http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4539401

What mistakes lead to my downfall? I was 80% sure I had him Turn 7...

Looks like Turn 9 to me. Why did you go into South America? That was what cost you. You had a one income advantage, about to be a 4 income advantage. You gave up West Africa to attempt to break Antarctica, which you failed at. That was your biggest mistake.

You should have made the blocakde in East China bigger and since you made it so small, you should have been trying to move back toward there through Indonesia. Instead, you sat completely still, not even attacking with 2 or anything until it was too late.

You also miss out on a lot of the micromanagement things. Start watching ladder games of the top 10-15 players and you can pick up on these things pretty quick. Turn 19 for example. HHH attacks each territory with 2 in Antarctica and since you didn't deploy any there, he manages to take it. Nearly any very good player would have put 1-2 armies on one of the territoreis, making it more unlikely for HHH to take.

You were ahead early in the game, and what I would call a technically won position. Just a few errors plus some micromanagement issues cost you the game. HHH shows what makes a top player a top player. They make less mistakes than other players but the main thing is that they take advantage of others mistakes, no matter how small they might be.

I hoped this helped! I would be willing to work with you some on Strategic 1v1 if you want. You obviously are already a pretty good player but there's still a lot I could help you on.

Thanks for the feedback and I thought I could dive back in West Africa too last turn - the same turn he'd take it. Also thanks for the offer of help, I think I'll accept!
I have set up a 1v1 Strategic with you. :)

Turn 7 I'd have split 9 and 9 instead of 4 and 14, to optimize expansion on the next 2 turns (say, 3 and 6 in West Russia, 9 to Finland, then finish W Russia + 3 to Sweden and 6 to Norway to have possibly 3, maybe even 4 already there to take Svalbard).
At that stage you should guess right about his starting 3 anyway, so there is very little risk, if any, when not stacking up to Ufa.

Then I don't recommend blockading Beijing, because it won't ever slow down his stack down from Shanghai. A very aggressive player could have blockaded Shanghai on the same turn he'd lose Taiwan, but that's a real gamble. Then it's much better to blockade Hong Kong instead, because it will split up your pressure in Thailand and his useless stack in Shanghai. Though you'd have to be cautious he just doesn't complete East China taking a blockade of 11 with just a decent force (so staying alive in Beijing at least would be ideal).

You lost on not microing your defense in Africa (he completed W Af so easily), and wasting your blockade in Thailand while defending his own East China bonus (turns 10 11).

in general i think you lost on turn 7. isn't good lose North for break his +4 bonus imho.

Fascinatingly bad game for you. After turn 6 you spent a ton of income killing neutrals. Sersly. Count up the number of armies you lost to neutrals after you turn 6 when you should have been fighting HHH.

Thanks Mian, 9 and 9 makes a lot more sense now I think of it and I should have defended West Africa better...I was planning to get into there last turn from Brazil the turn he'd take it but it was too risky and he saw it coming.

Gnuff, Mian, and anyone else; do you not think turn 6-7 sacrifice of East China for north was a good one? It was a gamble if he got first turn but I don't see what else would break stalemate in Taiwan ...and it left me with a stack for expansion in Eurasia

and Tigger, I lost 11 more when fighting Neutrals than HHH did which definitely helped him win the game