"6 losses, 6 posts. Posting losses only, interesting."

I noticed that too. He had 75% 1v1 last I looked, but only posts the losses.

Dear Diary - They say I'm weird. They say I post only losses instead of bragging how amazing a player I am. I indeed could post my wins like most people do, but it would not make my strategy any better, would it? Unfortunately posting losses is not very helpful either as they all think i am just another forum troll. That's sad. You know my intentions are pure. I think I will make an exception for this player I've just met, as he is such a nice person! I wonder if he's handsome - oh come on! He has to be! Ugly blokes are not that open. Guys on the forums will be soo jealous. Yes. I will post it! Will do it now!

Poundland vs Taurus:

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6747971

Turtle - what would you have changed in the way I played against The swimming potato?

Slammy - My intentions are pure. There will be no clever reveal, and I am by no means anyone's clone, nor copycat. I am using an alt, so that people are not biased by my weak record and poor in-game reputation.

Ace Windu - I think it all depends on predicted income of the player compared to your.

Swimming Potato - where would you pick better? What would you have done differently in my shoes?

G.Arun - more often than not I would agree with that, but not when there's another front open. The idea of waiting or taking a longer route is to have a doubleborder with the enemy together with approaching with slightly bigger stack. However - when one front's already been opened you may want to rush to make sure the enemy will not secure the open one before you approach him on the other side of the map.

What's the point of rushing if you may not be successful? You should only rush if you have a sizeable stack already in the area (one that won't be combatted by the opponent's income easily, or cause you to overdeploy there allowing you opponent to gain cheeky ground on the other front).

G.Arun - I was referring to a situation where you already have some advantage on one side of the map, but you need that single confusing contact elsewhere in order to force enemy to split deploy.

Another Walmart agent kicked my parking lot.

Poundland vs verve

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6748129

I think we both picked pretty badly, but I have misplayed big time. Any suggestions?

Edited 8/4/2014 12:51:33

Yes, Poundland, but what I meant still stands. If I know you have the advantage, and you rush the attack and I know for a guaranteed success against my income you need to commit armies in Russia, I will take the risk on the other front, full deploy there and rape you.

Verdict: If you rush attack you MUST have enough armies to not require mass deployment next turn. If you already have an advantage, you shouldn't have to rush anyway :)

Edited 8/4/2014 13:39:39

Poundland - you should not be surprised. you totally looked like a troll since the very beginning of this thread.

Arun - I must take Pound's side on this. If he is an aggressor, and he'll take you to a stalemate at one side with his slight advantage, then after getting to you on the other side, he will force you to at least guess and deploy somewhere. It may be a single-turn shot, but it can be enough to break the stalemate.. think about it for a while :)

It will break the stalemate for sure, but which way? If he intends to attack Scand, and must deploy to ensure attack success, I (the defender should win). It all depends on player skill. A noob aiming to smash Scand would lose. A master using the attack to wrong foot me may well win.

"I indeed could post my wins like most people do, but it would not make my strategy any better, would it? "

Why wouldn't it? You don't actually think you play perfect in the games you win do you? Typically both players make errors in a game, the winner just typically makes fewer or less severe mistakes. There's still much to learn from ones wins.

For example, that game vs. Taurus:

The 2v1 turn is is a mistake as far as I am concerned. Your chances of actually completing Central Russia turn 1 were a measly 6.14%. Your chances of wasting armies and needing to deploy more than you would by not gambling in order to finish the bonus were much higher.

Turn 3, the deployment to South America was not worth it, you gave yourself a 51.2% chance to finish the bonus.

One of two other decisions were better IMO.

1. Attack in South America turn 1 or 2 with a 3v2 to attempt to set yourself up for turn 4, this way a 3v2 failing turn 3 doesn't set you behind on finishing SA, because you can then choose to deploy 1 more army to 2v1 it if necessary, but not deploy anything there till turn 4 if successful.

2. Deploy 1 to SA, just enough to ensure the 4v2 succeeds, but still leaving yourself a 64% chance of success rather than 51.2% in Russia.

I like the first option the best of the three (the two I mentioned and what you chose).

Turn 5. You know he hasn't finished West Africa. Hit him. 6 + 22 = 28 to attack with. You can assume he has 13 income fairly easily by viewing the board (yes even with fog, there's only so many sane spots to pick, you can see CA and AA, and Scand.

You not only could expect a 4 income lead, but you had a bigger stack so hitting first order (and getting first order) ensured a 28v21. Totally profitable.

You kill 17 armies, he kills 15. You knock his stack to 4 armies, if he tries to finish the bonus he has to succeed a 3v2, and even if he succeeds the next turn you have equal income but a staggering stack advantage setting you up for a 13+4+17=34 v 18, which breaks West Africa.

