(disclaimer: this post is tongue-in-cheek and in response to krinid's and my realization yesterday that these raffle logs could also be used to find the real "raffle tyrants")TL;DR: Every raffle entry is a crime against Global Chat. You can find out how you were personally victimized by going to https://bit.ly/raffle-tyrants, https://bit.ly/raffle-enmity, https://bit.ly/raffle-theft, and https://bit.ly/raffle-victimsFriends, I have a shameful confession to make: I
too am a raffle thief! You see, between April 13, 2021, and September 25, 2021, I entered 48 raffles, earning 27 coins by winning 6 of them. Had I not engaged in such shameful and selfish behavior, those
chances I cruelly
stole from others would have stayed in the hands of my fellow entrants. In a world where I had not entered the raffles, others would have expected nearly
44 more coins! If I had not won any of those 6 criminal raffles and my winnings had simply been distributed to the other entrants, 27 coins would today be in the hands of others.
But it's not just me. We are all guilty of raffle fraud, a
serious coinancial crime.
Every coin is a crimeEvery time someone wins a raffle, others must necessarily lose. We join for free, and we take and take and take without consideration. Those 1486 coins krinid won could have gone toward nobler causes: funding Shin's gambling addiction, paying Z to stop waiting for RaffleBot at the cost of delaying his bedtime, even helping Parsifal afford the toilet paper he so urgently needs. Instead, krinid
grabbed them for himself!
What would have happened if krinid had been so kind as to not win any raffles? We can model the expected values for how his winnings would have been fairly distributed to the other players who joined the raffles a player won. In the matrix below, the value in the box indicates how many additional expected coins the player in the row would have if the raffle coin winnings of the player in the column been evenly distributed to other entrants, with the "Impact" values representing total coins taken (by column) or lost (by row):
You can check the spreadsheet at
https://bit.ly/raffle-tyrants to know exactly how much each other player
took from you by having the audacity to win raffles.
No... not just that- every entry is a crime!Suppose 5 players joined a 6-coin raffle. They would each have 1.2 expected coins won from that raffle... but then a sixth player sees the raffle. Lacking even the tiniest morsel of social courtesy, they join. The instant they do, those 5 other entrants each lost 0.2 expected coins! Unfortunately, Warzone Rules say nothing about this... but surely we can all agree this is a brazen, despicable, criminal act. We can also see what would have happened had each player demonstrated the
general sense to simply stop entering raffles.
In the matrix below, the value in the box indicates how many additional expected coins the player in the row would have gained had the player named in the column not been cruel enough to join the raffle, with the "Impact" row summarizing the damage each raffler did to their enemies (aggregated by column):
You can find the full version at
https://bit.ly/raffle-enmity to see how much others cost you (and how much you cost others).
Now, you might notice that these are largely symmetrical- the expected coins faxfox cost JK_3 are the same expected coins JK_3 cost faxfox- because each of them hurt the other by joining the same raffles! The only exception to this comes from single-entry raffles, where that single-entrant hurt the
innocent players who signed up for raffles after theirs but did not get hurt by them back...
We all hurt one another by joining these raffles. There is no ethical coinsumption under raffitalism.
Who costs whom more?If you look at our raffle tyranny matrix (the first image in this post), you'll notice that it's
not symmetrical. By winning raffles, John Smith took 146 expected coins from awaythro... but awaythro only took back 125. How grotesquely unfair!
We can look at these differences to find
raffle thieves, those who took more from others than they took from them, and
raffle victims (the opposite of raffle thieves). In the matrix below, the boxes represent the
net expected coins the player named in the column snatched from the player named in the row, with the impact row aggregating the total net crimes of the perpetrator and the impact column aggregating (by row) the total net losses of the victim:
We can now see the asymmetric side of that faxfox-JK_3 relationship. JK_3's wins cost faxfox nearly 12 more coins than faxfox's wins cost JK_3. How shameful! Give them back, JK! You can look at the full version and see how you fit in by going to
https://bit.ly/raffle-theft.
Adding it all up...So who
are the greatest enemies, tyrants, and thieves?
Well, my friends, I have sad news: the answer has always been hidden in plain sight. The Raffle Gods are the Raffle Tyrants. There's some noise in the data because I only looked at what happened between the players who joined the raffles at least 36 times... but you can see it below:
Raffle Tyrants take coins away by winning raffles. Therefore, the greatest Tyrants are simply those that won the most coins. The impact of their tyranny is just what would happen if their winnings were evenly distributed to those that joined at the same time as them. The greatest Raffle Tyrant? None other than krinid, who won the most coins.
Similarly, the worst Raffle Enemies? They're just the players with the greatest expected coins won, because the impact of being someone's raffle enemy is just what would happen (on average) if you hadn't joined any raffles and instead had your expected winnings distributed evenly to everyone else:
The greatest Raffle Enemy of the Public? John Smith, who had nearly 1600 expected coins!
What about Raffle Thieves and Victims?
Remember a while back when we looked at who overperformed at the raffles?
This is the same idea:
Raffle Theft is just your actual winnings distributed to other players minus others' actual winnings distributed back to you based on your expected winnings. So the biggest Raffle Thieves? Simply the players who overachieved the most: Ocean0.1, Gunk, Splat, Hodop, and the like.
Who hurt you?But that's not important. How are
you personally victimized here? You can check at
https://bit.ly/raffle-victims to find your:
-
Raffle Nemesis: the raffle enemy whose raffle entries took the most expected coins from you
-
Raffle Oppressor: the raffle tyrant whose raffle wins took the most expected coins from you
-
Top Thief: the player whose wins took more expected coins from you than you did from them, by the widest margin
-
Top Victim: the player who
you took the most expected coins from, by winning, relative to how much they took from you
Here it is for the top 30 raffle participants:
And here's how often some players are others' nemeses, oppressors, top thieves, and top victims:
There you have it, folks!No one's hands are clean. All of us have evaded justice so far, but no one can evade the righteous public shaming. Let the lynching begin. We must have mob justice! Get to it, then- start sending itemized receipts to those who have hurt you, coinancially.
