High up in the North in the land called Svithjod, there stands a rock. It is a hundred miles high and a hundred miles wide. Once every thousand years a little bird comes to this rock to sharpen its beak. When the rock has thus been worn away, then a single Clan League will have gone by.

Edited 5/20/2018 16:07:51

So, the Horse race is just a graph showing the speed/progress of how many games have been played?
@Rikku, don't worry, we are joining CL next year. I'm so keen (although I'm probably not good enough to make the first team lineup ;)

Then git gud

I plan on it ;)

https://discord.gg/6zCP7vE You can join this Thele gend

I would but I don't currently use discord... Thanks for the offer.

Go M'Hunters! Huzzah and stuff. Yay CL!!!!

Go M'Hunters! Huzzah and stuff. Yay CL!!!!

Well, thank you kind sir.

I ran some simulations to predict the results.
Details of the calculation at https://www.warzone.com/Forum/301728-clan-league-10-division-b-official-thread?Offset=63 .
(std=standard deviation, PI=prediction interval)

             mean   (std)    95% PI
1. MASTER   149.10 (13.18) [123-174]
2. [Lynx]   142.53 (15.49) [111-172]
3. |GG|     125.85 (15.44) [ 96-156]
4. Outlaws  119.27 (15.38) [ 89-150]
5. ONE!     114.82 (14.36) [ 87-143]
6. MHunters  93.10 (12.91) [ 68-118]
7. VS        62.34 (12.28) [ 39-87 ]

                1      2      3      4      5      6      7
  MASTER   53.97% 30.38% 11.29%  3.43%  0.89%  0.04%  0.00%
  [Lynx]   33.70% 35.63% 18.01%  8.40%  3.69%  0.56%  0.01%
  |GG|      7.45% 17.38% 29.66% 24.90% 16.31%  4.18%  0.12%
  Outlaws   3.37% 10.15% 22.33% 28.99% 26.46%  8.34%  0.36%
  ONE!      1.50%  6.22% 17.30% 28.16% 34.25% 12.19%  0.38%
  MHunters  0.01%  0.24%  1.41%  6.07% 18.14% 70.16%  3.97%
  VS        0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.05%  0.26%  4.53% 95.16%

Main takeaways:
Everything is still open for the win with MASTER and [Lynx] the main candidates (obvious from the standings as well), and VS seems unlikely not to relegate at this point (within the limitations of the method).

Congrats at MHunters. In one of the 10000 simulations, you came out on top (and it wasn't even close):
1. MHunters 143; 2. ONE! 128; 3. [Lynx] 126; 4. MASTER 125; 5. |GG| 113; 6. Outlaws 97; 7. VS 75. Make it happen! (/trolling)

0.01% chance of winning...... i like them odds..lol

Since when does 1/10,000 round to 0.01... (-_-)

Disappointed in Math Wolf's division skills.. (joking of course :D)

Either that or Math Wolf's program rounds EVERY number up rather than down. That is not a good thing i think..

90

EDIT: oops, silly me..

Edited 5/31/2018 09:05:25

It rounds to 0.01 % and not 0.01.

Sounds like a line taken from Avengers movie.

Still better odds than Arsenal winning the EPL or Schalke winning Bundesliga :)

It rounds to 0.01 % and not 0.01.

:-)

Update #5 - May 30th, 2018

Fuck you Bonsai for being a no-show.
Fuck you AWESOMEGUY for making a bet with me.
And fuck you to all the losers who want an update but were too lazy to do so yourselves.
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1v1 French Brawl

Beren • apex(ONE!) defeats Nackickwind(VS)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15506231
In a game where Beren is slightly favored in terms of picks, he slowly edges out an income advantage against Nackickwind. Since Nackickwind can only defend, Beren slowly withers away Nackickwind's income turn by turn to take the win.

Beren • apex(ONE!) defeats Wini(Lynx)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15573127
A north vs south faceoff turns into a slowly gained advantage by Beren where he eliminates Wini from the south and stays alive in the north to win the game! Wini ultimately boots in the game but we all know it was all but over.

Nackickwind(VS) defeats Pardon99(MASTER Clan)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15375951
Nackickwind out picks and outplays Pardon99 to the point where he is up income 9 to 4. Well played you sneaky turtle.

Kezzo(Outlaws) defeats Rogue NK(M'Hunters)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15642514
East vs. West turns into who can gain the most income after each turn? Well, the answer was Kazoo as he was able to eliminate one of Rouge's spots and arrive at Rouge's doorstep to say 'goodnight!'

Rouge NK(M'Hunters) defeats Pardon99(MASTER Clan)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15439111
Tournament favorite (Pardon99) loses his 2nd game against Rouge as Rouge slowly gains an inedible income advantage that was too much for Pardon.

Pardon99(MASTER Clan) defeats Mikaela(GG)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15642512
First win grabbed up by Pardon99. The game was tight at first but Pardon99 slowly wins the game due to safe income and out delays. Shortly after a 5 income drop in 2 turns, Mikaela surrenders.

