BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-13 22:54:54 |

Math Wolf
Level 64
Report
|
Since most lists about maps are based on quantity, I have developed a metric that summarizes quality and success for map makers, which includes quantity as well. The exact formula (beware math) is below. The final results are as follows: 1 RA 43.558
2 Incaman 42.998
3 Срећко 40.829
4 Fizzer 38.125
5 [中国阳朔]Chaos 32.633
6 Major Risk 30.994
7 Issander 30.741
8 The King [Belgian G... 30.638
9 Roblexa Caritelisa 948 28.971
10 {rp} pedrito 28.401
11 Ottaman 26.580
12 Troll 25.847
13 Caia Veloso 25.441
14 Qi 22.770
15 Saruman 22.537
16 Grundie 22.021
17 Apollo 21.693
18 Kheimon 20.261
19 Muppet 19.953
20 Vampires – Kayn 19.824
21 Moros 18.292
22 Dameon 17.976
23 [中国阳朔]TexasJohn 17.500
24 King Philip 17.339
25 Nate 16.301
26 C.K – 胖鹌鹑 16.216
27 eliod 15.999
28 DynamiteT 15.622
29 Dogrosebush 15.140
30 Phil 14.722
31 Smok 14.275
32 Koger 14.211
33 Arc Light 14.179
34 Ranek 13.831
35 NinjaNic 13.702
36 Huruey • apex 13.622
37 Urfang 13.621
38 sue 13.537
39 muligan 12.864
40 Megli 12.498
41 Guderian 11.611
42 Smorgborg 11.365
43 Gunz 11.315
44 Worldbeing 10.214
45 Traintown 10.079
46 Opum's Razor 9.817
47 Lord Syvedyas 9.705
48 Yeezus Theory 9.680
49 kendou 9.283
50 Jon Snow 9.233
59 Riyamitie 7.452
61 [NL] Willem van Oranje 7.297
66 Metaltubbie 6.561
67 Frankdeslimste • apex 6.553
69 skunk940 6.311
70 Clement Attlee 6.280
72 Nathan 5.882
137 Kroma 1.966
148 ChrisCMU 1.628
163 Bananashake 1.125
168 Sir Nick 0.992 *229 mapmakers were ranked. Extrapolating, I'm guessing there are at least ~400 mapmakers in total. For the formula: - Only maps with a rating higher than 3.5 were considered.
- Define the base score "B" of each map as its rating substracted by 3.5. This generates scores between 0 and 1. (Only maps with ratings higher than 3.5 were considers, no maps have ratings higher than 4.5).
Why 3.5? Because I only want to include maps with decent quality. Maps with ratings over 3.5 must have gotten at least half of the time a vote of 4 or regular votes of 5 stars. I found 4 too high as there are still many decent, often played, maps with ratings between 3.5 and 4. Also, at a first glance, the average and median ratings of maps both seem to be close to 3.5.
- Use V as notation for the number of votes for a map. The vote-corrected score S = B * V/(V+100). Thus, the score S is always higher than 0, and always lower than B. When a map has a large number of votes, S is close to B. When this number is low, S is closer to 0.
Why do I do this? There are two reasons: (1) more votes means a more reliable score. I want to avoid inflation from maps who just received some 10-15 votes of all the mapmaker's friends or alts. In general, the rating of (highly ranked) maps often tends to decrease when more votes are cast. Technically, I am adding 100 votes of "3.5", fictional users who pull the rating towards the generally expected mean. This could also be interpreted as a prior distribution. (2) more votes means more plays and more success. I don't just want to measure quality. You can have the best map on WL, but if nobody plays it, the success is limited. By downweighting with 100 fictional votes, I guarantee that maps who are rated often get most of their base score B in their corrected score S, while maps that are hardly played, only received a fraction of the base score. Example: 11 votes: S=B/10, 25 votes: S=B/5. 50 votes: S=B/3, 100 votes: S=B/2, 200 votes: S=2B/3, 900 votes: S=90% of B, over 2000 votes (most played maps): S > 95% of B (96.4% for the most played map).
- The score of each map maker is the weighted sum of his best 10 maps with ratings over 3.5. (Only 7 mapmakers actually had 10 or more maps with a rating over 3.5, for all others, only the available maps were counted). The weights were as follows: 25, 18, 14, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3. So the total score T=25*S1+18*S2+14*S3+... These weights do sum to 100, so technically, the maximum score that could be reached would be 150 (if a mapmaker had 10 maps, all ranked 5 with a huge amount of votes). In practice, I expected no mapmaker to score more than 50.
Why those weights? I thought it was important to give all mapmakers a fair chance, even those with a relatively small amount of maps. Thus, a few maps should carry most of the weight. Specifically, I wanted the first map to count as a quarter of the total score as this is the "masterwork". The first 3 maps cover more than half, with the first four maps covering over 2/3rd of the total score and the first half exactly three quarter (which implies that maps 2-5 count for half, 6-10 for a quarter and the first for a quarter).
- Note that the scores of the maps are sorted by vote-corrected score S and not by base rating B! As an example: Opum's Razor has a map with a rating of 3,9716 and 141 votes, so B=0.4716, V=141, S=0.276. Another map has a rating of 4.0000 and 48 votes, so B=0.5, V=48, S=0.162. Thus, the first map is given weight 25, the second (although with a higher rating), is given weight 18. The other way around, he would have been penalised for having his lower ranked map played more and his total score T would have been 9.021, which would have dropped him to 51st place.
- Summary of the formula: http://www.texpaste.com/n/zvr6xxne
- Scores were collected on November 11-November 13 and thus may show small innaccuracies. All scores above 4 were collected on the same day.
If anyone who was not ranked wants to know their rating and/or rank, feel free to ask.
Edited 11/15/2014 22:07:06
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-13 22:55:36 |

