In terms of the top 3, master and turtles are getting ahead of lynx in points won percentage (damn you buns). However the forecasts still have turtles falling down in the team games to 3rd, and it being a close fight between masters and lynx, one forecast saying masters will take it by a point, the other saying lynx will take it by 2. (how are those forecasts worked out btw knyte?) I feel like masters will take it, but it should be a good fight.

Hopefully these wins are the start of a WG comeback as we move more into the team games. GG can't afford 1v1 losses if they want to avoid relegation, as french and apex won't show mercy in the team games. French and Apex are still pretty quiet, expect a push from them to catch the top 3, French have more max points than lynx, so could definitely join the fight with some solid performance.

Here's a rough explanation, from the Div. D thread: https://www.warlight.net/Forum/159498-clan-league-8-division-d-official-thread?Offset=380

Forecast is based on winrates on a matchup-by-matchup (on a clan level) + format-by-format basis (using some conservative estimation if two clans haven't played each other on a specific format), while Elo Forecast goes by Elo on a format-by-format basis. The blind spot for Elo is mainly in situations where one clan matches up really well against another specific clan on a format but doesn't perform as well elsewhere.

Edited 7/20/2016 20:06:42

Hey. I'd like to resign from my unofficial updating/scorekeeping-y duties since I strongly disagree with how MotD reacts to things like the M'Hunters incident + the Tabby issue by blaming them on me and really don't want to continue to be part of a community event run by people like him. No hard feelings; just doing what aligns with my values- and I really don't want to create more drama here or really even talk further about this.

Thanks.

EDIT: Actually, with the PM's I'm getting from some of you... I really feel a bit unwelcome on this site b/c of y'all. I'm not thin-skinned or anything, but Internet mobs like that are scary. So sorry, but I'm gonna stop with any updates from my end immediately. :(

EDIT2: KKND has volunteered to replace me. The sheets at http://tinyurl.com/cl8a-fancy will still be active and hopefully you'll be able to still enjoy some of the data and visualizations in there. I'd like to express my sincerest gratitude to him for stepping in.

EDIT3: Since people seem to still be curious, this is why:

- I got tired of Tabby spamming the Div D thread instead of scorekeeping. MotD blacklisted me as a result.

- I criticized M'Hunters for their treatment of cheating. They personally attack me in response, with no response to the actual issue. MotD's response:

[12:41:34 AM] [REDACTED] - Deadman - Motd - WL: knyte is a real problem though
[12:41:41 AM] Great Expanse - WL: I was about to go talk to you MotD
[12:42:02 AM] [REDACTED] - Deadman - Motd - WL: he just has to have an opinion and rant at everyone :/
[12:42:27 AM] [REDACTED] - Deadman - Motd - WL: I already blacklisted both the threads, so I'm not reading it as such
[12:42:32 AM] [REDACTED] - Deadman - Motd - WL: until you mentioned it
[12:42:50 AM] Benjamin628: I don't think he started it
[12:43:02 AM] [REDACTED] - Deadman - Motd - WL: does not matter really

- M'Hunters are likely cheating. I documented it to send things to MotD (and later opened it to the public when I found out MotD doesn't wanna listen and sees all of this as me wanting to create drama or having a personal vendetta- like I want to be on the shitlist of every elitist on this site)- http://bit.ly/mh-cl8-cheating. No salt. Tried to get it to MotD for review. This is the response I get from someone helping me (who was *not* on MotD's shitlist until he criticized M'Hunters behavior while also criticizing me):

hope it gets to Clan League council because if I mail MotD he will be SUPER pissed and not even look at it, and he removed me from his skype contacts.

At this point, MotD's go-to response to anyone bothering to say anything critical about CL or a CL team seems to blame them, tell them to "stop making drama," and do nothing about the problem itself.

I believe MotD's attitude can be summed up as "I'm already doing a lot. Don't make me do it right."

I'm not interested in helping prop up a league that deals with issues by telling people to stop bringing them up. When MotD and others criticized template choices in IPL, I reacted immediately- because I wasn't the kind of asshat who thinks he's already doing everyone a favor and I'd rather actually make things better. So yeah, no offense to MotD, but this is just my reasoning here. Hope you understand this as more of an explanation of why I'm stepping down from my frankly inconsequential role; I don't think MotD is the kind of person who likes to listen or improve, at least not within this context. Ah well. Y'all have fun.


