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Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-27 19:12:32


Epicular
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@Kebab

Voting Clinton is voting for war.

Insulting leaders doesn't start war.


Trump may or may not start wars by insulting other leaders, but the much more likely scenario is Trump receiving an insult that drives him to start wars. I'm sure you know how thin his skin is; Hillary baits him all the time.

Where is all this "voting Hillary is voting for war" shit coming from? Why is it automatically assumed that Hillary is going to go out and start a bunch of wars for no good reason? Don't even mention her vote for the Iraq invasion, since Trump's running mate voted in favor of that invasion too.

There is no evidence to support that Trump is a rapist, isn't it weird how all these rape accusations are only coming out when Trump decides to run for president? The past 40 years no one has said anything about rape except now, that's strange.


That's entirely due to the Trump tape being released. It made one or two people feel confident enough to come forward, which spurred a chain reaction. Same thing happened with Bill Cosby. Same thing happened with Roger Ailes. Suggesting that this isn't the same kind of situation with Trump and that it's instead an elaborate liberal conspiracy would be foolish.

Killing people? You mean Hillary? Lol

Since you're the master on where the evidence is at, trying to claim that there's any hard evidence that Hillary herself actually killed people is completely, entirely, 100% hypocritical. You can deny that Trump is a rapist, since it's true that no hard evidence supporting that exists yet- but there's also no evidence against Hillary. You can't excuse Trump then turn around and blame Hillary when they're in similar situations. That's called a double standard.
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-27 21:36:16


DerWyyy
Level 56
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Trump has had to much mistakes. Miss Universe, bus tape, racism, making fun of disabled etc. he wont win.

fivethirtyeight is not biased. they state the truth you cannot handle
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-27 22:37:50


Remove Kebab
Level 58
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Hillary wants a no fly zone in Syria but that would require us to go to war with Russia and Syria, generals have even said that.

Hillary has messed up Libya.

The media is biased against Trump, 40 years is more than enough to speak out, and there's been like 10 women so far, and considering the media pays people to protest Trump, it's not unlikely that the accusations against Trump are false.

And Trump isn't racist, he supports Mexicans and blacks, even Obamas half brother endorses Trump.
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-27 22:53:05


Жұқтыру
Level 56
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Went to war with a core power? I miss something?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_North-West_Pakistan

though it's not quite right to say that it's war with Pakistan, Pakistan specifically said they wouldn't let America in, and most Pakis believe that they're at war with America. I think the actual phrase is "violating international sovereignty of a core power".

how much do they pay you to shill on Mongolian Yurt building forums?


rats he found our HQ

http://www.yurtforum.com/forums/

trump will win motivates anti-Trump voters, so the more you say it, the less likely it is to be true.


Yes the more motivation behind a voter the more his vote will count. I heard that Lukashenka was so motivated to re-elect himself that all the other votes combined weren't worth as much.

One motivated man.

at-least he's more peaceful in policy.


uh no. That's all there is to it, the only bit more peaceful than Clinton is that he wants calmer relations with Russia, but last I checked, they weren't at war anyway. He's still for going on with the war in all the countries USA is in. Let's also not forget his policy on ignoring war conventions.

would require us to go to war with Russia and Syria


oh yes denying military access to a country to a semi-strategic foreign land will bring war, not crippling sanctions. And I think Clinton said something like she would only attack SAR if it was internationally approved.

The media is biased against Trump


uh there's loads of media. But not in Russian-paid.

Trump isn't racist


oh yes the man who said Christians and Americans would go first in American policy isn't racist, not at all.
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-27 23:50:39


Eklipse
Level 57
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An American president wanting to focus on Americans?!

How racist!
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-28 00:03:32


Жұқтыру
Level 56
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not focus, put first*

to be fair though, that's nearly every American president or their rhetor since the beginning

Edited 10/28/2016 00:04:05
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-28 00:09:18


Richard Sharpe 
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Focusing on Americans isn't the worst approach. Focusing on Christians (or any religion) is. Flies directly in the face of the Constitution
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-28 00:22:30


Remove Kebab
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If a certain religion is dangerous, we shall ups focus on that religion.

Focusing on American is the best approach? !

Globalism will end when Trump gets elected.

