This was ONE! fabulously written prediction *slow clap*.

:]

Is it tomorrow yet?

no, today is today. sorry.

We will smurf soon
ONE! wrath will be swift
All these peasants thinking we aren't good
LMFAO

One will probably be first followed by lynx and outlaws rest dont matter

Edited 2/18/2019 17:46:47

The results of the survey are finally here!

Division A - Predictions by rank

                  1     2     3     4     5     6     7   mean    sd
Lynx          45.3% 34.4%  6.2%  1.6%  3.1%  6.2%  3.1%   2.14  1.63
ONE           35.9% 45.3% 12.5%  1.6%  3.1%  1.6%  0.0%   1.95  1.05
Outlaws        4.7% 14.1% 31.2% 25.0% 14.1%  9.4%  1.6%   3.64  1.36
SNinja         3.1%  1.6% 17.2% 29.7% 26.6% 14.1%  7.8%   4.48  1.36
WG             3.1%  1.6% 15.6% 20.3% 25.0% 28.1%  6.2%   4.72  1.40
MHunters       6.2%  1.6% 14.1% 15.6% 23.4% 23.4% 15.6%   4.81  1.65
Statisticians  1.6%  1.6%  3.1%  6.2%  4.7% 17.2% 65.6%   6.25  1.36

Division A - Head to Head higher ranked %

              Lynx ONE! Outlw SNinj   WG MHunt Stats
Lynx             /   53    83    84   88    88    91
ONE             47    /    84    94   94    89    97
Outlaws         17   16     /    66   75    72    91
SNinja          16    6    34     /   53    56    86
WG              12    6    25    47    /    53    84
MHunters        12   11    28    44    47    /    77
Statisticians    9    3     9    14   16    23     /

For the win, it's between Lynx and ONE! according to our respondents it seems. I put Lynx first in the output because they win the head to head with ONE! (second table), being predicted higher by 53% of respondents. Additionally, they also have considerably more 1st place predictions. However, some Platinum fans seemingly put Lynx quite low, with 6 respondents (almost 10%) predicting relegation versus only 1 respondent predicting relegation for ONE! resulting in ONE having a better prediction on average.
At the other end of the spectrum, Statisticians are the overwhelming favourites! However, between 3rd and 6th, which includes the last podium spot and the second relegation spot, it's pretty close. Outlaws is being predicted slightly better than SNinja, WG and M'Hunters. None of these clans have more than 40% chance to relegate according to the respondents (but all except Outlaws at least 30%), while neither has more than 50% to finish in the top 3 either, with Outlaws leading the bunch with exactly 50% and all others between 20% and 25%.
Overall, M'Hunters and Lynx are predicted more extreme, while the predictions for ONE! are most robust.



Division B - Predictions by rank

               1     2     3     4     5     6     7   mean    sd
GG         54.7% 18.8% 12.5%  7.8%  3.1%  0.0%  3.1%   1.98  1.44
101st      17.2% 21.9% 23.4% 20.3%  9.4%  6.2%  1.6%   3.08  1.53
Apprentice 12.5% 26.6% 28.1% 20.3% 10.9%  1.6%  0.0%   2.95  1.25
VS          7.8% 21.9% 14.1% 25.0% 17.2%  9.4%  4.7%   3.69  1.62
FCC         4.7%  6.2%  7.8%  9.4% 29.7% 23.4% 18.8%   4.98  1.66
NWO         0.0%  3.1%  6.2%  6.2% 17.2% 42.2% 25.0%   5.64  1.28
CORP        3.1%  1.6%  7.8% 10.9% 12.5% 17.2% 46.9%   5.67  1.64

Division B - Head to Head higher ranked %

            GG 101st Appr  VS FCC NWO CORP
GG           /    73   70  81  86  97   94
101st       27     /   52  62  78  89   84
Apprentice  30    48    /  62  86  91   88
VS          19    38   38   /  78  80   80
FCC         14    22   14  22   /  62   67
NWO          3    11    9  20  38   /   55
CORP         6    16   12  20  33  45    /