Pardon99(MASTER Clan) defeats Kezzo(Outlaws)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15573126
In a game where most people would not consider it an upset before the tournament started, Kezzo finally loses a game. This makes it so no one can go undefeated (6-0) in French Brawl this year. A bit disappointed in you Kezzo. :(

Wini(Lynx) defeats Pardon99(MASTER Clan)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15506229
Wini slowly gains an income advantage against Pardon99 by playing it slow and safe. After doubling Pardon's income by turn 5, Pardon was forced to surrender.

Wini(Lynx) defeats Mikela(GG)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15710501
Mikela goes (0-5) as Wini racks up another win. Sad to say this is not the tournament for GG as Mikela seems to have not shown up against A-level competition. Old Platinum must be disappointed as he believes this was the biggest upset of the century. Mikela has one more game left to play against Nackickwind(VS). Let us all hope Mikela can show up and win that game.

Standings ~ Outlaws: (4-1) / One: (3-1) / M-Hunters: (2-1) / Lynx: (2-2) / Masters: (2-3) / VS: (1-1) / GG: (0-5)

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1v1 Guiroma

Krzysztof(Outlaws) defeats Emu Pub(M-Hunters)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15458776
A 15 turn game as the Polish beats the American. Although an equal income for most of the game, Krzystof edges out an advantage by expansion and leaves Emu Pub in the dust.

Quicksilver(Lynx) defeats Ipsimus(One)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15526308
A game where Nox doesn't eliminate Quickie early leads to Nox being behind and slowly outmatched as the east beats up on the west and Quicksilver gets a 16 income advantage.

Inside(VS) defeats Krzysztof(Outlaws)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15594916
What's better than an 1 income advantage? A 3 income advantage of course! INSIDE shows how it is done by gaining the income advantage and not getting his bonuses broken. WP!

master of desaster(Masters) defeats Krzystof(Outlaws)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15526307
Legend says if you get eliminated you fall behind and lose the game. Well, that was true in this one. Mod eliminates one of Krzystof's territories and had a free win from there.

Emu Pub(M-Hunters) defeats Ipsimus(One)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15594915
"Guiroma is all about Greece, whoever has it always wins." Well, that was true here! Emu Pub has Greece and he won. Whoever came up with that quote is a genius!

Ipsimus(One) defeats INSIDE(VS)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15662516
Yea this game was over from turn 1. Not much to say. I don't know why INSIDE bothered to continue it. I would have surrendered so darn fast!

Standings~ Lynx: (2-0) / GG: (2-0) / Masters: (2-1) / M-Hunters: (2-2) / Outlaws: (1-2) / One: (1-3) / VS: (1-3)

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1v1 Elitist Africa

Carlos12.0(Outlaws) defeats Muli(One)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15409881
In a long 12-turn game the final income turned out to be 39 for Carlos and 21 for Muli. You tell me who the winner is. :P

Juan(Lynx) defeats master of desaster(Masters)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15615219
Another seemingly lengthly Elitist Africa game where the winner was the person who had the most income. A bit of an upset for some people but as Kevin Garnett might say, "ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE."

fireice82(GG) defeats Private Pabse (VS)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15478676
Fireice slowly gains an advantage in income before it was over. Fireice stays undefeated while VS still does not have a win. What a lopsided event.

Juan(lynx) defeats Private Pabse (VS)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15546763
Juan edges out an advantage turn 1 which seemed over from there. The final score was 21-7 in favor of Juan. GG well played.

Muli(One) defeats Private Pabse (VS)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15615221
A game boot on picks ... What a shame. VS falls to 0-4 in the Elitist Africa Tournament and are far behind. They need to step it up or else they will go scoreless.

Standings ~ Lynx: (3-0) / GG: (2-0) / Masters: (2-1) / Outlaws: (1-1) / One: (1-2) / M-Hunters: (1-2) / VS: (0-4)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1v1 Battle Islands

This tournament has yet to start.

Standings ~ Masters: (0-0) / One: (0-0) / Outlaws: (0-0) / Lynx: (0-0) / GG: (0-0) / VS: (0-0) / M-Hunters: (0-0)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1v1 Strategic Greece

This tournament has yet to start.

Standings ~ Masters: (0-0) / One: (0-0) / Outlaws: (0-0) / Lynx: (0-0) / GG: (0-0) / VS: (0-0) / M-Hunters: (0-0)

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1v1 Pangea Ultima

This tournament has yet to start.

Standings ~ Masters: (0-0) / One: (0-0) / Outlaws: (0-0) / Lynx: (0-0) / GG: (0-0) / VS: (0-0) / M-Hunters: (0-0)

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2v2 Final Earth

Rento + alexclusive(Lynx) defeats rocky1 + vicnus(VS)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15389365
Hmm, let us sum this up quickly since it is a 20-turn game. VS starts out strong with an early lead but chokes it away against Lynx. They had multiple opportunities but failed to capitalize and slowly Lynx was able to win the game. An unfortunate event for VS as they need all the points they can get. Well played by Rento and Alexclusive.