Another reason to vote Trump.
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-28 03:42:25


DerWyyy
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many world leaders said they dislike Trump(except Putin). Libya was messed up before hillary and Benghazi. and yes, Donald J Trump is indeed racist...and sexist....
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-28 05:04:54


Major General Smedley Butler
Level 51
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The advantage of non-democracy is not having to put up with this bs every four years
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-28 10:17:33


Remove Kebab
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^ That's why America should be Fascist
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-28 21:27:32


Math Wolf 
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My 5 cents on fivethirtyeight as I follow the site closely:
fivethirtyeight is not biased

I think the correct statement would be: fivethirtyeight tries to be as unbiased as possible.
We can't claim or know that they are unbiased. Just like most polling firms and data aggregation sites, they have done a lot right and made some mistakes.
They try to look at polls as scientifically and statistically rigorous as possible, but that doesn't mean it's automatically correct. They are probably the most likely to be correct, but that doesn't mean they automatically are.

It's fun to claim that they did so well in previous elections, but Nate Silver himself would be the first one to tell you that this doesn't mean much. The sample size of American elections is small and polling misses happen regularly (see the latest British elections, the Brexit was NOT a polling miss, any reasonable polling aggregator had it a very close race and it ended up being very close (the margin of error was only about 2%))

Also not that fivethirtyeight is nor was claiming that Clinton would win the elections. Last time I checked, she was pretty constant at about 85% to win. This gives Trump about 15% to win which was about the same pregame probability that San Antonio would defeat Golden State (which they did). Again, this paragraph is loosely based on something Nate Silver himself wrote.



On a more general note, the election still needs to happen. Clinton is more likely to win than Trump at this point based on the data that we have. But the range of outcomes is wide (see fivethirtyeight on this, there are multiple articles in which they explain this again and again). Trump could win if some things go right for him, including some of the claims made in this topic. Clinton could win in a landslide if some things go right for her, including some of the claims made in this topic. It is impossible to perfectly model everything that could influence the results and particularly turnout among demographic groups, the driving force behind a lot of the unknown variation. Fivethirtyeight nor most other sites are claiming Clinton will win, not even jokingly. They (correctly) claim she's the current favourite the win but that the outcome is subject to this unknown variation.

My advice for Trump supporters would be to accept that he is behind, but that the election is not lost yet. If you want him to win, you waste your time yelling on the internet about rigged polls and media. Instead, try to invigorade the base and make sure you and your fellow supporters vote.

My advice for Clinton supporters would be to accept that the election is not won (yet). If you want her to win, you should not try to argue on the internet about how Trump supporters are desillusional. You may be equally desillusional. Instead, go out and make sure that everyone who supports her actually goes out to vote.

Note, this is exactly what the Clinton campaign is actively doing the last few weeks, but the Trump campaign isn't. This is a reason why some media claim Clinton may be more likely to win than polls indicate (her likely voters would be more likely to vote according to that theory). An opposing theory would be that Trump supporters are already more riled up and ready to vote and don't need an extra push.
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-29 21:42:12


125ch209 
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Fivethirtyeight did have a great record on the last 2 elections, not so much on this one.
If i'm correct Nate Silver put Hillary at 99+% chance to win michigan in the primary, yet Bernie Sanders won the state in probably the greatest upset in us primaries history.

The thing is, polls don't matter as much now as it did in the past, not because they are rigged, but because the polling methods didn't follow society's evolution and are not that accurate anymore.
For example, most polls are still done over hard line phone calls. Well the demographics of people responding to hard line phone calls has shifted a lot in the recent years and is not a very good representation of the general population.

Nate silver's algorithme gives more or less weight to different polls depending on how recent it is, what methods it used , etc, wich is good but not enough. As far as i know his predictions are based only on polls, but fails to integrate other factors. With these 2 candidates, the way they run their campains, the news bombs droping every week on both candidates makes predictions very difficult. Now you can have a "chartist" approach to polls and say that all of the information is already contained in the numbers, but the versatility of the political news about this election make it so that, in reality, the numbers have a hard time catching up.

Trump is still toasted though ;)
Trump is leading the polls: 2016-10-30 06:54:43

Pulsey
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Trump will have to pull off major upsets. Not just 1 single upset in the overall vote percentage, but repeatedly in various states.

He's on track to win Iowa, Arizona, Utah, Georgia and Ohio.

He'll have to come from behind to win Nevada, North Carolina and Florida.

And thats not enough.

Then he'll have to grab a Blue State like Colorado, New Hampshire or Pennsylvania.

Whilst making sure he doesn't lose a single red. And only then will he barely scrape it, so no margin for error.

Its possible for him to get a few upsets here and there if he has a good night, but all of them together? Very hard, we'll have to see.

Edited 10/30/2016 06:55:28
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