Scenarios:

1. Krazy Chew wins at least one more game, and wins the season. 93% chance.
2. zibik wins his remaining games. Crazy Chew loses 1-2 games. zibik wins. 5% chance.
3. abr wins his remaining games and wins the season. 1% chance.
4. Crazy Chew and zibik lose enough for TWM to win the season. 1% chance.

Is it too early to congratulate Crazy Chew?

Edited 3/4/2014 05:48:01

*Knock on wood* definitely too early, we've seen weird things happen before when seasons end, what with all the auto-finished games. Definitely rooting for Krzychu though!

not really - apparently it's most likely 93% for zibik, but we will see.
More interesting is, that exploiting 1v1 ladder is not enough, we have guy trying to exploit seasonal ladder (Voodoo). He has enabled vacation after playing just one turn in few games, so he will win all of them as he didn't lost any troop(no card's earned). So bad gnuffone didn't do it earlier, maybe he could add seasonal ladder to his achievement's list too.

Similar things have been done before:
http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5395487

What about timon finishing first?

no idea, i've made few assumption that have been already proven wrong (voodoo beating all, zibik beating timon). Now it's hard to say - if i lose to abr(seems likely) it will be close call between me, twm and timon depending on their games.