Hmm so something meaty for the warlight community to get their teeth into.

The Asian area is full of arguements and tension right now be it from the above territorial disputes or from other matters such as the Chinese transition or the continued tension over such things as the two Koreas or the Taiwanese question.

Japan is a major historical issue with most asian countries due to it's early rise resulting in colonialism or conquest of many other asian countries.

Other Asian states now find them selves pressured into becoming pro-Chinese or Pro-American or trying to walk the tightrope that pleases both super-powers.

How do you see the Asian area unfolding? What are the futures for the players? Who will 'win' and who will 'lose'? How should they play their respective hands? Who is 'right' and who is 'wrong'? Stay away if you are wary of these types of discussion - if not let's see what people think. :)

You wont get answers by "people". You will have this thread spammed by teenagers who believe that they can understand and oversee world politics.

Let them, it'll be almost as fun .. well for a little while :)

You're quite familiar with Asia Hand - care to muse with me?

From someone in China's perspective, the biggest winners in Asia are the two Asian Juggernauts:

China and India.

China will surpass the USA in GDP by 2030, becoming the most powerful country in the world, mainly due to its massive labour force and lack of democracy. China's political system (1 party state) will benefit them in terms of long term planning, which will ultimately make them a stronger power than the US. They will also reap the benefits of Chinese investments in Africa, which will help secure a longer term future after worker condition reforms within China in order to keep the stability of the political party. Internet censorship will become more extreme as US will escalate the war of words with China when China starts to leave it in the dust.

India will experience a meteoric rise in economic growth. The main problem will be whether the government is able to change that growth into success. India lacks behind china in infrastructure, most of which was put in by the Victorians, so most likely that is where a lot of money will be poured. key to their success will be the entrepreneurs generated by the education system, which china is not as good at. Behind China but will do well.

Japan is the 3rd major power within the asian sphere (I would say) and despite having the highest GDP of the three, will gradually fall back into 3rd place due to lack of manpower and quite an old society. They will continue to make great anime and manga and will get out of the LN adaptation phase and games, manga and doujinshi will become more popular for adaptation into anime/manga. The japanese automoble industry will gradually be outgrown by neighbouring Korea, but their main growth will be in high end technology, especially stuff like robotics, which the japanese are practically obsessed with. Japan's story parallels much of the 1st world nations.

Indonesia, philipines will be cheaper labour areas, lots of migration into China as per the last 10 years. Will get hit by more natural disasters due to global warming. Most of south east asia, Indochina is same story but minus the natural disasters.

South korea will continue to dominate starcraft III and will not reconcile with its northern cousin. The story is quite similar to japan, but with slightly more growth. North Korea will continue to sponge off south korea and the US and will keep under Kim.

In the middle east, the arab countries will gradually dominate israel with their oil to a point where israel becomes a state as isolated from its neighbours as north korea. Saudi Arabia will develop nuclear weapons. Should it come to war in this area, the US will abandon israel. This is precisely the reason why there will be peace.

THe stans will gradually recover from being ex-soviet bloc.

In 50 years, growth will go towards africa.

my uneducated predictions

Kusanagi you forgot to add that south korea's music industry will be the biggest in asia.

Kunusagi, very good points. I do have a couple of issues with your remarks, however.

First of all, while China and India are the rising powers in Asia, I think India will be (and already is) be hampered in their development due to their inadequate infrastructure. There are already countrywide power outages, and many people don't have access to running water. These are problems India desperately needs to solve before they can truly be considered developed.

Secondly, I was wondering about your comment regarding Indonesia and the Philippines continuing as cheap labor sources. While I understand this to be true in places such as Singapore and Hong Kong, you specifically mentioned China as a market for cheap outside labor. I think this is false, at least for the next 25 years.

Yes, this may be the case. It is something india will have to work on.

This is true, but there are big chinese cities such as shanghai and beijing that import a huge amount of foreign workers. Of course they can use people from central China, but the phillipinos and indonesians are slightly cheaper and a lot of central chinese dont move due to big factories (such as ones managed by foxconn) in the region

Ummm why does no one think japan is a major power? They currently are the dominant country when it comes from electronics and cars,a lot of cities are very big there, especialy tokyo (biggest ciy in the world). They also have a failry big population, and their pop culture is very great, even up to the point that major countries lik ethe U.S. read mangas and watch animes. Since the 1960's, the were one of the advanced countries, and they seem to still be going strong. I think this is the order of the most powerful contries as of now.

1. Japan
2. China (very close)
3. Singapor
4. South Korea
5. India

This is just my opinion, feel free to comment.

It depends on what you mean by "powerful" To me, that word implies military strength, which is of course a silly discussion.