EDIT4: Apologies to MotD for copypasting without removing his real name. Thanks to Jz for telling me about it. Fixed. If you see a version of that chat excerpt with MotD's name in there, please PM me so I can go back and redact it. Thanks!

Edited 7/23/2016 05:44:07

Knyte I agree, deadman is a horrible person

your updates were bad anyway

pizza man stop being mean :D

Edited 7/21/2016 13:52:47

@Seph: I'd appreciate it if you could detail a bit further so KKND doesn't make the same mistakes I made. Thanks!

3rd time is the charm?

Edited 7/22/2016 00:34:52

@knyte: Deadman wants to go from his house to knyte's and back. He travels the first half at 30km/h (~18.6411mph), but when he reaches knyte's house he realizes that he was too slow. At what speed should he travel the second half of the journey if he wants his average speed to be 60km/h (~37.2823mph)?

I don't think this is the place for standardized test/basic algebra help; if you're legitimately in need of that (I don't judge), PM me and I'll actually try to help you even if I don't think you're acting in good faith. Might be silly of me to extend this to someone who seems to want to burn a few bridges, but it's a strong belief of mine that education should be free and accessible to all... so I try to play my part by helping people that might need it. Easily abused system, I know, but I think it's worth it to still try and do something. :)

If you just want a short answer: sadly, it's impossible for MotD to go back fast enough to average 60 km/h. He was too slow the first half of the journey (no way to increase your average speed by a factor of x if you've already covered 1/x of the total distance of the journey). He can, however, still try his hardest and minimize the shortfall. Sometimes even futile actions are worth doing because, even if you short fall of your aim, you still achieve something. It's almost like real life that way- most of us already understand that we'll likely fall short of our childhood dreams. But we still carry on in that same direction because it reflects our values and gets us closer to where we wanted to be even if we don't quite make it there.

But I digress- move to PM if you actually need help (and yes, I'm completely serious here). I don't wanna be held responsible for clutter on another CL thread :P. That means I'll ignore any continuation here since I know you're at least capable of using PMs to communicate.

Edited 7/22/2016 02:14:27

then you should be able to at least understand the issue with this graph

also your updates were too long and very little informative

Edited 7/22/2016 02:30:07

EDIT3: Since people seem to still be curious, this is why:

- I got tired of Tabby spamming the Div D thread instead of scorekeeping. MotD blacklisted me as a result.

knyte, you weren't blacklisted for no reason. You had an issue not being handed scorekeeping duties in Group E and were giving the scorekeeper stick. I explained to you in PM that it was a misunderstanding and you seemed to be ok with it. And then I don't know what set you off again, but you went crazy on the Group D thread and started spamming yourself. This is the reason I've blacklisted you. You seem to flip-flop too much. One moment you are serious and want everyone to respect rules, and the next you exhibit the very same behavior which pisses you off. I don't think I can take you seriously after that and not many would blame me for it.

I criticized M'Hunters for their treatment of cheating. They personally attack me in response, with no response to the actual issue. MotD's response:

That is not my response. Afaik, I have never responded to you anywhere on a public forum. What I said, was done so in a private chat. It is however my opinion. Are you telling me I am not entitled to one? Why do you get offended by an opinion when you clearly have an opinion about everything on planet earth? Also nice job quoting only a piece of the conversation. Pretty much everyone on that chat had a similar opinion, but "hey!, who cares about that right? Today I want to hate on MotD"

M'Hunters are likely cheating. I documented it to send things to MotD (and later opened it to the public when I found out MotD doesn't wanna listen and sees all of this as me wanting to create drama or having a personal vendetta- like I want to be on the shitlist of every elitist on this site)- http://bit.ly/mh-cl8-cheating. No salt. Tried to get it to MotD for review. This is the response I get from someone helping me (who was *not* on MotD's shitlist until he criticized M'Hunters behavior while also criticizing me):

I've never been presented with that information. So what gives you the idea that "MotD doesn't want to listen"? I've looked at it now and we'll discuss it among ourselves after we resolve a current problem we're working through.

That person is free to send me PMs on WL. I just do not wish to keep WL folks on my skype list anymore, unless I know them very well. What I do with my skype account is none of your business.

At this point, MotD's go-to response to anyone bothering to say anything critical about CL or a CL team seems to blame them, tell them to "stop making drama," and do nothing about the problem itself.

I believe MotD's attitude can be summed up as "I'm already doing a lot. Don't make me do it right."