GG is predicted to promote according to our respondents (70% agree), with a more than 50% chance to finish first and a head to head advantage of at least 70% against every other clan in B. It's going to be a tough fight the for the second promotion spot, with 101st and Apprentice both being predicted in the top 2 by 39% of respondents and a minor advantage for 101st in 1st place finishes and head to head (52%). Apprentice has to lower average predicted result though by virtue of 101st being projected towards the back of the pack more often.
While VS is an obvious 4th on average, actually predictions are all over the place with almost 30% chance of promotion and 14% chance of relegation. FCC, NWO and CORP mainly divide the last 3 spots among each other with FCC predicted a little more than 40% on a relegation spot, while NWO and CORP around 60%. There is a clear difference in how their predictions are spread out, with NWO a little more constant in the last 3 places, while CORP and FCC have more top 3 predictions as well.



Division Q1 - Predictions by rank

                    1     2     3     4     5     6     7   mean    sd
VIW             35.9% 29.7% 17.2% 10.9%  4.7%  1.6%  0.0%   2.23  1.27
Harmony         34.4% 17.2% 15.6% 12.5%  9.4%  4.7%  6.2%   2.84  1.87
BIA             10.9% 17.2% 29.7% 15.6% 15.6%  6.2%  4.7%   3.45  1.59
ILLUMINATI       9.4% 15.6% 14.1% 23.4% 15.6% 12.5%  9.4%   3.95  1.78
Avengers         3.1% 15.6% 14.1% 31.2% 23.4%  9.4%  3.1%   3.97  1.40
Celtica          1.6%  3.1%  6.2%  4.7% 10.9% 46.9% 26.6%   5.67  1.39
Varangian Guard  4.7%  1.6%  3.1%  1.6% 20.3% 18.8% 50.0%   5.88  1.58

Division Q1 - Head to Head higher ranked %

                VIW Harmo BIA ILLUM Aveng Celti VarGu
VIW               /    53  78    81    84    91    89
Harmony          47     /  59    64    70    89    86
BIA              22    41   /    61    58    86    88
ILLUMINATI       19    36  39     /    55    77    80
Avengers         16    30  42    45     /    83    88
Celtica           9    11  14    23    17     /    58
Varangian Guard  11    14  12    20    12    42     /

There's a bit more variation in the prediction for this qualifier compared to A and B, but this makes sense since most people don't know all clans. The overall trends are quite clear though: VIW and Harmony are the clear frontrunners to fight it out in C, BIA is the best of the rest and also is predicted in the top 3 by more than 50% of respondents, inching out ILLUMINATI and Avengers. Meanwhile Celtica and Varangian Guard do not receive much love and can be happy that there is no relegation in the qualifiers.




Division Q2 - Predictions by rank

                   1     2     3     4     5     6     7   mean    sd
Blitz          84.4%  6.2%  3.1%  1.6%  3.1%  1.6%  0.0%   1.38  1.05
Hawks           1.6% 53.1% 20.3% 18.8%  1.6%  1.6%  3.1%   2.83  1.22
Wizards         9.4% 20.3% 43.8% 15.6%  4.7%  3.1%  3.1%   3.08  1.31
Discovery       1.6% 12.5% 17.2% 39.1% 23.4%  6.2%  0.0%   3.89  1.14
LEA             0.0%  6.2%  7.8% 17.2% 45.3% 20.3%  3.1%   4.75  1.15
USSR            1.6%  0.0%  4.7%  4.7% 12.5% 45.3% 31.2%   5.88  1.20
Nuke Diplomacy  1.6%  1.6%  3.1%  3.1%  9.4% 21.9% 59.4%   6.20  1.31

Division Q2 - Head to Head higher ranked %

               Blitz Hawks Wizas Disco LEA USSR NukeD
Blitz              /    92    89    95  95   95    95
Hawks              8     /    61    72  88   94    95
Wizards           11    39     /    77  83   91    92
Discovery          5    28    23     /  73   91    91
LEA                5    12    17    27   /   80    84
USSR               5     6     9     9  20    /    62
Nuke Diplomacy     5     5     8     9  16   38     /

Strangely enough, Q2 has much more robust predictions compared to Q1, and even compared to A and B. There is a clear order with Blitz on top, Hawks second and Wizards 3rd as the favourites to advance to C. Discovery at number 4 is only predicted to reach C by about 30% of respondents, LEA doesn't reach 15%, while USSR and Nuke Diplomacy are the clans that are predicted to relegate if such thing existed in the qualifiers.