If you mean which country is more relevant in the world, economically, I also don't think you could say Japan is most "powerful". The sheer amount of the world's consumer goods produced by China, not to mention the massive amount of natural and financial (remember, many countries are in debt to China, including the US) resources that China can use to their advantage.

You could certainly argue that culturally, Japan is more relevant. I know there are tons of people around the world who are really into Japanese culture. Of course we can't forget the Japanese contributions to the field of electronics in terms of innovation.

But to me, at least, Japan is a country on the decline. They made huge gains when they were the country able to supply cheap consumer goods (cars, electronics, etc) to the West, but they are being surpassed by the up and comers, China and India. India already produces cars sold in the UK, and I feel the Chinese aren't far behind. And where was your iPhone made, your iPad? Your socks, your buttons, your zippers? Half the components the computer you are using right now? China.

This is my ranking of relative "power" in East Asian countries:

1. China (Economic boom, people rapidly becoming richer, manufacturing)
2. Japan (Fully modernized, cutting-edge tech, high life expectancy)
3. India (Beginning to industrialize, manpower, but marred by crowding and disease)
4. South Korea (Wealthy population, high HDI)
5. Micro-states Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau, and Brunei (Dense, wealthy population)
6. Russia (Economic boom, immense amount of natural resources)
7. Taiwan (Democratic nation, wealthy population, high HDI)
8. Thailand and Malaysia (Decently wealthy population)
9. Philippines (Western connections, population avoids poverty)
10. Vietnam and Laos (Communist economies beginning to transform into a mixed economy)
11. Burma and Cambodia (Government difficulties, poor population)
12. Indonesia and Bangladesh (Have potential that hasn't yet been reached)
13. Nepal, Sri Lanka, East Timor (Low population and land area)
14. North Korea, Mongolia, Bhutan (Low HDI, population distribution uneven)

Vietnamese still living in Vietnam here. Here is what I thought about the situation:

1 - The whole thing with the isles and the sea is just a plan made by the Chinese communist leaders to steer the focus of the Chinese in China into nationalism and forget about the real problems in China ( corruption, tyranny, economical disparity, injustice, pollution, human rights ...). The scheme of the Chinese Communists ( I mean the leaders here) is pretty simple, they want to tell the mass that: " Hey, of course there are problems in China and within the party but we have bigger problems to deal with. Therefore you (the mass) need us (the party) to fight against the evil Japan and the ungrateful Vietnam and make China become a powerhouse to restore our pride".

One thing you should notice is that these shits have always been happening right before some big political events in China (a big change is about to happen within the Chinese communist party and the Chinese leaders are fighting with each other. A high profiled Chinese communist - Bo Xi Lai - just got dethroned and jailed and the factions within the Chinese Communist Party are trying to re-distribute power). After everything is settled down, everything will be back to normal (or somewhat normal).

2 - IMO, there wont be a big war waged by China but small, transient ones can happen. This is because as I said above, the China communist leaders hate each other more than how a typical Muslim hates a Jew. These Commies are too busy to fight and compete with each other to care about fighting against other countries. And a real war against Japan or Vietnam or Taiwan can be a very risky move for any leader of China. If they win, thats good, the leaders still hold the power. But if they lose, it can cost the leaders everything, even their own lives. The battle inside the communist politburo is very fierce (Im talking about what I know in Vietnam) so a big mistake like losing a war can be very devastating to one faction and be a huge opportunity for the other ones. Thats why the Chinese leaders wont make such move.

But of course, whenever some political scandal happens or the Chinese mass become angry toward the party, China will trigger the problems with the islands, Tibet, China-vs-America ... again to redirect public opinion.

3 - Its very hard for Chin

I was never really made aware of any anti-Vietnamese sentiment in China. They certainly hate the Japanese, but I have never hear anything against Vietnamese.

Cont'd from above

3- Its very hard for China to surpass the US economically. America is playing a very subtle tactic here. They invest a lot of money into China but these money arent distributed evenly between Chinese, only a small number of ppl will get benefit from the economical growth in China, ie the rich. The rest of the population will suffer the consequences of the economical growth like pollution, stress, economical disparity ...

And when the US pours money into China, they are just investing. Because the rich Chinese (they are generally smarter than the rest of population) will start caring about other things than just money. So they will tend to move to other countries to enjoy things that they cannot have in China, ie: more kids, better environments, human rights ... and America is the most common choice. So the money that the US have invested into China will return to America from the rich Chinese who immigrate to the US or just come to the US to shop (conspicuous consumption is pretty traditional and conspicuous among Chinese and Vietnamese). Thats why China will still remain to be a factory.