I'm not interested in helping prop up a league that deals with issues by telling people to stop bringing them up. When MotD and others criticized template choices in IPL, I reacted immediately- because I wasn't the kind of asshat who thinks he's already doing everyone a favor and I'd rather actually make things better. So yeah, no offense to MotD, but this is just my reasoning here. Hope you understand this as more of an explanation of why I'm stepping down from my frankly inconsequential role; I don't think MotD is the kind of person who likes to listen or improve, at least not within this context. Ah well. Y'all have fun.

ah there we go again. A bunch of personal attacks coz Mr. opinions just wants to rant. You do not know what goes on behind the scenes. So how about you stop being so judgmental? Many people have come to me with numerous questions/asks over the last month and I have always given them time. You're welcome to search for someone who had a legitimate concern and I did not talk/reason with them.

It's been less than 24 hours since that allegation. Is your expectation that the CL panel looks at every issue within 24 hours? Coz if so, it is unreasonable and I'm sure I'll disappoint you soon again.

Also, I'm not interested in getting into a war of words with you. You've clearly demonstrated that you are a great keyboard warrior who can make more forum posts in a day than most people do in a lifetime on Warlight. So I accept defeat. If this explanation doesn't clear things up, feel free to insult me again.

@Sephiroth: (I apologize in advance for the word count/length, but I'd really, really appreciate it if you'd skim and clarify) I'm not entirely sure you're saying about the graph- there's multiple ways it could go. Are we talking about it creating intuitive assumptions (like "If WG play at a 75% win rate from now on, they can hit 50%?) that are wrong? Success rate = points won/points contested, so going by v = d/t, this is analogous to a graph of velocity over time. Those graphs are widely used and do convey useful data- like acceleration (the analogous thing here, a change in success rate, is pretty useful for picking up changes in our knowledge and understanding of clan performance). I mean, to simplify things, here's how I arrived at this point:

- Points vs. Time Graph is standard, it gives us an idea of where clans are at a given update period in terms of points won. But some clans play significantly faster/slower than others and consequently inflate/deflate their apparent performance on this graph.



On this chart (from Division D a week ago), you see that with Dutch. They look like they're at a better place than they really are, 'cause they've contested more points.

- So I tried Points vs. Points Contested, because now it puts everyone on the same clock.



This one helps you see that the Juggernauts have actually been outperforming the Dutch for a while. There's also that dotted "ceiling" line indicating the max points possible at that many points contested. If we just take the slice below that ceiling and rescale it so that the ceiling touches the top (100%), we end up with this graph-

- Success Rate vs. Points Contested



This mainly exaggerates/makes clearer the differences between clans, since being ahead by 3 points 30 points in is different from being ahead by 3 points 90 points in. Like you pointed out, the amount of uncontested points places constraints on how much improvement's actually possible for a competing team. So that's the advantage I saw to that particular visualization.

Or even more simply, it's just rescaling a win rates vs. time graph to account for differences in play speed.

Sorry if I'm being daft here; I'd just appreciate a little bit of clarification since I actually don't understand. It'd be genuinely helpful.

I agree on brevity. I hadn't really looked at everything beforehand so part of it was just me figuring things out. In Division D, I tried to go a bit more in depth but here, well, I might've been out of my depth and unable to make up for it. :/

---

@MotD: I can see where I'm in the wrong here. Apologies for repeatedly railing on you in my frustration. It seems to me that there was some avoidable miscommunication on both our parts, then, and I accept full responsibility for the large chunk of it that happened on my end. At least on my end, I was projecting some malice and disdain onto your behavior, so I'll also freely admit that I'm probably in the wrong there too. I believe you were projecting some of that onto me as well... but then again I don't know the extent of your views beyond the very limited information I have. I'd be more than happy to avoid this issue, though; it seems like I've crossed a few lines already.

Edited 7/22/2016 03:29:03

knyte, I think you should move this to a game chat or some other means of communication. Let's keep Clan League division threads uncluttered.

I agree with Great Expanse.

https://www.warlight.net/Forum/168387-call-exclude-mhunters-community-events?Offset=108

Also, take a look at this important info-graph thing:



TL;DR, Thanks for the updates whoever's doing it!

Interesting...very innovative graph AG. Thanks.

More Clan League Group A Drama -_-

I miss Dead mans updates ): I liked his simple format

@USA Biches: I really miss Deadman's updates too. )=

I may write him a private message to ask him if he could do them again.