- x - = +
- + - = -

So, the question is, are we multiplying or adding?
According to mathematical language of probability, 'and' means you multiply.
So it's positive.

According to mathematical language of probability, 'and' means you multiply.

If you are talking about the events. If the 'and' refers to the probabilities, it's actually a plus.
P(X = 1 and Y = 1) = P(X = 1) . P(Y = 1)
P(X = 1) 'and' P(Y = 1) = P(X = 1) + P(Y = 1) - P(X = 1) . P(Y = 1) = P(X = 1 or Y = 1)
(all under independence of X and Y)

I hate this game and I hate clan league

In Rikku's example, with P(... = 1) means I hate, X = this game, and Y = clan league, I would arguably say the construction of his sentence may be the second case (sum) rather than the first case (multiplication), but it's not all that clear really.

So please continue this discussion until we have full clarity of the situation! :-)

EDIT: and can we actually assuming the hating of this game and clan league are independent? I think they aren't, in which case both rules are not correct and we have to include the correlation of hating both, which I assume is positive.

Edited 5/12/2018 10:01:51

Comprehensive Update III:

I almost forgot to do this today. My bad.

I did say I as going to do these on Fridays, but I guess I am doing them on Saturdays instead. Neat.

I feel tired and sluggish right now. I want to go to bed. Ugh. I feel as tired and sluggish as FCC's performance has been. Still only one win, with the midseason approaching. Hmmm... Well, anyway, I think a brewed a bit of controversy over a decision I made, to not replace an inactive player in Volcano Island 2v2 until after midseason, effectively giving up 8 free points. Some people are clearly seeing this as a poor decision, since FCC seems to be giving up free points. Which is true. But with 6 substitutions remaining, and midseason upcoming, I am willing to sacrifice 8 points for a better shot at 8 points in the future. FCC doesen't have anyone capable to take over the slot. Knowing the intensity that players take these games, I don't see any feasible way for FCC to win those games anyway. It therefore justifies waiting until a more capable player can be slotted in at the midseason. The odds gained by having an extra slot on hand might outweigh the odds gained by replacing the slot now and losing a slot at the midseason.

This may go against the spirit of clan league. All games should be covered, right? Well, consider this a bit of an experiment, then. What should a clan do with limited substitutions before the midseason, have players of a higher calibur after the midseason, and need to sub in now? If FCC is likely going to demote anyway, now is as good of a time as ever to try and experiment with this a bit. As they say, you don't know if you don't try...

And maybe this is pretty obvious mistake to everyone in warzone and their brother. I am usually prone to obvious mistakes. But, I am committed to this now, so let my errors shine so that they may not happen again...

In any case, you guys can choose to debate whether this is a good idea or not. It make for some interesting discussion. And sure, this may make me the worst manager in CL right now. But as all modelers know... Garbage in == Garbage out. There wasn't much of a chance to begin with.

Anyway, here is what is going on as of now with the scores:

Quick Update: By Points Scored:

TJC 			33
Sninja			32
WG			27
Statisticians		16
Hydra			12
FCC			3

Quick Update: By Max Points:

Sninja			197
TJC			187
Statisticians		185
WG			185
Hydra			170
FCC			153

Completed Games: (Bold detonates winner)

TJC is now first in points scored and second in max points. They definitely have something going on. Its still thisclose between the top four clans. Meanwhile, the divide between FCC and Hydra continues to grow. Now at 17 points, the hole grows deeper.

Finished Games:

1v1: Guiroma


Statisticains vs Hydra		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15594095 (5/7)
Hydra vs Sninja			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15526313 (5/9)
Hydra vs WG			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15594095	 (5/12)


1v1: French Brawl

TJC vs Statisticians		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15573142	 (5/10)

1v1: Elitist Africa:

WG vs FCC		 	https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15478681 (5/12)
TJC vs FCC		 	https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15546768 (5/9)

2v2: Final Earth

Nothing doing...

