maybe im parroting everything because trying to steal first role was stupid as hell

only a mafia could be that bad

Little blue it's always worth lynching in the early game! Otherwise we gain no information.

Are you suggesting the witches just have a free night kill? We would be in exactly the same position tomorrow.

Out of interest there is a funny situation when no lynching (and no night kills) is best. Right near the end when a mislynch would cause a loss.

If there are 4 remaining players with one wolf and they mislynch its a draw or the wolf wins. After the night there are two players and then, depending on the rules, a no lynch (meaning wolves will win) or multi lynch (leading to a draw).

If you choose to no lynch and allow the wolf a free night kill you have a 1 in 3 chance the next day instead of a 1 in 4 chance of lynching a wolf.

Unfortunately the wolves no this and may choose not to night kill. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Happily_Ever_After,_Revisited.

We do gain information, we get the information from the seers, and from posts. How important it is to lynch greatly depends on the villager/wolf ratio. If you're in a situation with 1 wolf and 9 villagers, trying to lynch without any solid info to go off of will very likely result in a villager being lynched.

It's just my opinion, but for me this would basically just be a guess to lynch, and I can't see how that would possibly help us. Since we're ahead, it's better for us to play safe than risk burning through our villager population twice as quickly.

Voting no lynch is fine.

Gror, exactly.

Dr. Stupid, your beheiviour does not smack of wolf to me. At the moment I want better suspects lynched and Myhand to be proved so we can follow him.

This means a couple things. First, Myhand cannot vote first tomorrow. That means the night after next he must be protected. Also, we should agree on someone to vote first tomorrow so we don't give any of our potential targets safety.

@his balls

Interestingly enough, from your link:

in a theoretical 1 Mafia, 7 Townie game, the Town actually has a slight advantage if the Mafia is forced to kill, while the Mafia has an advantage if the Town is forced to lynch.

I don't know how to calculate the math even in a situation where the number of everything is known, but there are times when it's worse to lynch blindly.

I'm happy to vote first tomorrow. I'm just a villager-baker after all. Or maybe I'm a hero and really want the protection.

What do you think about that witches? :P

@myhand - the problem comes if you are a witch. If you are, and we blindly trust and follow you, then the game's pretty much over now. You'll lead us to lynch too many villagers and by the time we uncover you, it'll be too late. I don't think we should lynch you, and we should listen to you, of course, but I don't think we should follow you blindly, yet.



@Little Blue - I think it's a sensible idea to lynch. Lynching is our only hope of killing witches, and besides, what information do you hope to garner if we don't vote? I'm in favour of a lynch; just not too sure who just yet.

Seeing as Dom has been the MC of 4 similar games now, he ought to know his stuff.

If we vote to kill Stupid, and he is a villager, I think we can safely kill myhand.

If both of you (Stupid and myhand) are villagers, then you should really listen to other people rather than constantly advocating your own positions. If you do this, the game will go nowhere, maybe even backwards.

I am not going to vote yet, I still need more information.

@Dom - I hope to verify myhand as a seer, then the information we gain from our seers is 100% guaranteed rather than taking longshots during lynch phase. Most likely, we'll just lynch a villager, and that hurts us.

@John - if we lynch Stupid and he's a villager, we do NOT want to lynch myhand at all! Just 'cos they were arguing doesn't automatically mean at least 1 of them is a witch..


@Blue, I'm not absolutely sure we can verify him. Myhand will have a scrying report too. What if he sees a witch. We'll get a report saying a witch and a seer have been scried? Then what? Also, what if qwed was our only angel? What if the other seer doesn't scry myhand? There are too many variables to guarentee a scrying that we can all trust.


That said, even given the drawbacks and pitfalls, I think it's probably worth the risk. Scrying a seer + a village would all but confirm him, and that would be great news!

EDIT: Messed up.

Edited 12/21/2014 19:14:37

Inactives, at the very least, avoid a multilynch. There is a slim reason to vote Lawlz over me and Stupid, and while it is slim, it is large enough to not lynch an actual decent contributor, and you need to vote one of us to avoid the multi since most people are abstaining.

Don't lynch the talkers without reason! We have a reason to lynch Lawlz. Get him (unless of course you have a better reason). Either discuss or vote.

There is a slim reason to vote Lawlz over me

Yup, vote me. I'm out anyways

Yup, vote me. I'm out anyways

?

No one else had the balls to back Dr. Stupid, but when I do it I become labeled a witch? And now that it's a "reasoning for lynching" I've already figured out I'm dead

You have one vote, relax.

Lawlz your tantrums are why you piss people off. This is the game for gods sake.. Counter our reasoning!

Inactives, you're ruining the game.