haha xD

I have no clue who Marc Ross is. I don't even have his profile link as a matter of fact. Also, MoD, who siad you are a good player ;)

In seriousness through, I used the rating you had when you entered your last played ladder game. In your case that is significantly lower then your peak. (about 1900 compered to 2300) Due to this I picked a player with a high StdDev, (so few games). Point is, the prediction probably undervalues you. (21% chance of last place...) I know it is wrong, but I would rather be consistent with the principle I stated earlier.

To estimate a player with another one ? Furthermore with very suspicious similarities, and with very few and incomplete data... Why you have chosen Marc Ross so TBest ? These predictions have no sense. There is no good tool without common sense even if your simulation tool seems to be interesting. ;)

Timi, you are a very good player, but you seem to be very mulish too. Maybe it's why you're not the best. I organize that and try to do this pleasant to all. I didn't choose templates I like or I'm good. I didn't do that without asking for some advices. I'm not here to debate longer of all or a part of them now (too late) and still less to hear your condescension.

I do not get tired more. Play or do not play, you will be invited to the two tournaments anyway.

Edited 7/3/2016 23:52:36

First match series have been created.

Tournament links:

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19721
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19726
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19725
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19723
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19724
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19727

To estimate a player with another one ? Furthermore with very suspicious similarities, and with very few and incomplete data... Why you have chosen Marc Ross so TBest ? These predictions have no sense. There is no good tool without common sense even if your simulation tool seems to be interesting. ;)

I could have treated MoD as an unknow player. But this makes even less sense /: then MoD's prediction would have looked like this "

6 SexMachineRJ                  0.0    3.20    3.87    4.44   20  8  4  3  6 59"

So that option is no good. I choose MarcRoss becoes he was closest to the Last rating MoD had on the 1v1 ladder. So while inaccurate, better then nothing. But yes, the tool is only good for the players who have unexpired games on the 1v1 ladder. And this is alos the first time I am trying this, so I am curious as to how accurate it will turn out to be. (Besides, accuracy is never there anyway. Skill on one template don't equal skill on another.)

What is the tool you use for your simulations ? I don't think ladder stat is a very good thing to make predictions, so all this seems crap to me, but maybe the tool is ok. I would be curious to see that.

I wrote about it here. https://www.warlight.net/Forum/159812-clan-league-8-division-c-official-thread?Offset=160 , and the next page in that thread.
You will see a few more predictions there. And you also see what happens when you have unknown players... which is why I choose to use an existing player here.

http://www.remi-coulom.fr/Bayesian-Elo/

^the tool that is used for making the ratings on the ladder. This also includes a RR prediction tool. It is that prediction tool that I am using. This means it is very easy to take the ladder data http://data.warlight.net/Data/BayeseloLog0.txt and predict things. After all the Data is already in the right format.

Edited 7/4/2016 22:13:09

TY

Update after one week.




- hedja got two boots already and will have hard time to reach round 2.
- Summer beats Verzehrer who seems not so in shape currently.
- Wazz beats INSIDE
- MIFRAN beats AI
- Panagiotis beats fireice82 and fireice82 beats SexMachineRJ.

No surprise for now. The round 2 stay open for everyone.

Edited 7/11/2016 13:20:52

Update

#G1
MotD 2-0
Krzychu 1-0
KKND 1-0
Sultan 1-1
Tbest 0-0
hedja 0-4

#G2
timon92 1-0
Mirror 0-0
Timinator 0-0
FlyingBender 0-0
Farah 0-0
Rakleader 0-1

#G3
Wazz 1-0
Mike 0-0
USA Bitches 0-0
Smoove 0-0
Ryiro 0-0
INSIDE 0-1

#G4
Mister T 2-1
Nox 2-1
Summer 1-1
Verzehrer 1-1
MoD 0-0
Beren 0-2

#G5
Buns157 2-0
GreenTea 2-1
PanagiotisTheGreekFreak 1-0
fireice82 1-2
SexMachine 0-1
linberson 0-2

#G6
Phaeril 2-0
MIFRAN 2-1
AI 1-1
Nackickwind 0-0
Quicksand 0-1
Peixoto 0-2

Edited 7/15/2016 10:54:46

07/21/2016

#G1
Krzychu 3-0
MotD 3-1
Sultan 2-2
Tbest 2-1
KKND 1-2
hedja 0-5

#G2
timon92 1-0
Mirror 1-0
Timinator 0-0
FlyingBender 0-0
Farah 0-0
Rakleader 0-2

#G3
Wazz 1-0
USA Bitches 1-0
Mike 0-0
Smoove 0-0
Ryiro 0-0
INSIDE 0-2

#G4
Mister T 2-1
Verzehrer 2-1
Nox 2-2
Summer 1-1
MoD 0-0
Beren 0-2

#G5
Buns157 2-0
PanagiotisTheGreekFreak 2-0
GreenTea 2-1
fireice82 1-2
SexMachine 0-2
linberson 0-2

#G6
Phaeril 3-0
MIFRAN 2-1
Nackickwind 1-0
AI 1-1
Quicksand 0-2
Peixoto 0-3

Edited 7/21/2016 14:20:24

In G2 there is only one win(Timon) and two losses (rakleader) and in G3 there are 2 wins and one loss - mistakes i suppose

Shame about Peixoto, all 3 games he lost by boot when he was in a winning position.

