option 2

@Quicksilver: If Rufus is coming from the north part of China, he should be able to calculate quite easily by now that we took Caucasus. Because of the position of the +4, taking Central Russia would have costed us significantly less deployment. For this reason he should know that it takes him another turn before he can border our income. If Rufus determines that he won't border our income next turn, I doubt he will deploy too much in China.

Edited 9/10/2020 20:51:37

He probably should tho, because if we catch him before our border and he has no stack advantage, that sucks for him.

So, losing +3, sealing away Africa and gaining +4 next turn while blocking Brazil and a stack double bordering on opponents +5 bonus.

Call me insane, but that's a good play right there.

I haven't thought about the option of Rufus moving his stack to Africa and blockading Brazil. At first glance this option seems completely nonsense. At second glance that option still looks crazy but then again it could also turn out to be crazy smart instead of crazy stupid.

I don't really see a downside to it; would you expect your blockade not to work here? You'd give up an unsafe CA here for a safe WA/EA. Not only are you able to get another bonus, you secure EA with it too (especially if Rufus thinks we're in CR instead of Cauc).

So, losing +3, sealing away Africa and gaining +4 next turn while blocking Brazil and a stack double bordering on opponents +5 bonus.

Call me insane, but that's a good play right there.

It's not insane, we already yesterday found this to be our "main prediction" for the next turn. The question is, how much we can rely on it and if we have another way of playing that doesnt gamble on exactly this.

next thread should be Rufus vs The World Turn 5 Real-Time where you all experienced folks discuss what you would do on first glance

@Farah: As I said, at second glance that option looks "crazy smart".


The reason why I haven't seen the option of blockading Brazil was due to some "general patterns" in my mind. This would be a blockade to a bonus where Rufus has the advantage and is the guy who is putting on the pressure. Blockading Brazil immediately releases all pressure on us of Rufus taking over that bonus. I have seen quite some guys completely throwing games by such kind of blockades. However as I said, at second glance that option then again looks more like "crazy smart".

The question is, how much we can rely on it and if we have another way of playing that doesnt gamble on exactly this.

I wouldn't rely on this. It's an option however Rufus could also very well do something like taking over South America. Have I mentioned already that the "Berserk" works against both of those possible movesets from Rufus?

Edited 9/10/2020 21:21:37

I think Rufus taking over South America would lose him the game. I don't see how it's advantageous. Either he fails it and loses the game immediately, or he takes it and has to immediately defend the bonus next turn, costing him armies which could be spent on attacking.

I agree. Taking over South America is not a good try, because even if perfectly succeeding, I'm not convinced it is beneficial for him really.

@Norman, the risky thing about the berserk is to attack Brazil with half a stack, which is basically the worst possible outcome, because you kill your stack on armies that get blockaded afterwards. By the way, Rufus can pull off a nice Timi-blockade here.

Edit : already been said by other people.

Edited 9/10/2020 21:37:32

@AI: I'm not entirely sure what you mean, however I believe you are missing a crucial point of the "Berserk": Of course we need to completely outdelay Rufus. I guess I have to create another custom scenario in order to show how awesome the Berserk will (could...) turn out.

@Cloud Strife: If Rufus takes over South America, he will hit Venezuela strongest. We wouldn't really have any stack advantage.

edit: double post

Edited 9/10/2020 21:40:09

Oh I do know what you mean. And I'm not saying it can't succeed, I'm just saying that I dont think it's very likely to succeed and it could even go very wrong. That being said, I dont mind proposing it to vote for, it is certainly an option.

Well,28 v 12 is advantage. Also, he will still need to invest in his double border to break our +5. We kinda don't as we can't save it so we try to drag the game into mud with CA and SA broken. With OD card we should definitely break Venezuela on the way back. Granted, he might go for SA blockade then but it's really sub optimal compared to blocking now and not wasting armies.

And this is his best case scenario vs what we are likely to do.

Alternatively, he could invest in SA now but if he wanted the dogfight in CA/SA he'd have hit Venezuela last turn. Anyaways, I'd take both those options over him showing up in Xinjiang with stack and blockading Brazil, prepping WA.

Here is my custom scenario: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=23892655
You just have to think imagine here that both players play an Order Delay card and that Rufus attempts to blockade Brazil but we crush his armies there. A so called "Timinator blockade" only works if you get last order btw.

Rufus will win

Here is my custom scenario: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=23892655

Don't get me wrong, I really, really like the plan but I don't think :
a) he will go for SA
b) he will use OD card and try to outdelay us
c) he is on the north path. Last turn's actions make me believe he already knew exactly where we are and what we are doing. I think he's turning up in Xinjiang this turn.

Edit : It still is a viable option. I'd like to see it in suggestions too, maybe tweaked a bit though.

Edited 9/10/2020 22:22:12

Last turn's actions make me believe he already knew exactly where we are and what we are doing. I think he's turning up in Xinjiang this turn.

But why was he missing 4 deploy when taking Tibet then? Had no leftovers in EC?

But why was he missing 4 deploy when taking Tibet then? Had no leftovers in EC?

Either his leftovers weren't in Hong Kong or he is also moving elsewhere. Why are you asking this? I mean, it's something you know the answer to and not even the counterargument to anything. Why is he missing 4 if he is going through Mongolia?