly because the Republicans are by and large cowards.

The race will be between Clinton and Trump. I could not in good conscience vote for either of them, so I would have to vote 3rd party. I'm quite certain Clinton comes out on top and I believe that would probably be for the best because at least the Republicans will have the good sense to fight her. I would be worried that if Trump got in, the Republicans might go along with him just because he was one of their own.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

what the hell? Isil is the proper name

Shut up

                                       .....'',;;::cccllllllllllllcccc:::;;,,,''...'',,'..
                            ..';cldkO00KXNNNNXXXKK000OOkkkkkxxxxxddoooddddddxxxxkkkkOO0XXKx:.
                      .':ok0KXXXNXK0kxolc:;;,,,,,,,,,,,;;,,,''''''',,''..              .'lOXKd'
                 .,lx00Oxl:,'............''''''...................    ...,;;'.             .oKXd.
              .ckKKkc'...'',:::;,'.........'',;;::::;,'..........'',;;;,'.. .';;'.           'kNKc.
           .:kXXk:.    ..       ..................          .............,:c:'...;:'.         .dNNx.
          :0NKd,          .....''',,,,''..               ',...........',,,'',,::,...,,.        .dNNx.
         .xXd.         .:;'..         ..,'             .;,.               ...,,'';;'. ...       .oNNo
         .0K.         .;.              ;'              ';                      .'...'.           .oXX:
        .oNO.         .                 ,.              .     ..',::ccc:;,..     ..                lXX:
       .dNX:               ......       ;.                'cxOKK0OXWWWWWWWNX0kc.                    :KXd.
     .l0N0;             ;d0KKKKKXK0ko:...              .l0X0xc,...lXWWWWWWWWKO0Kx'                   ,ONKo.
   .lKNKl...'......'. .dXWN0kkk0NWWWWWN0o.            :KN0;.  .,cokXWWNNNNWNKkxONK: .,:c:.      .';;;;:lk0XXx;
  :KN0l';ll:'.         .,:lodxxkO00KXNWWWX000k.       oXNx;:okKX0kdl:::;'',;coxkkd, ...'. ...'''.......',:lxKO:.
 oNNk,;c,'',.                      ...;xNNOc,.         ,d0X0xc,.     .dOd,           ..;dOKXK00000Ox:.   ..''dKO,
'KW0,:,.,:..,oxkkkdl;'.                'KK'              ..           .dXX0o:'....,:oOXNN0d;.'. ..,lOKd.   .. ;KXl.
;XNd,;  ;. l00kxoooxKXKx:..ld:         ;KK'                             .:dkO000000Okxl;.   c0;      :KK;   .  ;XXc
'XXdc.  :. ..    '' 'kNNNKKKk,      .,dKNO.                                   ....       .'c0NO'      :X0.  ,.  xN0.
.kNOc'  ,.      .00. ..''...      .l0X0d;.             'dOkxo;...                    .;okKXK0KNXx;.   .0X:  ,.  lNX'
 ,KKdl  .c,    .dNK,            .;xXWKc.                .;:coOXO,,'.......       .,lx0XXOo;...oNWNXKk:.'KX;  '   dNX.
  :XXkc'....  .dNWXl        .';l0NXNKl.          ,lxkkkxo' .cK0.          ..;lx0XNX0xc.     ,0Nx'.','.kXo  .,  ,KNx.
   cXXd,,;:, .oXWNNKo'    .'..  .'.'dKk;        .cooollox;.xXXl     ..,cdOKXXX00NXc.      'oKWK'     ;k:  .l. ,0Nk.
    cXNx.  . ,KWX0NNNXOl'.           .o0Ooldk;            .:c;.':lxOKKK0xo:,.. ;XX:   .,lOXWWXd.      . .':,.lKXd.
     lXNo    cXWWWXooNWNXKko;'..       .lk0x;       ...,:ldk0KXNNOo:,..       ,OWNOxO0KXXNWNO,        ....'l0Xk,
     .dNK.   oNWWNo.cXK;;oOXNNXK0kxdolllllooooddxk00KKKK0kdoc:c0No        .'ckXWWWNXkc,;kNKl.          .,kXXk,
      'KXc  .dNWWX;.xNk.  .kNO::lodxkOXWN0OkxdlcxNKl,..        oN0'..,:ox0XNWWNNWXo.  ,ONO'           .o0Xk;
      .ONo    oNWWN0xXWK, .oNKc       .ONx.      ;X0.          .:XNKKNNWWWWNKkl;kNk. .cKXo.           .ON0;
      .xNd   cNWWWWWWWWKOkKNXxl:,'...;0Xo'.....'lXK;...',:lxk0KNWWWWNNKOd:..   lXKclON0:            .xNk.
      .dXd   ;XWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNNNNNWWNNNNNNNNNWWNNNNNNWWWWWNXKNNk;..        .dNWWXd.             cXO.
      .xXo   .ONWNWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNNK0ko:'..OXo          'l0NXx,              :KK,
      .OXc    :XNk0NWXKNWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNNNX00NNx:'..       lXKc.     'lONN0l.              .oXK:
      .KX;    .dNKoON0;lXNkcld0NXo::cd0NNO:;,,'.. .0Xc            lXXo..'l0NNKd,.              .c0Nk,
      :XK.     .xNX0NKc.cXXl  ;KXl    .dN0.       .0No            .xNXOKNXOo,.               .l0Xk;.
     .dXk.      .lKWN0d::OWK;  lXXc    .OX:       .ONx.     . .,cdk0XNXOd;.   .'''....;c:'..;xKXx,
     .0No         .:dOKNNNWNKOxkXWXo:,,;ONk;,,,,,;c0NXOxxkO0XXNXKOdc,.  ..;::,...;lol;..:xKXOl.
     ,XX:             ..';cldxkOO0KKKXXXXXXXXXXKKKKK00Okxdol:;'..   .';::,..':llc,..'lkKXkc.
     :NX'    .     ''            ..................             .,;:;,',;ccc;'..'lkKX0d;.
     lNK.   .;      ,lc,.         ................        ..,,;;;;;;:::,....,lkKX0d:.
    .oN0.    .'.      .;ccc;,'....              ....'',;;;;;;;;;;'..   .;oOXX0d:.
    .dN0.      .;;,..       ....                ..''''''''....     .:dOKKko;.
     lNK'         ..,;::;;,'.........................           .;d0X0kc'.
     .xXO'                                                 .;oOK0x:.
      .cKKo.                                    .,:oxkkkxk0K0xc'.
        .oKKkc,.                         .';cok0XNNNX0Oxoc,.
          .;d0XX0kdlc:;,,,',,,;;:clodkO0KK0Okdl:,'..
              .,coxO0KXXXXXXXKK0OOxdoc:,..
                        ...

