Out of these I'd go with A

@Buns - in theory I think you can which is why Farah (or is it AI?) says this about A-set :

The 6th pick is just a safe bonus in 2 turns, if you look closely you may realize that it feels like an advantage for us here in any possible pick combo outcome (1/2/6, 1/3/6 and 2/3/6)

So it was a comment on that. In reality, I agree - no way you will get 136. But even in theory, only 126 looks like advantageous position out of these three mentioned outcomes.

And I also agree that 236C > 236A.

It's gonna be easy for rufus knowing his opponent exact picks xD most people say option A...

Rufus is not checking these threads, so no worries about that.

Yeah, 1+3+6 is possible. However 1+3+6 generally looks like a bizarre outcome to me. I generally think of the outcomes as the following:

- 1/2/6 --> You checked with your picks 3+4+5 your opponents picks and now slam him with your number 6.

- 2/3/6 --> You picked the board quite similarly than your opponent.

- 1/3/6 --> Technically just like 2/3/6 just that your opponent picked your pick number 2 as hist first pick. However practically you seem to have evaluated the board completely different than your opponent and it's just a big coincidence that you got to pick 6. But perhaps then again 1/3/6 is also just like 1+2+6 if you form a combo with your 1+3 instead of the more classic 1+2.

Under ABBAAB, 1/3/6 is possible for B if (and only if) A's 1st pick is B's 2nd pick and A picks B's 2/4/5 in A's first 3 successful picks. I don't think you need a completely different evaluation of the board; you can arrive at 1/3/6 where A & B disagree on just 1 vs. 2. That could be a pretty huge disagreement or possibly just tricky play when 1&2 are the same combo (could be a mutual combo where both warlords are borders).

e.g., where A1...A6 = A's picks, and likewise for B1...B6:

A1 is B2
A2 is B1
A3 is B3
A4 is B4
A5 is B5
A6 is B6

1. A gets A1 (B can't get B2)
2. B gets B1 because B2 is taken (A can't get A2)
3. B gets B3 (A can't get A3)
4. A gets A4 because A2, A3 are taken (B can't get B4)
5. A gets A5 (B can't get B5)
6. B gets B6 because B4, B5 are taken

(note that 1/3/6 just implies that you're B, that B2 = A1, that B4 is in {A2, A3, A4}, and that B5 is in {A3, A4, A5}; the above is just one scenario where the pick similarity is maximized).

Edited 7/7/2020 00:36:02

+1 MoD/Timi

Option A is the best, even if some of the second pick options don't look so good.

The picks have been made!
Out of the four options, The World overwhelmingly took option A as the best one. We ended up getting second pick; we have Western Russia, South America and Scandinavia. We know for sure that Rufus is in Central America and not in Central Russia.

The board looks as follows:



Expect a thread on the first movesets for this turn tomorrow.

Good luck and have fun.

Lol

things

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So, as a situation analysis:

- I like it very much not seeing Rufus in Europe / Russia. IMO the real mistake of the A picks weren't South America but the picks there. However, we aren't getting punished by Rufus siting in Scandinavian Peninsula.

- Of course Central America > South America however IMO playing against South America from Central America isn't that easy and Rufus has a lot of pressure guessing our South America play correct. The fog is our friend there.

So where is Rufus?
- Central America (obviously)
- East Africa: I believe so since it's the best unknown viable bonus.
- This leaves open West Africa or East China. IMO East China is a poor bonus, I don't believe he is there. West Africa + East Africa was my own choice however I didn't want to combine this with Central America but I guess Rufus saw that differently.


It kinda feels like that Rufus messed his picks up to some extent. Us picking West Russia as number 2 might have surprised him so he lost his spot there.

I bet that,

Rufus is in CA, East Africa (as Norman said), and then Caucasus (as a counter to that area).

Edited 7/8/2020 20:47:45

I always felt that I could relate to Rufus' way to pick and Caucasus is something which doesn't feel right to me. IMO Rufus is also asking himself mainly "How could those picks lose me the game?" instead of "How could those picks crush my opponent?".

Caucasus would have to be a blind counter in order to Rufus not accidentally getting 2 spots in Russia. If the opponent manages to defend West Russia, Rufus risks a swift defeat. Well, maybe I'm wrong about Caucasus however it's certainly not a pick I would build a strategy around.

I wouldn't be surprised if Rufus is in Caucasus. He has made crush-my-opponent picks against me before (https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=23086595, albeit this is a 2/3/6). Plus Caucasus doesn't have to be a gamble on a blind counter: if Rufus's 1/2/3/4 were CA/SA/WR/Cauc, then he'd get or block the CA/SA combo and get or block the WR/Cauc combo, with the Cauc counter being possibly pretty strong against both WR/CR and WR/Scan. The CA/WR/Cauc start could be fatal with an opponent in CR, though, so maybe Rufus's picks looked like: CA/SA/EAf/WR/Cauc/???- that way, the Cauc counter isn't too risky for Rufus to go for, because it wouldn't be blind and it wouldn't come at the cost of a safe bonus in EAf.

If Rufus has Cauc, then we might already be at a pretty steep disadvantage while Rufus has fairly secure income in at least 1 place on the map (my bet is E. Africa).

Edited 7/8/2020 22:20:51

Well... I'd say he is in EA and EC. Clustering his first 3 or 4 picks CA WA EA (SA) makes no sense. CAU without picking CR also doesn't make sense. ME,however is a good slow counter to SCA+WR and that's a possibility. EC is much safer pick though.

@Norman: good point about how Rufus tends to think about picks.

I think you are right that EC is a weak way to control Asia, so lets rule that out.

East Russia is possible, as is Middle East (as Cloud points out). Also, East Russia is a bit big to get in a brawly fight, and Middle East offers a counter to East Africa ...

So, my new opinion is that he has CA, East Africa, and Middle East, where Middle East was designed as either a counter to East Africa or as a way to surprisingly smash up later to attack West Russia/Scandinavia.

Edited 7/8/2020 22:37:27

EC also has a slow counter path to the Scan/CR/WR/CAU cluster thanks to ER's 3:1 positional advantage.

But I don't think Rufus would've let y'all get the Scan/CR/WR/CAU cluster without a counter ready to strike (EDIT: ME would also work here).

Going for CAU would be non-intuitive but imo makes sense as a way to control the map; WR/CR would trigger an immediate brawl which puts Rufus at a disadvantage if Rufus's only safe bonus is a 5:4 while we have 4:3 Scandinvia, but delaying that brawl by 1-2 turns would allow Rufus to trigger it with an income advantage + a distraction in CA/SA. At least, I wouldn't count on Rufus not being in CAU or ME.

Edited 7/8/2020 22:33:22

The more I think about it and try to construct possible pick sets. The more I think Middle East is one of Rufus' picks. Although blind CAU is also possible.

Edited 7/8/2020 23:57:52