2v2 Volcano Island

Sninja vs FCC 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15580813 (5/10)

2v2 Szeurope

"knocks on door".... 
Aura: Any progress today?
Group B: Nope
Aura: :(

3v3 Europe

C'mon guys. Super Smoove wanted to analyze more 3v3 Erope games.... you turds... smh.

3v3 Biomes

I guess they were baffled by the bonus system so much that no one were incapable of finishing games this week...

Edited 5/14/2018 02:04:34

The Horse Race:



Progressions:



Analysis:

Milly has been the workhorse for Hyrdra thus far, providing the clan with 12 of its 12 points. Also, having lost less games than FCC, it currently holds a solid edge against its competitor for relegation. A free four points from FCC look to help it further in this fight. Unless something drastic changes after midseason, FCC seems to be a lock for relegation at this point.

The top four continues to hold for a close race. There has not been really much change. The divide between statisticians and the three above didn't change much, keeping them in fighting distance for a promotion slot. Needless to say, its reasonable to think that none of these clans should fear relegation at this point, especially with hydra and FCC trying their utmost to lose games to insure of this fate.

Besides milly's games, its been mostly a quiet week for the rest of the division, with only 4 other 1v1s completed, and a team game "completed". Hopefully we get a bit more action this week. We shall see.

Otherwise, I need to sleep guys. Peace.

Edited 5/13/2018 07:02:21

The link on Hydra vs Stats for Guiroma 1v1 is not correct. And Stats should be bold type there :)

Edited 5/14/2018 01:29:40

Best stalling trick ever:
Outstall you staller opponent for various turns - even if this mean you have to commit1' before auto
then suddenly in a turn commit hours before auto
He will be confused and get booted

Game link with such experience?

On my fav, the season game

Heads up to other clans, I won't go worse than 12-3

Quote me on this when I get booted from 4 games :)

[WG] must stand for [Worst Gamers] because they suck.

If you take Worst as meaning - Then if you take the modulus of that it becomes positive.
Wait no, that is a vector/matrice

Edited 5/18/2018 00:43:52

101st must stand for how many attempts it took you to think of even the most barely passable insult.

Ouch, I didn't expect Hydra to fail this hard. :x On the other hand... their competition isn't that easy either.
Good job so far, TJC!

Comprehensive Update IV:

Soooup!

Guys, I just created a delicious soup today. Let me describe it. I started with two poblano peppers. Diced them up. Threw them in the bottom of the saucepan and browned em in a little butter. Then i chopped up some carrots, celery, and spinich and added it in there. For taste, 3 cloves of garlic minced. Put in a tablespoon in a half of vegtable base (carrot, tomato, onion base) and let her simmer. I put in a little too much carrot so the broth ended up sweeter than ideal, but it made for a delicious, hearty vegetable soup with a little bit of zing in it from the poblanos. I couldent taste much of the celery tho. RIP.

So, there are quite a bit of flavors in this soup of a division B. We have the carrots (Sninja), the plobanos (TJC), the spinich (statisticains), the soup base (WG), the garlic (Hydra), and the Celery(FCC). Its a nice set of flavors that do make for a delicious soup, but dang that carrot definitely protruding through the texture.

Anyway, it seems little has changed in the status or direction these clans are heading on. It continues to look to be an intense three clan race for the second slot, with Sninja still hanging strong to the lead.

So here is where we are:

Quick Update: By Points Scored:

TJC 			39
WG			39
Sninja			35
Statisticians		22
Hydra			18
FCC			3

Quick Update: By Max Points:

Sninja			197
TJC			181
Statisticians		180
WG			179
Hydra			163
FCC			144

Completed Games: (Bold detonates winner)

TJC and and WG may have the points lead, but Sninja didn't lose a game either, which is more telling. Its safe to say that 1st is Sninja's slot to lose at this point. TJC holds a slight edge over stats and wg, but they still have to fight fiercely to ward off the close competition if they desire to promote. News from FCC notes that dippy has now gone inactive and is proceeding to boot from clan league games. Their stupid clan leader still refuses to flip out the slot. RIP and here comes 0-6 on Elitist Africa and 1-5 on Guiroma. Take out one more 2v2 game and there's the last nail on the probable relegation coffin.