Hum... I would say no Buns. Do you really think I was behind Peixoto ? I think I was in a better position than him in picks with a FTB and his impossibility to take his two bonuses and advance in front of me in the two first turns when I take Kenga and could advance with more Rhodia. He should be far behind in picks if he didn't get a safe position that I haven't, but I think he couldn't exploit it correctly without to be block in front of me.

AI was in a better position considering easier bonuses to take around his position. Just 1 reinforcement less but a so better position.

For MIFRAN I agree with you but MIFRAN was not so far behind. This turn should be decisive.

But in any cases, it's shame to get booted three times with a real chance to win in all his games.

PS: edited, thank you Krzychu.

03/08/2016

#G1
Krzychu 4-0
MotD 3-1
Sultan 2-2
Tbest 2-2
KKND 1-2
hedja 0-5

#G2
timon92 3-0
Mirror 1-1
FlyingBender 1-2
Rakleader 1-2
Farah 0-1
Timinator X

#G3
Mike 4-0
USA Bitches 3-0
Wazz 2-2
Smoove 2-1
INSIDE 1-4
Ryiro 0-5

#G4
Mister T 2-1
Verzehrer 2-1
Nox 2-2
Summer 1-1
MoD 0-0
Beren 0-2

#G5
Buns157 5-0
GreenTea 3-1
PanagiotisTheGreekFreak 2-1
linberson 2-2
fireice82 1-4
SexMachine 0-5

#G6
Phaeril 5-0
MIFRAN 3-1
Nackickwind 1-1
AI 2-2
Peixoto 0-3
Quicksand 0-4

Edited 8/4/2016 21:31:40

Your top paragraph doesn't make sense? Well at least to me.

Anyway thanks for the update.

Ok, so I deleated it. Nervermind.^^

Players got invitations for the second session of tournaments. Please check your tournaments.

update with the first and second shot of tournaments.

08/22/2016

#G1
Krzychu 6-0
Sultan 3-2
Tbest 3-2
MotD 3-3
KKND 1-4
hedja 0-5

#G2
timon92 3-0
FlyingBender 2-2
Rakleader 2-2
Mirror 2-3
Timinator 1-0
Farah 0-3


#G3
Mike 5-0
USA Bitches 4-1
Wazz 2-2
Smoove 2-2
INSIDE 1-4
Ryiro 0-5

#G4
Mister T 4-1
Nox 3-3
Verzehrer 2-2
Beren 2-2
MoD 2-3
Summer 2-4

#G5
Buns157 6-0
PanagiotisTheGreekFreak 4-1
GreenTea 3-2
linberson 2-2
fireice82 1-5
SexMachine 0-6

#G6
Phaeril 5-0
Nackickwind 3-1
MIFRAN 3-2
AI 2-3
Quicksand 1-4
Peixoto 0-4

Phaeril is busy so I offered to do some bad updates for him for the time being. The numbers represent the first tournament then second and then them both combined.

Group one:

Krzychu 5-0 1-0 6-0
Sultan 3-2 0-0 3-2
Tbest 3-2 0-0 3-2
MotD 3-2 0-1 3-3
KKND 1-4 0-0 1-4
hedja 0-5 - 0-5

Chu is looking likely to come first in this group, and possibly sweeping both tournaments too! Leaving Sultan, Tbest and motd to compete for 2nd with very close scores so far, the matches between these guys are the most important ones. KKND still has a chance for second unlike Hedja who has lost and booted in everything so far and has decided to dropout declining the second tournament.

Group two:

timon92 3-0 0-0 3-0
Rakleader 2-2 1-0 3-2
Mirror 2-2 0-1 3-2
FlyingBender 2-2 0-1 2-3
Timinator - 1-0 1-0
Farah 0-3 0-0 0-3

Not as much progress in this group but timon looks likely to win. With Rakleader and Mirror currently competing for second place. FlyingBender lost to Rakleader in the second tournament which could end up denying him a promotion spot. Lastly, there is Farah and Timi who are both very unlikely to promote, with Timinator skipping the commander tournament and farah winless so far.

I might do the rest of the groups, but I'm too lazy to do them all at once.

Edited 8/27/2016 21:03:40