Why are you so good at misrepresentation. Did I say "out of nowhere"? I was simply referring to the fact that the dissolution of Syria-Iraq and the entrance of ISIS onto the world stage as a credible and important global security threat caused the Obama administration to essentially give up its Asia Pivot plan.

Was drunk; 10/10 word choice. Think you mean "misinterprestation", matee. But call it what it is, Obama supported it.

Trump's now at 96% of his delegate targets. This means that:

- if Kasich stays in the race, and
- if Kasich pulls substantially more voters from Trump than from Cruz, and
- if Trump's not able to get half of all delegates

OR

- if Kasich drops from the race, and
- if Kasich's voters migrate to Cruz substantially moreso than they do to Trump, and
- if Cruz gets a majority of all delegates

There's going to be a contested convention. Kasich likely won't come out on top here, but Cruz has a shot (right now he's the clear leader in endorsements- this lead will only substantially increase now that Rubio's gone) at getting the nomination instead of Trump as long as he's either got more momentum going forward or is just very close to 50% (maybe even closer to it than Trump, although that's unlikely) the party can pull this trick without fragmenting itself or having to worry about a third-party Trump bid.

But based on betting markets, a Trump presidency is about twice as likely as any other nominee winning- so this scenario isn't likely to happen.

what confuses me is why Clinton is running away with the African-American vote.. Especially considering Obama got 91% of their votes when running against her. I would have thought Sanders message would resonate well with them. Apparently not, anyone know what he said wrong? I've not found any reason why online

@indibob:

Clinton's 2016 coalition is Obama's 2008 coalition. Sanders' 2016 coalition is Clinton's 2008 coalition.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-who-like-obama-like-clinton/

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/clinton-south-carolina/471276/

That said, Clinton's lead among African-Americans might have been overestimated a bit (it was only 2:1 in Michigan when polls suggested 4:1 going in; then again, Michigan seems to be an isolated incident rather than a representative of the entire Midwest and certainly doesn't reflect the entire country).

But her lead can't be explained based on policy positions alone- as Killer Mike and Ta-Nehisi Coates would argue, Bernie's policies on issues like reparations are in many ways more African-American-friendly than Hillary's. There's an NPR segment you should check out:

http://www.npr.org/2016/03/01/468185698/understanding-the-clintons-popularity-with-black-voters

Personally, I just think it's because, well, Bernie's that guy. The one that happens every election cycle- that candidate whose voterbase is largely white, college-educated twentysomethings because their policy position/policy message as a whole isn't that fleshed out and their views are tilted far from mainstream but resonate a lot with the ideologies younger voters have begun to experiment with (the ones where they differ sharply from other demographic groups). And that guy usually has a big following among white twenty-something males while the official liberal candidate throws their weight behind better-known, more widely-accepted policy positions within their political group and just inherits the remainder- the mainstream of their party that's not too serious about ideology and whatnot but just trusts the general group.

