In this scenario (happens elsewhere too but here very often), I often see good players make one of those two picks. With no counter picks, without picking anything else nearby. And then if they get it, they will just start clearing the bonus immediately, with no concern for whether their opponent is nearby.

Why? Isn't that too reckless? What am I not understanding? What is the strategic thinking behind doing this?

Actually with the one on the right, you can just move one spot left and see if your opponent is there, ignore that aspect. But he is still wide open to a very popular pick on the right. Anytime a popular pick will wreck me by just clearing their own bonus, that seems like a bad pick. Unless it's a counter-pick or double-pick or intel-pick. Clearly I'm missing something.

Edited 5/17/2016 14:16:23

If you link the games, someone will probably find the reason why they did.

edit: wrong link

Edited 5/17/2016 14:19:07

pick 2:

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=10968566

There is some spacing and a lot of wastelands in the area so it's not typical. You also delayed taking the bonus. But when you loaded 10 there and took the bonus, that shocked me. He could be delaying also from West Russia. Or, somewhat unlikely but, he could be exactly where he was.

pik cokosus foar triple-FTB!!!!11one

i'm beginning to understand how you chose your username

It might make sense as a lower pick as you can use it to gain intel on whether someone went for a popular combo- or just use it to break the combo if you suspect your opponent has it. It's also not too bad for expansion, because it's a nice zone if the bonuses around you aren't taken.

To counter the left bonus, you've got the 2:1 border on the northwest of the bonus. To counter the right bonus, there's an income differential (4:5) and you can easily flip the border differential to your advantage (3:1) because breaking your bonus (likely by primarily going for 1 of the 3 borders) puts your opponent in a vulnerable position where you can use a late move to take their western border- and you can simultaneously take Mongolia for a 2:1 against East Russia. I'd say, in practice, East v. Central Russia can actually be a scenario where Central Russia has a slight advantage, especially if you're encountering a fully taken East Russia in the first 3 turns, because then it means your opponent's got a +5 and that +5 is East Russia (and hopefully you've got more than just a +4 at that stage).

And if for some reason your opponent went for China, you now also have its weakness. So Central Russia is an effective counter to four bonuses- West Russia, East Russia, West China, and Caucasus. And if one side of Central Russia doesn't have a nearby opponent, you've also got a really nice expansion region. Couple that with intel and it's not a bad start.

I think it's obvious why he took that as a 2. He wanted position and a quick counter to the FTB. One pick eliminates two and there is an immediate advantage.

Now that I watch the game I see he didn't even try that. Still I think it's a good spot if you aren't going for the FTB.

Edited 5/17/2016 16:31:26

I am still quite a noob, but it seems to me it would be good since many surrounding regions are likely to be picked. However, I don not know why you would go for the bonus before snooping around a little.

Your screenshot is a completely different situation than the actual game. In your screenshot I wouldn`t understand it when a high ranked player went for russia.

In the game CR is not a bad position and seems to be a counter to the FTB.

I don`t really know why Buns played it the way he did, I would`ve taken Ant and countered the FTB. Maybe Buns didn`t expect Braak to pick the FTB. If that is the case, CR would be safe for a couple of turns. If Braak only had SEA he could border Buns after 3 turns, right after Buns completed it. My guess is that Buns didn`t expect Braak to go for the FTB on this board. I don`t think an enemy in West Russia is a logical assumption as there are better starting positions. In such a scenario it makes sense to complete Central Russia.

I don not know why you would go for the bonus before snooping around a little.

This is the part I still don't understand. I got all the possible reasons people are naming for picking there. Intel, counter-picking etc. But what I don't understand is taking the bonus just like it's a protected antarctica pick or something, with no concern for where your opponent might be. If you picked it to counter an FTB, what good does that do if you don't even move out of russia until turn 5?

I'm not speaking to Buns' game specifically, just in general. That aspect, treating it like it's a nice safe little place to get a bonus, I don't understand. Is it simply worth the risk? That's the only explanation I can think of, I'm just being too cautious in those situations.

It is dangerous yeah and it depends a lot on the board and your enemies picks. In you screenshot for example I don`t expect anybody to just take Central Russia like it is safe.

On Buns side East Russia is safe, WR would not be a great pick. This only leaves Caucasus as a real threat in the beginning of the game. If Buns didn`t expect Braak to be there, then CR would be safe enough to be worth the risk of just taking it without snooping around.

Whether you can take russia without snooping around or not is depended on the (predicted) situation. It also sometimes happens because a player really needs income and doesn`t have another option.

Generally I would agree that it is not smart to take a russia bonus without checking the likely counters (but maybe the top players are hiding some secret tactic :O )

Edited 5/17/2016 18:23:17

Sometimes picking in a high-risk area and getting that pick signifies that the other player did not pick within that area (thus you got your pick), it's intel gained from absence of intel. It can also depend on who your opponent is. Sometimes good players will have played their opponent before or watched some of their games, so they have an idea of what kind of picking strats their opponent will use.

Also since this template is SR, expansion is cheap and much less risky than WR. In order for Central Russia to beat Western Russia is to move straight to the double border with more than 3, which isn't likely even if Central Russia has intel on Western Russia unless there's many conflicts of picks and a brawl occurs. (Brawls also almost never happen in SR as opposed to WR, so again more reason for CR to never focus on elim on Western Russia even with intel)

I think you would never see this strategy used in WR as successfully. Expansion being expensive means that small conflict can completely halt all your expansion for a turn or 2, so you normally have to expand something you know is safe.

This is one of the many reasons why I don't like the SR template.

Maybe someone who has a lot of experience with a certain map, would act in a different way than the majority of players.

Absolutely. There are lots of little intricacies of this map only people who've played it a lot would know.

A little off topic but here is an example I recently learned the hard way in a ladder game:



That line represents 22 bonus. You can absolutely destroy somebody (or get destroyed), if they have that line and don't defend it strong enough and you take a huge stack straight through it. Might seem obvious when I point it out but in the game you might not be thinking that. I wasn't.

Edited 5/17/2016 19:37:25

Im my game v braak I expected him to have the ftb, or at least one of the picks. So CR was a nice pick to be in the area and make a cau pick near useless.

I got greedy (probably a mistake) and went for an extra 4 income instead of antartica for 3 income from what I remember, hoping if he was in cau he would come up a turn later.

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=10618125

I put 1 2 WR CR here :P

Edited 5/17/2016 20:39:51

i'm beginning to understand how you chose your username

:-D

That being said, in the game linked Buns couldnt check if opponent was around as he was still on 5 income and needed it to finish Australia.

In the game you linked Buns, you wasted a lots of armies in SA which you couldnt complete, it worked as you broke CA despite only 1 border there (ofc border on EC helped) but I would have focused on coming strong via Greenland ?

And green played weird by going strong in India then Pakistan ??