Been a while since a thread like this, so here is a kinda cool board.



Settings:

Strat ME with randomized bonuses, so take into account its weighted random for picks.

I think i'd try antarctica, SA, Greenland, canada, western africa, scandinavia.

SA looks very good cause it counters most good bonuses. If i get SA and antarctica, antarctica will be safe.

boston triple

I would pick Scandinavia, Mexico, and Russia as main 3. Mostly for the starter bonuses. But idk what i would do after i get those bonuses. I would prolly get rekt

Russia? :S

1st ANT: Very strong bonus like this
2nd: SA: Secures ANT and has a very strong position. Important to have a counter to Africa.
3rd: Scandi: Quick bonus that gives access to Greenland. Could also be used to counter Greenland.
4th: Greenland: If I miss scandi I still want to be in the area. Plus it is imo pretty likely I'll miss either my first or second pick, so this makes sure I either get both Scandi and Greenland or I have info on one of the two boni
5th: East Africa
6th: West Africa.


I'm not entirely happy with these picks, but I haven't found a nice set yet. :/

I agree with Min34

1,2 SA,ANT is good, but can it beat 1,2 West china, Russia? The latter has a decent chance of +7 (West China) after turn 2. If that lands then there's a chance of +6 (Russia) after turn 4. That's 18 to deploy on turn 5, and a chance nobody is near the income. Nasty.

B, what would you pick?

That "decent chance" is 41%. Not enough at least for me.

My opinion:
1.SA
2.WA
3.Ant
4.Gre
5.Can
6.Scn

1. Antarctica
2. Greenland
3. Canada
4. West Africa
5. East Africa
6. South America

Would've picked like this if It was one of my games, dunno if I had changed it after reading the thread though ^^

Greenland seems likely to be countered, and I third Min34's picks.

The odds calculation of taking West China as a double pick in two turns is a bit complex. Maybe 41% is about right.

In the full calculation we must consider each case for the number of armies lost in the 3 attacks during turn 1 (3 lost:21.6%, 4 lost:43.2%, 5 lost:28.8%, 6 lost:6.4%).

Does anybody have a tool for this type of calculation?

With my calculation i got to ~15% chance.

Turn 1 you need 2 times to lose only 1 army on the attack (60% chance to lose only 1. If you take the 3rd chance in account that percentage is slightly higher) gives 36% for that already. Also, you need a 3vs2 to work first turn (80% chance). Turn 2 you need another 3 attacks of 3vs2 to work (80% each). That all vombined gives 14.7%, which would be slightly lower than the true value since i just calculated the first turn with 2 attacks who have both to lose only 1 army instead of 3 attacks of whose only 2 lose min armies.

Edit: it's not 75% wr or something, just 0%wr i think, so the suggested percentages for 4, 5 etc armies are wrong

Edited 3/21/2017 06:11:24

Yes, I think the true odds are much closer to 15% than 41%. So the West China combo is probably no good.

I like the way you described your calculation: it's practical. However, for the sake of math (not practicality), I think the figures I gave are correct? They assume 0% WR and three attacks of at least 3 on turn 1. In each attack, the 2 neutrals kill an expected 2*.7(defensive kill rate) = 1.4 armies. The WR setting resolves this to 1 whole army 60% of the time and 2 whole armies 40% of the time. So in each attack either 1 or 2 player armies are lost.

So in 3 attacks the possible outcomes are 3,4,5,6 armies lost, right?

Edited 3/21/2017 07:25:47

Yes but if you lose 5 or 6 armies, you need a 2vs2 to work on turn 2 which reduces the odds drastically, cause a 2vs2 (or even 2 of them) has only a chance of about 10% to work

1. Antarctica
2. Greenland
3. Canada
4. West Africa
5. East Africa
6. South America

Would've picked like this if It was one of my games, dunno if I had changed it after reading the thread though ^^

Same picks with Yulian

Here is the actual game, played rt between me and styx.

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=13141254

1) SA
2) Greenland
3) Can
4) Ant
5) WA
6) NA

I would get complete intel on both of you :)

Edited 3/21/2017 21:35:04