Math Wolf
Level 64
Report
|
Discussion of the results: - RA wins it, but just barely. The difference between RA and Incaman is obvious. While Incaman has 3 of the highest rates maps on Warlight, including the single highest rated map (Rise of Rome: 4,4448, S=0.901), RA beats him by the quantity of his quality: 7 maps rated 4 or higher with one extra rated 3.8896. No other mapmaker has more than 4 maps rated higher than 4. (although Apollo and Roblexa Caritelisa 948 both have 4 maps with rating higher than 4 and 1 with a rating of exactly 4 at the moment the data were gathered.)
- Срећко combines top quality (Europe Big, Modern Europe both rated over 4.3) with quantity (9 maps rated over 3.5). After his 3 highest rated maps, most aren't played very often, so he still has potential.
- Fizzer basically surfs on the success of all the Earth adaptations. Most of those are both highly and often rated. Medium Earth leads the way, but is overall only the 5th most rated map! (behind Earth, Europe, Rise of Rome and Imperium Romanum)
- [中国阳朔]Chaos is maybe the most consistent quality mapmaker around. I lost count of the number of maps in the 3.7-4.1 region with ~100 ratings that he has.
- Major Risk gets most of the success of the European Borders map, followed by 3 other highly ranked, but somewhat less played maps.
- Issander's highest rated map is hardly played, but his Huge World makes up for that. Many maps with high ratings, but some have very few ratings.
- The King, similarly to Issander combines the result of 2 highly rated maps (almost equal S score) with many other good quality maps.
- Roblexa Caritelisa 948 has a large amount of good quality maps, some of which are not often rated (including the highest rated map).
- Both {rp} pedrito and Ottaman have 2 highly rated, often played maps.
- Based on only the Europe map, Troll would still be ranked 15th.
- Caia Veloso, Kheimon, Vampires - Kayn, Dameon, [中国阳朔]TexasJohn and some others get most, if not all of their success from one highly rated and often played map.
- Qi, Saruman, Apollo, Muppet and Moros use decent quantity on the other hand. Apollo has over 10 qualified maps, but none of them is rated more than 100 times.
- Grundie equals Earth and small Earth. His maps are rated a combined 4400 times!
Edited 11/14/2014 10:03:24
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-13 23:00:41 |

