Forget that last part, I had the wrong settings when testing percentages, didn't realize it was less luck involved. 7 will be fine, so one can be switched back to the Eastern Khazakstan attack.

Diabolicus -

Squatting in Argentina is fine (although it's not much different than #7 which has two di Minimus attacks of 3 from Argentina - not an attack with 15-24). Do you really feel another option without the late attacks with 3 is warranted?

Why do you want to explore Causacus? Imp has deployed 100% every turn in SA or South Africa for the last 6 turns. He's not in Causacus. That's a waste of armies better used in Greenland, Antartica or Argentina. Imp is especially unlikely to put armies into expanding in Causacus this turn.

Check your math on the 72% and 84%. 7 kills 4.2 and we have 16% luck (I think). I get odds of missing with a 7 attack as .351(odds there's a remainder below 4) x .472 (odds of failing the remainder roll) or .165 (so we make it 84.5% of the time). The odds of missing with 8 are zero.

So we mitigate a 15.5% chance of losing 5 by allocated 1 additional army. Makes sense to me. Especially if all we'd do with that army is sit in Argentina with it.

Revised to obviate risk of failed 7x4 attack:

7 Goal: Take the Greenland bonus. Very Safely try to take more control of South America.
-Deploy 5 to Kangerlussuaq, 7 to Itseqqortoormiit, 3 to Argentina and 1 to Siple. Transfer 1 from Siple to Argentina. Attack Qaanaaq with 8. Attack Nuuk with 4. Attack Iceland with 4. Transfer 1 to Kangerlussuaq. Transfer 2 to Danmark Havn. Attack Columbia with 3. Attack Brazil with 3.

I didn't like the old plan of letting Impaller keep East Africa and take South Africa, so you can imagine my feelings about this new plan, which appears to be to totally concede Antarctica AND both of the choke points into Africa just so we can get Greenland one turn earlier.

Troll, please add this option:

Deploy one in each of the Greenland 2s
Deploy 13 to Argentina.
Attack 3 on 2 into each of the Greenlands.
Move the other armies up into Greenland.
Attack 2 on 1 north into South America.
Send the rest into Brazil.

Option 3 is close, but not aggressive enough with Brazil for my tastes.

Fred -- How about a little consistency. It's like you have multiple personalities or something.

You suggested two alternative options -- both of them involved blockading in Antartica. Now you are up in arms about "totally conced[ing] Antarctica." That's your plan dude!

Your other points are variations on the same theme "conceding both choke points into Africa" and "letting him keep East Africa and take South Africa". This all boils down to attacking Brazil -- that's it. Attacking Brazil doesn't really solve those things, but it's your principal plan in all three of your proposed options.

I understand that attacking Brazil with a stack is very likely to result in taking it. You might even get a net gain on the attack (assuming Imp doesn't slide over and give the spot up).

The down side is you give up +5 income from greenland next turn and Imp starts outearning us.

We are 100% assured of the +5 income if we take Greenland (zero risk). We could have no net gain taking Brazil.

There are other possible bad outcomes with the attack on Brazil beyond foregoing the +5. Imp put's all his income there and we bounce, potentially missing the card piece if the 3x2 attacks fail in greenland. Imp slides to Columbia and does a delayed attack into Argentina -- then next turn we're stuck blockading on the East side of Antartica and Imp is able to bring his stack in Antartica over to South America.

As with last turn - you may guess right and Imp leaves just the right number in Brazil for you to max the net gain and you win your 3x2s and you pick up Columbia with a 2x1. But I prefer not to rely on guessing right unless I have no choice.

There's zero guess work in my proposed #7. Whatever Imp does it yields an improved position next turn. Is it better than if I accurately guess his moves and play a counter -- of course not. But I don't think that's the best way to play WL.

Even if you guess right this turn -- it woudl not shake my view that the right move is to not rely on guessing right, unless you have no choice.

Why don't we deploy 4 to Itseqqortoormiit Deploy 4 to Kangerlussuaq and Attack Quaanq with that force. While Attacking the other two Territorys in Greenland with 3 each from Itseqqortoormiit. While we deploy the rest of our income to Scott and Blockade it as it makes no ense to try and keep Ant resulting in a loss of our Troops. With the 5 we earn in Greenland we can easily take Brazil NEXT TURN.

Or would it make sense to just deploy however much we have left defending from Imp. Because he wont have enough Income to attack us in Antarctica and Defend Brazil. So if We add 15 Maybe in Antarctica in the Territory that's under treat and the rest of income in Brazil and attack him with everything we got in Argentina to Brazil we May hold Antarctica, Just About, and/or Get our Brazil Choke Point. I'm new to writing down what i think and I'm finding it difficult :P Maybe Duke can decipher what i am getting at.

Okay I am going to try and do this. (Presuming our income is 21)
Deploy 15 to Noval.... In Antartica
Deploy 6 To Argentina
Attack Brazil from Argentina with everything.
Transfer the troops in Scan to Greenland.
And Transfer Troops from Eastern Most Greenland to Further in Greenland.

I am quite Bad at getting this into words.

I will add your proposed options in the next couple of days. I am currently on vacation until June 20th, so this voting period is longer than normal.

For clarification, 7v4 has a 98% chance of success; you may adjust your proposals accordingly.

7 Goal: Take the Greenland bonus. Take more control of South America.

-Deploy 5 to Kangerlussuaq, 6 to Itseqqortoormiit, 3 to Argentina and 1 to Siple. Transfer 1 from Siple to Argentina. Attack Qaanaaq with 7. Attack Nuuk with 4. Attack Iceland with 4. Transfer 1 to Kangerlussuaq. Transfer 2 to Danmark Havn. Attack Columbia with 3. Attack Brazil with 3.

Duke, you did a fine job getting us out to a big lead. You didn't like my options the last two turns, and I've been right both of those turns. Our position has seriously deteriorated. We had more income, and we had room to expand, and he didn't. Now he has all of Africa to expand into, and if he can secure Brazil and Novo, it will be difficult to root him out. This is the only turn that we can attack Brazil with a likelihood of taking it. This is not the only turn that we can attack Greenland. I'd like to have Greenland this turn, too, but there are only two chokepoints into Africa, and he has a chance to pick up 7 more in bonuses there plus four more in indonesia. I'm willing to trade one turn of five income for the right now to bang into a big stack in Brazil turn after turn and lose a lot more than 5.

This series has gotten even better with the heavyweights vehemently arguing their stance.

Good stuff.

And no, I have nothing meaningful to add.

Added options for voting. If you suggested something, please review it on Snappyvote to make sure it reflects what you wish to be voted upon. If you wish any change to be made (addition, subtraction, deletion etc), please post here as soon as possible.

bostonfred: Do you want your BF1 and BF2 to be added as well as your latest suggestion?

REGL Kalashnikov: We only have 15 income this turn. Could you adjust your proposal accordingly?

Voting will be considered complete and the turn will advance at the stroke of midnight (or somewhere close as Fizzer deems appropriate) THIS SUNDAY, JUNE 19th. Please cast your vote before then.

Thank you.

Thanks Troll. No, just the newest one.

Last day to vote!

Number 9 has won! The next thread will be posted shortly.

I think giving up a guaranteed +5 was a mistake -- but there's nothing inherently wrong with blasting Brazil -- we should net up 3 or 4 that way too. Not good if he slides the 7 to Columbia I don't like voluntarilly giving Imp an income advantage for even one turn though.

I don't think "shortly" means what you think it means

Haha. I just got back from a lengthy vacation and am trying to catch up at work. I'll post the new turn as soon as I can.