4 - Asia has always been full of hatred between each other. Koreans always hate the Japs. Chinese has been butthurt by Japs for centuries. Japs are xenophobic toward every other countries in Asia. Pakistan and India will still hate each other. Cambodians always hate Vietnamese and Thais. And Vietnamese always detest anything from China ( that of course doesnt apply to every individual, but this observation is still right in the big picture scale.)

5 - And there will be no winners and losers here. Many ppl tend to analyze politics as a game between nations and countries. I myself tend to see politics as a game of individuals. Just like a game in Warlight, its a battle between you and me instead of between the red and blue armies.

And in the current political game, you (everybody here) and I are just troops to be forced to deploy or move into a territory and die. And if you think you are free, then you are a neutral territory then, you still have a lot of chance to be killed anyway. Just check your stats after every game to see how many troops (yours, your enemies's and neutral) have been killed.

Perhaps the best thing is to be an abandoned neutral territory, but you still can be in trouble if you are holding a strategic point.

6 - Meanwhile, there is a huge fighting between communist leaders in Vietnam. Within a month, several super rich guys and medium-profiled communists in Vietnam have been jailed. Shits are so entertaining to watch :D

I do not really trust future projections of other countries that news sources provide. I know that a few years ago it was predicted that Japan will have a larger economy than the US, but that never happened. The same type of predictions are being made for India and so far they do not meet expectations. If anyone will win out over other asian countries I think it will be China. Does anyone else feel the same way?

As someone who has lived in Shanghai for 4 years, I would say that visiting certain parts of China honestly blows peoples minds. Whilst there are the rural areas of beauty, these are expected by people who visit. They do not expect Shanghai to be as modern as it is. Wealth has turned it into one of the most impressive cities in the world. The night skyline looks like something out of a cyberpunk movie like Bladerunner or one of the great anime cyberpunks like Ghost in the Shell or Akira.

For someone who wants to see what I mean, just look at shanghai at night across the bund:

http://www.chinatourguide.com/china_photos/shanghai/attractions/hrc_shanghai_huangpu_night_view.jpg

To put it in perspective, the three biggest buildings, the one in the foreground that looks like something out of a 1980s scifi (the pearl tower), and the sharp looking building (Jin Mao Tower) and the bottle opener at the back are amongst the tallest buildings in the world. The bottle opener (or the SWFC) is the tallest building in mainland China and is 494 meters, making it in the top 5 biggest buildings in the world, incidentally also has the highest observation deck in the world.

I don't think people realise to the extent that China has modernized, but it is obvious, especially when you go to Shanghai or Hongkong, how China passing the US can easily be a reality.

Just saw this as well:

And when the US pours money into China, they are just investing. Because the rich Chinese (they are generally smarter than the rest of population) will start caring about other things than just money. So they will tend to move to other countries to enjoy things that they cannot have in China, ie: more kids, better environments, human rights ... and America is the most common choice. So the money that the US have invested into China will return to America from the rich Chinese who immigrate to the US or just come to the US to shop (conspicuous consumption is pretty traditional and conspicuous among Chinese and Vietnamese). Thats why China will still remain to be a factory.






Unfortunately as someone who knows some rich chinese people well, they don't care about living in the US that much or human rights or democracy a huge amount. This is often a flaw of people who live under democracy, that people who don't want to be under it too. The one party state does things well in China and whilst they are protested by a small minority over certain issues (mainly corruption and discrimination of certain minorities and freedom of speech), most people are content to live under the state.

The American lifestyle is also inferior to that a rich chinese person can have (a quite rich chinese person can live like a God in China, only to be slightly rich in the US) and this is also the same for US expatriotes. Stuff is more expensive, they get taxed more. Itis a misconception made by people who don't know the lifestyle too well.

Similarly, people don't understand the one child policy and why it doesn't really apply to the rich chinese, who can essentially have as many kids as they want. They just have to pay for their kids education (which is cheaper than paying US tax). Most rich chinese will send their kids to private schools anyhow, which will negate this completely. Whilst the rich chinese may go to the US on holiday, most of the richest Chinese make their money within China, selling to Chinese people.

The main draw of the west for China (though it is different for India and other countries who do not yet have a similar lifestyle to the west in big cities), is not the lifestyle, but the education. The rich chinese want to send their kids to US and UK universities. Ivy league and Oxbridge are big draws for them as that kind of higher education system does not yet exist in China.