Red Menace
Level 55
Report
|
I have a few projects in the making that will hopefully bump my very low score up.
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-13 23:07:16 |

Жұқтыру
Level 56
Report
|
Go, Statistician clan!
This is all looks like complex work, thanks! Now we finally know who is actually best.
Слава Срећки! Слава Ра-у!
And, also we know how self-inflated some people really are (skunk940...).
Edited 11/13/2014 23:07:58
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-13 23:51:03 |

Phulesdorp
Level 28
Report
|
{Wolf whistles}
That's a big list! I'm probably going to have to take a look at RA's maps after this.
... But I would really enjoy the formula more if it was presented just a little more elegantly (a very good example for this is Euler's identity). But if you don't, it's fine!
... It's just that I'm a sucker for nice-looking formulas. :p
Edited 11/14/2014 00:00:15
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 00:00:26 |

ScarlettTD
Level 57
Report
|
Nice work!
Thanks Math Wolf, a thorough analysis and a great read.
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 00:16:44 |

Math Wolf
Level 64
Report
|
@ Phulesdorp: http://www.texpaste.com/n/zvr6xxne@ Yeezus Theory: I personally feel every point above 0 is a contribution to WL as it means you made at least one map rated higher than 3.5. So I would never call your score low. I think it's not that easy to get into the top 50 of this ranking.
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 00:39:10 |

Phulesdorp
Level 28
Report
|
Nice. :)
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 03:44:26 |

Nate
Level 19
Report
|
Twenty fifth. hmm guess I better keep working.
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 07:37:56 |

skunk940
Level 60
Report
|
Good maths
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 10:36:15 |

Math Wolf
Level 64
Report
|
@ Beren Erchamion (& Apollo): That's mostly correct indeed. I do need the number of votes itself as those define the accuracy and precision of the rating (reason 1). But for the success (reason 2), it would be better to have the actual number of plays. Ideally, that part of the formula would be a product of terms including the number of votes and number of plays rather than just the votes.
As far as I know, there is no data on the number of plays of a map and guesstimates are very difficult to obtain, I think. So I feel that for average to highly rated maps, the number of votes is as good a proxy as any at this moment. (For lower rated maps, I think it would be a bad estimate as people would play once, vote and never play again.)
Additionally, multiplayer games get saved and stored and thus can be counted (technically), but single-player games not. (They do not have an ID!) So it may actually be impossible to retrospectively count the total number of plays of a map. It should be relatively easily (server side, crawler) to count the number of multiplayer games of a map.
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 13:40:24 |
An abandoned account
Level 56
Report
|
Well, Skunk is only 0.031 points ahead of me despite the fact he's made more maps than anyone and I've only ever made 5.
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 14:24:57 |

Moros
Level 50
Report
|
Wow, it's incredibly cool to see myself at place 21 of such a ranking, let alone one made using solid maths. Thank you!
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 20:02:13 |

Phulesdorp
Level 28
Report
|
So... from what I'm understanding, it's practically a Simpson's paradox to all "unpopular" maps? That's slightly discouraging for me and my mapmaking skills. :(
And will this list ever get expanded upon in the future (since I don't know what a crawler is, I'm taking it as a good sign)?
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 20:54:28 |

Incaman
Level 58
Report
|
Interesting :D but your whole value system is a bit flawed.
Edited 11/14/2014 20:55:07
|
BEST (most successful) mapmakers: 2014-11-14 21:55:16 |

Ranek
Level 55
Report
|
Thats right. next time, take care that incaman is the number one!^^
|
Post a reply to this thread
Before posting, please proofread to ensure your post uses proper grammar and is free of spelling mistakes or typos.
|
|