Additional polling nuggets will follow in the post below!

Other polling nuggets

• Names: With 29 empty, 2 anonymous and a few fake ones, a much higher percentage was anonymous this time compared to CL9. Maybe the many facebook and other scandals did teach people a thing or two about not giving away too much information? Also, as usual there were some people pretending to be me, none of which were actually me.
  
• Clans: All division A clans had at least one member filling it in, but none more than 3 non-anonymous. From B, NWO & VS had no one filling in the survey while declaring the clan. From Div Q1 and Q2: 6 clans had members filling in the survey and declaring the clan (3 from each qualifier). There were members from a few clans that do not join Clan League this season.
  
• Gender: Seriously dudes? Over 60 declared that they were male with 26% prefering not to say or empty. However, despite the presence of the genders "Fizzer", "Ghost", "None of the above", "Spambot", "Thingymawut" and "Warlight player", there were no women filling in the survey...
  
• Age: the majority of respondents is in their twenties or early thirties. I'm not going to bother to list all the other answers including people who recently turned 4 and aliens with ages of multiple 9's in a row (multiple).
  
• Deepest thoughts:
  Division A: Outlaws and Lynx relegate. M'Hunters or WG win. Nevertheless, Lynx are the clear favourites despite some inevitable boots and Outlaws will make a serious run at the title despite their dept being exposed and M'Hunters are still ***** [redacted]. Since ONE! will under-perform and finish 3rd, Sninja can win CL11. If Stats will be 7th, but if they can get Nauz to play properly they can do great. [Note: Nauz already booted his first 2 games.] People expressed believe in Smoove, max and Waddles.
  Division B: GG wins Division B, which according to some looks better than A although VS has gone to crap with retirements, 101st is underwhelming and NWO looks good on paper but doesn't perform in CL.
  Qualifiers: Blitz will boot half their games, cheat in more than half and win C. Meanwhile, Farah is a loser, and he will stop scorekeeping and and start scorecreeping if he gets sent one more piece of underwear by MoD. In other news, Harmony has a disappointing line-up and Wizards vs. Discovery for the third spot in C should be interesting.
  Random thoughts:
  - It's unclear whether these predictions were supposed to be made on the results before or after the ethics panel gets involved. Afterwards, ONE and Lynx will be relegating because both clans are full of dirty cheaters.
  - Xenophon has 2 accounts in division A and B clans ready to boot.
  - Will platinum retire if Outlaws relegates? FIND OUT NEXT TIME ON DRAGON-BALL WZ!!!
  - One person mourns Icelandic Turtles while another thinks it's sad that Coalition Of Role Playing Friends didn't field a lineup.
  - At least one person is a zombie without thoughts.
  - Several people don't know how to spell "Statisticians" correctly.
  - And finally, one player is hopping to not disappoint. We believe in you brave Warzone bunny!
  

Edited 2/19/2019 22:51:16

Nice

Edited 2/19/2019 23:40:24

Not disappointed <3

Surprised not more people predict Apprentice to come first in B.

on the other hand there's only one person who thinks we'll relegate haha that's something at least :p

and thanks for doing this MW (:

Edited 2/20/2019 20:25:50

Only 10% of the community have us relegating? After saying how Bohun literally can't speak English.. That I'm leading the EU team.. and I have Bonsai on 3 slots. Wow...

Bohun is top 15 1v1 ladder right now, You could pull off a couple EU wins, and Bonsai looks fairly active.

I predicted Outlaws and Lynx to relegate if that makes you feel any better Plat

I predicted Outlaws and Lynx to relegate if that makes you feel any better Plat

You did not, you picked Stats and Lynx to relegate.
Only 1 person predicted both Lynx and Outlaws to relegate and I am certain that was not you.

Called out.

It was definitely me

Xeno you get snitched all the time, what's going wrong?

Someone is impersonating me