Finished Games:

1v1: Guiroma


Statisticians vs FCC		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15526314 (5/13)
Sninja vs FCC			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15594097 (5/13)
TJC vs WG			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15526315 (5/13)
Statisticians vs TJC		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15594096 (5/17)

1v1: French Brawl

Hydra vs WG			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15573141 (5/13)
WG vs TJC			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15642525 (5/19)

1v1: Elitist Africa:

Hydra vs FCC		 	https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15615225 (5/19)
TJC vs Hydra		 	https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15478680 (5/19)

2v2: Final Earth

Care for a cuppa tea?

2v2 Volcano Island

WG vs Hydra 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15580811 (5/16)

2v2 Szeurope

They must of not have completed a game in fear that szeweningen would think 
they were not taking the template seriously enough.

3v3 Europe

WG vs Statisticians 		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15540389 (5/16)

3v3 Biomes

Are they done yet? Are they done yet? Are they done yet? Are they done yet? Are they done yet? Are they...

Edited 5/20/2018 16:06:07

Progressions:



Horse Race:



Analysis:

Someone grab the AED! FCC has flatlined!

No change in course from last week. The first four clans continue their tight dueling. Hydra has had a falling out a bit, but it isn't as dire as FCC's situation as only one clan relegates. Hydra has been preforming the better of the two poor performers, so that's your decider right there.

Anyway, I could keep chatting about the same stuff, but it be basically a rehashing of the current course. Sninja has had a really good performance, exceeding expectation to nail a ticket to A. And FCC is destined to gracefully step out and let the better clans of C take over the slot.

That's all.

Edited 5/20/2018 16:06:37

hmmm well XD

i think were winning.... if were flipping the list upside down :P

A few comments on this.

I think it's too early to say Sninja will promote. They are the favorites at this point, but I can easily still see both TJC and WG promoting as well for example, both have already more points scored than Sninja. Because barely any games are finished on Szeuropa (4/win), Final Earth (4/win) and Biomes (5/win), and with not all that many more finished on the other team games, it's not clear how strong each of the teams are on those templates. A few wins/losses here and there could mix up the top 3 completely. And there are of course 3 more 1v1 that have yet to start. I'd wait for a few more games to finish for Sninja before really declaring them a lock for promotion.

WG looks better than their score indicates, they are 6-0 in team games with 4-7 on 1v1. They have finished a lot more 1v1 though, so it is possible that they will have a higher win rate, and score rate, in their remaining games.
If you compare this with the teams in front of them: Sninja that are 4-0 in team and 6-1 on 1v1 and TJC that are 4-1 in team and 7-5 in 1v1. Therefore, I think WG is not all that far behind those 2.

Hydra meanwhile looks worse than their score indicates because they are currently 0-5 on the team games compared to 6-5 on 1v1. If you compare that with Stats, a similar team in scoring in front of them: they (we) are 1-3 on the team games compared to 6-2 on 1v1.

So I think it's better to talk about a top 3 that are in the mix for promotion at this moment, with Stats not completely to be counted out for promotion and Hydra a long shot. FCC is by all means the favorite for relegation, but it's not over. Compared to Hydra, FCC has to win 10% more of their remaining points to tie. That's not impossible, but from what I understand, not likely to happen.

Of course, this doesn't take into account remaining match-ups, but I can't check those because the CL website is down, again.

Edited 5/20/2018 11:03:13

Two questions for Aura:

* Maybe update the first post every now and then?

* Is the "only one clan relegates from B" information verifiable? (i.e. Where can we find this info, can someone confirm this, I seem to have overlooked this?)

Edited 5/20/2018 11:06:26

Good updates from Aura and MW. Personally I want to finish 3rd and think in the long run this season positions will slowly reflect that.

Is the "only one clan relegates from B" information verifiable? (i.e. Where can we find this info, can someone confirm this, I seem to have overlooked this?)
It was in CL10 stream and is written in CL10 Discord too. Since, there are 6 clans in Div.B now-CL panel decided to have 2 promotion spots and 1 relegation spot to make B to have7 clans next season.