What happened was a mixture of a shiton of factors:
- Turnout of white evangelicals was lower by a few % points because of the terrible candidate fielded in
- Whites voted more for the democratic candidate than usually, Jones beated average democratic candidates by several % points, and this was probably the main extra vote gathering for him because of the voting flip, one vote for a democrat instead of an usual republican counts double, since it's -1 for Sessions and +1 for Jones.
- Blacks turnout was very high for this type of election, Jones was a lot more attractive to them than average democratic candidates while his republican conterpart was worse than average.
- Hidden democrats come out to vote, usually these are voters that don't vote because Alabama is so conservative that their candidates are never able to win, when they saw there was a chance for Jones to win, they got out to vote.
- Write ins were a factor, but I wouldn't put it as a decisive factor since no one voting for these candidates thought it would win, it's more of a protest vote, if given only the choice between Sessions and Jones, these voters wouldn't have voted.
- Trump and the GOP's low popularity also entered in factor, even in Alabama he's losing core supporters, and that impacts negatively the republican vote. To put in context, ammoung polled voters, the president's popularity was 48%, in freaking Alabama.
All of this combined produced the final result, but I guess you can talk stats over and over, but at the end of the day if Moore wasn't a paedophile the republicans would've won...
GJ on electing a pro-abortion Democrat in Alabama: 2017-12-16 12:46:32