What i am learning in AP Economics may have some relevance here, Humans are a natural resource, because China has such a large supply of natural resources (humans) and land there economy will surpass America, especially because of the lack of regulations. In China it is much easier to start a business than it is in America due to the lack of regulations. In China you do not need to provide health care for your employes or have a minimum wage. In America both of these are required, which for someone working for a business is good, but for those starting businesses is bad. Due to the trouble with starting businesses and the lack of people, the economy in America will fall to that of China.

Also the American Military is the highest employing corporation in the world. China is the second, while China's economy flourishes so will the government, due to taxes, and with the government getting more money they will have a larger military. Also there is the Guns of Butter, the idea that a country can produce so much good, when they produce more military strength, there will be less consumer goods. This is the reason that America won the Cold War with Russia, Americas economy was bigger so while still being able to produce enough consumer goods, it still out produced Russia in Nukes and other military items. When China's economy surpasses America's they will be able to out produce America, currently the most powerful nation, and become number one.

Japan lacks the most important natural resource, humans. Along with this they have very little land compared to many nations. There interest in robotics is not completely for fun but also for necessity. With there small population, they require robots to make up for the work that there people can't. Due to their robots, they will remain a player in the world economy for now.

This is all from the point of view of a 16 year old American so some of it is probably wrong, please let me know what is so i can better educate myself

Some very interesting observations here.

I am in South Korea and like people have said about the modernity of some cities in China. Seoul and South Korea can definately not be considered 3rd world or developing it is the 12th largest economy in the world Seoul is one of the biggest in the world and everything is very modern.

Park Chung-hee set Korea on the road to it's current status developing the economy and also the rural areas (No need to go into his controversies here). So South Korea does not have the poor rural areas in the same way that China does the economy is more evenly spread - though it still has East - West disparities. But then it is smaller. South Korea also has it's own soft power as Ironheart touched on in music (K-pop) it is exceeding Japan as an exporter also in gaming and T.V and film it exports culture. So I think it will continue to do well, utilising soft diplomatic power and real economic power. Whilst it certainly has problems - low birth rates and the North Korean issue. Which places it in the American camp, though this drawback also gives it access to high end military hardware and training and a firm alliance with the U.S.

But like a lot of Asian countries this century it will struggle with inflation, as the populace gets richer wages go up and goods cost more. China is buffered from this to a large extent by it's large labour force but I still think we will see a relative rise in Asian wages compared to Western wage rises making it harder for an export driven economy to thrive.

Alababi mentions drum beating in China to distract attention from any internal problems and I do think he makes a pertinent point. The presumed new Chinese leader is no where to be seen and China sends ships to Sensaku/Diaoyu this is a tactic that probably all governements use to an extent - Americans will no doubt remember how terror warnings would coincide with elections not so long ago. And like other states with a similar structure a war is a dangerous thing to fight if you cannot command an immediate and comprehensive victory. So China will probably avoid full blown war with Japan, South Korea or VIetnam etc. Much easier to focus on countries like the Phillipenes who lack a navy.

(Ironheart the Vietnamese see the Chinese as historical invaders due to history and see their northern neighbour as a dangerous threat, as the threat only goes one way it''s understandable that the Chinese don't care so much.)

And I am wary of seeing the Chinese system as only positive for it's economy there are some correlations between it's rising super-power status and differing ideologies threatening America as with the U.S.S.R - American cold war. And the totaliatarian state of the U.S.S.R eventually imploded - taking many observers by surpries at the completeness of the collapse. Whilst China is certainly plotting a different course we can never be completely sure what will happen over the next decades.

I've said so much and yet I know I have missed so much. But a very interesting read so far. :)

In terms of biggest employers, believe top 10 goes according to wikipedia:

1.US: Department of Defense (3.2 million)
2. China: People's Liberation Army (2.3 million)
3. US: Walmart (2.1 million)
4. US: McDonald's 1.9 million (including franchises (about 90% franchises)
5. UK: National Health Service (1.7 million)
6. China: National Petroleum Corporation (1.6 million)
7. China: State Grid Corporation of China (1.5 million)
8. India: Indian Railways (1.4 million)
9. India: Indian Armed Forces (1.3 million)
10. Taiwan: Foxconn (1.2 million)

As expected, the list is dominated by the US (300mill), China (1.3 bill) and India (1.2 bill) as the three most populous countries in the world. However, the US DOD figure quoted includes civilian staff, the Chinese figure doesnt. Comparing the actual military sizes, the US slips down to 6th at about 1.55 million.

Also, Japan has a massive population proportional to the size of the Island (similar to the UK in that respect) and is just under 1/2 the size of the pop of the US at 130 million. Why robotics? There are several reasons for it. You could talk about the meiji restoration, but truthfully a lot of it is to do with mecha anime/manga, especially the Gundam anime and figurines and Astroboy.