http://WarLight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?GameID=2930198

If you watch this, i got 1st move only one time in 12 turns, is that normal? :/

And the only turn i got 1st move was when i used OPC :/ could someone enlight me if that is possible, and if it's possible, in which %?

Ignoring the time you used OP, the chances are 0.5^11. What happened to you happens about once every 2000 games.

congrats red , you r lucky!
:) "1 out of 2000 games"

And since your enemy used his order priority card too, chances are actually 0.5^10, or 1 out of 1024.

And since it also would have been notable if it had been YOU getting priority every turn, the chances of someone (unspecified) getting that streak is really 0.5^9, 1 in 512.
That's still really unlucky though...

What about 10 times in a row? is that "improving" my luck? Damn, i always said that i'm the most unlucky player on Warlight..

really interesting... didn't see that.
I think this ρωη|tгσςкєгz is a really lucky man :D

it's a confirmation bias: people only take note of times they have been wronged by luck, and never when the luck is in their favour. when you've played 2500 games you can be sure that all your bad and good luck has evened out.

you always see players saying how unlucky they are and pointing out where luck was against them, but never doing the same when it's their opponents who have suffered bad luck.

Besides, if you look at graphs and check the cumulative luck statistic you'll see that you had in fact more luck then your opponent. The game was lost on picks IMO, not with luck.

Not to mention that nobody is going to post a thread "I went first in turn 2, 3, 5 and 7, while my opponent went first in the other 6 turns", even though that's exactly as unlikely.

Human intuition positively sucks at estimating probabilities and statistics. Just ask any RPG-gamer: "a fifty-fifty chance never happens, a one-in-a-million is a sure thing!"... That's not just a joke, it really feels that way. Partly because of confirmation bias and partly because human brains are no good at all with big numbers:

• Confirmation bias -- you don't remember all those one-in-a-millions which failed (because you already knew they'd fail, but the one which you actually made... you're still talking about it years later.
• Big numbers -- without a calculator and in at most ten seconds, answer the following question. How long is a million seconds: two days, two weeks, two months or two years?

There's a half documentary, half infotainment (but they did get the documentary part completely right!) by Derren Brown, called The System. It nicely demonstrates "no matter how small the chance, if you try often enough, sooner or later it will happen". If you'd like, you can watch it online at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4 (for the people who are strictly anti-gambling: (1) it's just an example, (2) believe me, after having watched it entirely, you'll agree that this in no way promotes gambling... if anything, it is discouraged).

Artham, the luck counter ignores first-turn or similar aspects of luck as we see it. It is solely a counter of the armies (or percentage thereof) gained or lost by the 'diceroll'

Having bad dice luck but getting lucky in first-turns can be more advantageous than what Red saw

sorry but why did he pick europe to start with?

Because nobody would expect him to pick it. Take your enemy by surprise.:)

RvW, what you say at the beginning of your post is a horribly inaccurate use of probability... You don't seem to have the slightest grasp of what probability is, please check your facts before you post...

I don't see how this is inaccurate (but please correct me if I am wrong):

"Not to mention that nobody is going to post a thread "I went first in turn 2, 3, 5 and 7, while my opponent went first in the other 6 turns", even though that's exactly as unlikely. "

If you were to calculate the chance of going first in exactly turns 2, 3, 5, and 7 and the opponent goes first in turns 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 it is exactly the same probability of going first every turn. He's not saying the same probability of going first 50% of the time, he is saying going first in exactly that pattern. It should be P(A AND B AND C AND D AND ... 12th number) for both scenarios.

It's like people scoff at the notion that is possible to win the lottery by picking numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 even though it is just as likely to win as any other combination of numbers.

Dr Typesomehitng is correct. The odds of getting any one particular string are identical. It is when order is immaterial that the odds start changing. The difference between combination and permutation.

Ah yes, those were the words I was looking for. Thanks!

Any permutation is equally as likely (because going first each round is a binary event each time) but combinations vary quite a bit, with going first 50% the most likely and going first or last every time the least likely. There are many permutations that make up going first half the time while only one that leads to going last every time. So while Red clearly had an unlikely event, it is equally as unlikely as any other permutation, such as going first only in the exact rounds stated by RvW.

@szeweningen:
I meant (like Dr. TypoSomething says), but rewritten in standard notation, that P(H,T,T,H,T,H,T,H,H,H) = 0.5^10 = P(H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H). Is it possible you simply misunderstood my post? Or would you like me to make a stricter distinction between the terms "probability" and "statistics"; I admit I'm sometimes a little lax in that respect?

I completely agree with RvW. The only reason you perceive it as unlucky is because it is notable.