Edited 3/17/2016 06:49:41

Funny how all these 'Muricans think that whoever they vote for will make a blind bit of difference. Lol.

Mathematically Bernie still have a shot, but it is a long long shot. From now on he needs to win virtually every states, and with a wide margin.

On the GOP side, there is some evidence that there will be a contested convention, this is what the GOP establishment seems to count on in order to stop Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojnTk1fbI1w

Kasich likely won't come out on top here, but Cruz has a shot (right now he's the clear leader in endorsements- this lead will only substantially increase now that Rubio's gone) at getting the nomination instead of Trump as long as he's either got more momentum going forward or is just very close to 50% (maybe even closer to it than Trump, although that's unlikely) the party can pull this trick without fragmenting itself or having to worry about a third-party Trump bid.

Kasich has to win 116% of all the delegates remaining to get 1237 delegates. Cruz has to win 87% of all the delegates remaining to get 1237. And Trump needs 60% of all the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. I don't see the establishment coalescing around Cruz just because he has a slightly better chance of beating Trump. In fact, the only thing that Kasich's win in Ohio does is prolong a divided StopTrump campaign when the thing it needs most of all is to make this race a 1v1. Some evidence shows that Cruz could win California, which would essentially stop Trump from collecting 1237 delegates. However, I honestly don't see a path forward for Cruz or Kasich to collect enough delegates so that one of them overtakes Trump in the number of delegates. If that's the case can the party establishment really make an argument to deny Trump the nomination at an open convention? Probably not. If Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, I would expect chaos in the party. Trump is not level-headed, rational, or predictable, and we have no idea how he would react to a contested convention. The threat of an independent run may be enough for the GOP leadership to start quivering and just bow down to Trump.

Edited 3/17/2016 14:01:58

Kasich has to win 116% of all the delegates remaining to get 1237 delegates. Cruz has to win 87% of all the delegates remaining to get 1237. And Trump needs 60% of all the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination.

Neither Cruz nor Kasich (especially not Kasich) should be gunning for 1237 right now. Play a bit with the simulator @ NYT (www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/16/upshot/trump-cruz-kasich-republican-delegate-lead.html?=1) and you find some interesting in-between scenarios where Trump falls short of 1237 and opens the door to a contested convention where Cruz has a shot.

when the thing it needs most of all is to make this race a 1v1.

A 1v1 significantly reduces the odds of a contested convention, however. Take out Kasich's share of the vote and Trump's odds of getting an outright majority skyrocket unless nearly all of his voters jump to Cruz.

You don't want a 1v1 if you want no one to get an outright majority before the convention-unless somehow voters start coalescing around Cruz real soon, he alone won't be able to pull that off.

It really depends on what triggers the contested convention- there's a (small) set of scenarios where Cruz has a delegate lead going into a contested convention, although that's only going to occur if Kasich drops out.

Yeah I played around with that simulator yesterday. The idea that Kasich is going to average around 25% nationally is a bit of a stretch in my opinion. Reuters 5 day rolling polls show him at 9% as late as March 15. Also I don't think Cruz has a shot if it goes to a convention. Cruz is hated by the establishment of the GOP, and they are the ones who make up the convention. Everyday rank-and-file voters don't get invited to the Convention in Cleveland, so its going to be hard for Cruz to make a case when he's speaking to an audience that mainly loathes him. A contested convention favors Kasich or someone outside the political primary process - people have floated Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney.

You don't want a 1v1 if you want no one to get an outright majority before the convention-unless somehow voters start coalescing around Cruz real soon, he alone won't be able to pull that off.

It really depends on what triggers the contested convention- there's a (small) set of scenarios where Cruz has a delegate lead going into a contested convention, although that's only going to occur if Kasich drops out.

It seems the theory that Trump has a 35% ceiling is going out the window. With every person who drops out he seems to pick up a small if not significant portion of their base, which has the effect of stalling any attempt to defeat him. If anything, my opinion has started to shift to the idea that maybe Cruz has a 20% ceiling.

You've probably seen this article - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

Cruz has a huge problem in endorsements. For the guy supposedly the party's best chance to stop Trump before a contested convention, he seems to not be receiving any help.

I see your point though about a 1v1 potentially helping Trump. Even if Cruz beats Trump in outright % voting, he may not collect enough delegates to beat Trump due to proportional allocation.