If you had just added one more army there, it doesn't matter how many delays I have, I can't win. But you didn't. That was not due simply to supreme confidence you knew exactly how many delays I had. You just weren't thinking about that.
I realized this because on turn 3, he deployed exactly 2 armies on my border. He did not deploy any in Central Russia, should I KNEW that with a 10 income, he deployed 8 remaining armies somewhere else.