http://www.3dkingdoms.com/chess/elo.htm According to that, expected winrate is roughly 97%
I admittedly grabbed 20 out of thin air though, it wasn't a calculated #, or even a serious claim, though it does actually look to be fairly accurate. I'd have to beat him 32 times for every loss to have my elo rating increase from such games.
I don't think whether I'd be expected to win 15 in a row, or 20, or 31 though is actually meaningful. The key point is that I don't feel someone who's never achieved any sort of success at something should be speaking in regards to what it takes to achieve success at that thing.
@Knyte: I see no evidence you've ever beaten top players, but even if you have, the evidence is certainly not looking like you win such games over 5% of the time.
That was what I said. I wasn't implying he'd only win 1 in 400 games, or that I'd win a 20 game series 95% of the time. I was suggesting that beating me 1 in 20, was akin to beating people as good or better than me 5% of the time.
Beren stating Cata beat him once similarly doesn't really show anything other than that Cata has a chance to win, it doesn't really factor into how high that chance is. Though really the whole topic is silly. It wasn't intended to come across as "Look how much better I am than Cata". That's not a high pole to leap, it's not something overly worth trying to prove. The point was, you're not educated enough on the topic to have a valid opinion on the topic.
Edited 9/11/2017 16:30:40