Standings ~ Masters: (1-0) / Lynx: (1-0) / One: (0-0) / Outlaws: (0-0) / M-Hunters: (0-0) / GG: (0-1) / VS: (0-1)

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2v2 Szeurope

hobo + Digital(M-Hunters) defeats Mike GG + JV(GG)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15540377
JV starts out strong and goes all the way up to 16 income but then gets ganged by both hobo and digital whose safe income leads them to victory. Mike had 4 income the whole way through and sadly could not do much.

Juan + 90 \(oo)/(Lynx) defeats Platinum + Odin(Outlaws)
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=15375966
A game where Plat boots. Nothing new I guess. Jokes aside, Juan and 90 plays it safe and outplays Platinum and Odin with logic and smart moves. This was a good game to watch.

Standings ~ Masters: (1-0) / Lynx: (1-0) / M-Hunters: (1-1) / One: (0-0) / VS: (0-0) / Outlaws: (0-1) / GG: (0-1)

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2v2 Volcano Islands

No games finished this week.

Standings ~ Masters: (1-0) / One: (1-0) / M-Hunters: (1-0) / GG: (0-0) / VS: (0-1) / Outlaws: (0-1) / GG: (0-1)

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Edited 6/1/2018 00:58:21

3v3 Biomes

Timinator + Master Moto + Master Jaesar(Masters) defeats vicnus + johnmd20 + jef(VS)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15389367
Someone got eliminated and I got 23 income! Damn I am so good :)

Malakkan + Muli + Adreso(One) defeats vicnus + johnmd20 + jef(VS)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15560266
VS loses their 2nd game in a row to One. They are slowly falling behind in Biomes and will need to pick up the pace and try to not finish last. The turn seemed lost after turn 1 and One slowly gained advantages here and there until they were too big to stop.

Standings ~ Masters: (1-0) / One: (1-0) / GG: (1-0) / Outlaws: (0-0) / Lynx: (0-0) / M-Hunters: (0-1) / VS: (0-2)

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3v3 Europe

Mike GG + MisterT + Po1onius(GG) defeats Beren - apex + Suschel + Muli(One)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15375971
Since this game was 12 turns which is years in a Eu game I won't go in depth but GG eliminated One from the center and slowly gained an advantage that was too big to stop. GG beats Beren & Co to grab their first win in Eu.

Master of the Dead + Master Jz + Master Moto(Masters) defeats INSIDE + DarrenDieHard + tobe(VS)
https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15540379
In what looked like a win for VS off of picks, Masters slowly gained advantages from predicting what VS would do. After multiple times where VS failed to break bonuses, Masters gained the advantage to win the game.

Standings ~ Masters: (2-0) / GG: (1-0) / Outlaws: (0-0) / Lynx: (0-0) / One: (0-1) / VS: (0-1) / M-Hunters: (0-1)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Current Standings:


(1) Masters
Masters has an average week as they win 5 games and lose 4 games. They hold first place by a slight 0.6% PC against Lynx. They have the highest TP of any clan, by 16 points to the next highest (lynx) while holding the 2nd highest MP to Lynx. Masters need to keep it up if they want to maintain first as Lynx and everyone else is right behind them.

(2) Lynx
Lynx has a great week as they go 7-1. They have the best Win rate of any clan right now at 75% and look in form to contend for first place. They have the highest max point ceiling of any clan in division A but will need to put points on the board to maintain 2nd and try to catch up to Masters in total points.

(3) One
One goes 5-4 which is a solid week in A. They are still in the middle of the pack and will need to keep winning to try and pull away from all the other pests fighting to avoid the relegation spots.

(4) GG
GG goes 2-3 and is sitting in 4th place. They have a worst WR% than Outlaws but have a slightly higher PC % and TP. GG needs to keep winning games to try and separate themselves from Outlaws and M-Hunters and solidify a spot in A.

(5) Outlaws
Outlaws go 3-5 this week. After getting to a hot start from their superstar player Kezzo they end up with a TW-TL of 6-6. Outlaws are tied with Lynx for the most games remaining and will need to keep up the pace of finishing games as they are far behind in TP and PC%.

(6) M-Hunters
M-Hunters goes 4-2 and slightly catches up with the competition of GG and Outlaws. They are still behind both Outlaws and GG but if they continue winning games, they will not have to worry about sitting in the last relegation spot.

(7) VS
VS continues their struggles and goes 2-9. Although they did rack up 2 wins they are behind the competition and will need to step it up to have a chance to stay in A for the following season. It has been tough for VS losing so many games but they should keep their morales up as anything is possible! :)

Edited 6/1/2018 00:31:40

"Juan + 90 \(oo)/(M-Hunters) defeats Platinum + Odin"

did 90 and juan join mhunters?? awsome, welcome back 90, knew u couldnt stay away long.


lol, not trying to break ur ball moto. i for one appreciate the work you put into these updates
and i agree with you...............fuck them all

fixed ! sorry for the mistake :)

thx hubby, your post was almost 1/4 as good as mine usually were <3