Sorry again for the clickbait title, but I really need to draw your attention to the upcoming Search-Deploy-Commit episode featuring me as the guest (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ufLPi_fVls), as well as to remind you that Prime is recruiting (http://bit.ly/joinP)
With all the recent dramatic events in CW scene, a lot of assumptions have been voiced in the community:
- Top CW clans suck all the talents from the smaller clans
- CW scene gets consolidated with tighter competition
- We as a community should focus not on poaching players, but on attracting new players to Warzone (and CW)
Let's dig up some data and do some fancy charts!Disclaimers:
- This data is mostly collected via the responsible use of Warzone API. Yet due to limitations of the API scope (no free wins, "not games" and ghost locking), there may be discrepancies in case of people who do not have a real game in CW season.
- No alt-merging was done. If a player plays CW in different season with alts, then those will be registered as separate entities.
[1] Is CW consolidating?Lest see, how many unique players play CW and how they are distributed among clans with various seasonal ranks.
Insights:
- Yes, there is some consolidation which peaked and the went flat from CW Season 18
- This was the season when NEETs transfered to Prime, but that had no effect on the consolidation
- The consolidation actually happened by smaller transfers to clans like FDC, LFA, MH etc.
- Interesting enough, that the total amount of players not really increasing. Combined with the data from previous CW-mythbusting (increase in activity and short seasons), we might conclude, that the rise of CW activity is not because of influx of new players, but due to more games played by average player in a season
- Seasons 16,17 were the long 30+ day seasons, so more players managed to play at least 1 CW game
With games distribution, the trends are similar:
Insights:
- As expected the games are distributed more tightly than players. (Yea, people in top clans play CW more than in lesser clans)
- The period of 13-18 seasons when the TOP-2 clans increased their share of games is the period of fierce MBvMH competition
- Since then the main consolidation here happens because of the Top 3-5 bracket, clans in which increases their lead compared to Top-6-... clans
[2] Where are the new CW players?
Let's see a fancy chart of new players appearing in CW and players, who stop playing.
Disclaimer:
- The "player quitting in season N" means that starting from season N this player has not played any more CW games (or equivalently, his last CW game was in season N-1). The huge tails of "quitting players" in S23-24 are a side effect of that methodology.
- The brackets for new and quitting players are calculated at the moment of the season previous to the event of joining or "quitting".
Insights
- There are actually less new players joining CW in the latest seasons, which may be justified by season lengths. However I don't know how to compare the effects of longer/shorter season on the quitting rates
- The main inflow still happens in the lower bracket
- The spike of new players in season 17 is probably due to the season length
- Interesting, that there are a lot of quitting players form Top 3-5 bracket, which may be attributed to some kind of burnout
[3] So one clans drain all the talents from the CW scene or not? Where do people migrate?Lets check the volume and direction of players' transfers. "Upwards" means than a player migrated from lower bracket to a higher one, while "Downwards" means the opposite. "None" means that the migration happened within the bracket.
Insights:
- There are some distinct spikes of players migrating downwards, which represent major CW scene events:
- Season 6 - migrations to Harmony and "yolo swag yoyoyo"
- Season 7 - migrations to Discovery and Python
- Season 14 - migrations from THD to Fahrenheit, creation of Myth Busters roster
- Season 18 - migration of NEETs to Prime
- Season 21 - departure of many M'Hunters to Optimum
- Season 23 - creation of The Blue Devils from Le Furie Azzurre
- Excluding the mentioned spikes, there is indeed a stable upwards migration on average
Honorable mention: the "TR8R-leaderboard" of players switching CW clans the most:
[4] Fancy visualization of clan transfersDisclaimer: As there are 200+ clans who ever played CW, I initially filtered the most substantial transfer flows and then plotted all clans, who were involved in them.
The key insight here is that the NEETs-Prime transfer takes the TOP-1 spot in the history of CW transfers.
And with no drama! Just chill relaxing transfer, so that we could accept all idle players. :)
If you want to make the history of the Clan Wars in Warzone, you should definitely consider joining Prime!
PM FiveSmith or follow the neat hand-crafted application link: http://bit.ly/joinPPS. The Fancy Dot ● Clan is cool too.
And don't forget about the Search-Deploy-Commit episode coming this Monday, discussing clans and Warzone Idle!
The link to the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ufLPi_fVls
The teaser: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/mK274unViok
Edited 12/3/2022 12:42:21