This is close to what you did, but I wouldn't have reccomended deploying the armies to hit Central America. If it was turn 4 and you needed another card piece, yes. But not on turn 5, on turn 5 the card piece didn't much matter since the chances the game was going to reach turn 9 (the next reinforcement card) were nil.

Edited 8/4/2014 15:00:20

Very good analysis Good Kid. Thank you. I must admit, you got it all right.

Now a game with bad picking, and bad breaking strategy. After going into the scandinavian bonus, the game should have turned into an easy win for me, but I have been vastly outplayed, and soon outexpanded. With some neutral attack luck a humiliating loss to Sainsbury's was inevitable:

Poundland vs GoDL1k3

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6752884

edit:

A question to pro players: What should i have picked there?

Edited 8/5/2014 05:37:40

That was a good play by godlike.

I would have picked Antarctica, West Russia, Scandinavia, East China, Western China , West Africa.

Even though i think the problem was not so much the picking, but the move into Murmansk at such an early stage of the game. That allowed him to mass his army stacks and you cleared a few more neutrals.
It would have done you no harm to just sit one or two turns and mount a stack yourself and wait for a mistake of your opponent. Once you have a bigger stack you can still bust his bonuses while maintaining a threat in the area.
Patience.

The title of this thread seemed gui-like to me, so i didnt bother giving advice assuming there would be some big reveal to come. Even if this is gui then it seems there is no big reveal coming so analysis time:

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6729440 this is a bit of a noodler isnt it? Its hard to see room for improvement in your play and diyon still won. Diyon looks like he is playing sarcastically. His disinterest in breaking indonesia is contemptuous.

Its hard to see room for improvement in your play and diyon still won

hmmm

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6729389 it seems like a death of 1000 cuts. Except you only took about half a dozen. Too many wrong guesses. It seems to take quite a reserved player to really punish guessers when theyre wrong.

turn 2 hongkong to myanmar was bad. Why? Why attack with 3 and not use them to get the bonus and make Westafrica stronger?

It serves no purpose at all. Not for expansion, not for checking for the enemy.

So the problem was not guessing wrong, but making an attack when you did not use your leftofters properly. That is what punished Poundland.

Edited 8/5/2014 08:25:06

Deadpiggy - What do you generally think of the "contemptuous" strategy of not-breaking bonusses but expanding elsewhere instead? Is it usually worth it? You gain time for the price of potential elimination from some parts of the map. Where to draw a line? What's of a greater value?

In regard to the last post - I'm all with myhand. I should have used the leftovers and deploy to Africa instead of china. As a matter of fact I now see my attack to SEA was a major mistake. It served only an imaginary purpose while not doing it would be a gamechanger, as I would easily take WA or break SA with the stack advantage I'd have had.

Thank you all for the feedback I got so far. More games about to come soon.

Edited 8/5/2014 08:28:08

Poundland vs look.at.how.legendary.I.am.just.look.at.all.the.achievements.I.have.listed.below

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6753987

Win by refusal.

Edited 8/5/2014 10:04:12

No, i think not breaking bonuses its a terrible idea, as borne out by just about every ladder game ever played. The fact that it worked for him in this game incenses me. You could have used 3v2s to take CA and made more effort to expand into SA. Gotten into russia via SEA instead of letting it get blockaded. Taken spain with a little more haste. But you clearly followed the generally agreed on bet practice and he didnt.

Anyway

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6729542 so many wrong guesses. One major one every other turn. Perhaps you should stop trying to guess and play a tighter game, come back to guessing when you have the experience to pull it off. Perhaps we are only seeing the few times your guesses are bad, and on balance youre a great guesser. Either way its hard to give useful analysis if youre only posting loses due to bad guesswork.

Thanks piggy. I know sometimes it's due to bad guessing. Only - I probably had to hear it from somebody like you - I guess. Yes - that was supposed to be a pun. A pun! A pun! I can make rape music!

The next one is not at all worth analysing, but to remain consequent:

Poundland vs Tactical Incursion

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6754510

Edited 8/5/2014 12:16:25

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6729565 Turn 5 dodge to gulf coast, he cant hit it and its closer to his bonuses. its also not killing neutrals in the almost completed bonus. Missing all those 3v2s prolly played a big part in the loss. You used 2v2s really well in china, youre a good player experimenting with an alt i think. post more of these experimental strategies and less losses please.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6731235 One of the rules i use for triples is that if 2 of the 3 bonuses would make a good double pick then dont triple, the chance of your enemy either picking 1/3rd of it or countering it are too high. Just pick the double and stop being fancy. Turn 5 he very likely had completed his 2 other bonuses so guessing he was gonna go all in on scand that turn is not hard.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6731921 I couldnt understand your thought process for quite a long time, but now i do and its quite good. TBC