The juicy part of the whole event though comes at the Player Stats & Trades Category

Overspent / Underspent is calculating by multiplying the points a player scored by 4.8484, as each point is roughly worth that many nohhams.
so at the end of the day the equation is Adjusted points the player scored x 4.84 - nohhams spent. positive value is underspent. negative value is overspent. units are nohhams.

Performance in nohhams is straight up points x 4.84, while performance in nohhams per slot is that divided by the number of templates the player committed to

The trades that occurred throughout the event are also compared through the performance of the traded player. Trades are logged inthe table "Trade Log". Some maybe unnecessarily specific statistics are in Trades Analytically, but more simplified they are previewed in the bar chart + table in the bottom right.

for example, Trade 1, between Texx and Tackyticall, it has a value of 66.92 nohhams as we speak. Positive means in favoured the later by that many nohhams in performance (points x 4.84). Negative means favoured the first name on the list (manager giving).

Below that there's a more immediate comparison of every player within their tiers


---

Everything takes place in the gsheets besides a calculation for the actual model behind the scenes which is written down very roughly in the tab "expected" of the google sheet. What Ralph initially did but I have come to change multiple values later on with MarkusBM is create a win probability matrix that represents the win ratio of a player from a Tier i vs Tier j as seen in the image



After that, it's more straight forward as I am converting the win probabilities into Elo rating Differences. The equations that matter here are

First one, Di is rating diff between Tier 1 and Tier i, Tier 1 is reference Tier, starting at 0. P1,i is probability that tier 1 beats tier i player. This way For Tier 2 for example, D_2 = 400 x log(0.65 / (1-0.65)) = 107.52 or R_2 = -107.52

Team Rating is sum of the 2 players individual ratings

Expected win probability is the 2nd equation with E_A the aforementioned, Rb-Ra the difference in rating between team a and team b

Expected wins are then the sum of all Expected wins vs each team, across all matchups.

This way for example for MME 2vs2, the teams and Tiers were
| MME 2vs2 | MME 2vs2 | Tiers |
| ---------------- | ------------------ | ----- |
| Zappyelf | master of desaster | 1,6 |
| bliss machine | Octane | 1,5 |
| Xenophon | sb | 1,4 |
| Timinator • apex | Kenny | 1,3 |
| Arsene Wenger | Tac(ky)tical | 2,4 |
| Corn Silver | JK_3 | 2,7 |

which results in these results and ultimately sum of expected wins

Edited 9/22/2024 19:39:31

And congratulations to the goat of ML platinum and all his commodities for sweeping this event. With 9 games left to finish, I'll go over individual templates and all individual performances results at another time

ps: join the discord https://discord.gg/pZx3rrwxdx

Edited 9/22/2024 19:41:45

I was the defective piece that came in the same pack as Corn Silver, but it was "bought as seen", so Beep couldn't return me

Congrats leprechauns! Damn those trades look bad looking back

Pleasure was mine to play and manage. Credit to all involved organising - It has been one of the most enjoyable events in a long time.

Update 7th of October. The event has practically finished (2 leftover tournaments still ongoing but they barely can influence the final outcome)

FINAL STANDINGS

• 1st place: Platinum and his commodities, with 35 wins in 50 games
  
• 2nd place: Tac(ky)tical and his Memes & Dreams
  
• 3rd place: Beep Beep I'm a Jeep and his Consultant Office
  
• 4th place: Kenny - Hawk Tuah
  
• 5th - 6th tied as of now Texx and Motoki (Texx winning the h2h points)
  

The score progression analytically:





Pretty cool progression ngl, Motoki started really strong, then Tacky was basically undefeated and was a clear favourite for some time, but Platinum's double slotters came up and sweeped. The Consultants started awfully but did a miracle 3rd place run definitely not biased towards my team

Edited 10/7/2024 05:03:57

.
TOP x IN SPECIFIC PLAYER STATS IN THE EVENT
---
Total Points

• Corn Silver, 35
• Rufus, 32
• Octane, 28
• master of desaster, Texx, John, Buns157, 24
• Hergul, Aika, 21
  

IPI aka percentage of player contribution to their team's total points

• Corn Silver 43%
• Texx 34%
• master of desaster 33%
• Hergul 28%
• Buns157 27%
• Rufus, Motoki, Aika 24%
• Xenophon 23%
• Octane 22%
  

Contribution to Cost Ratio aka fraction of the players contribution to their team's points divided by the fraction of their nohham cost to manager capacity, tldr = IPI/(Nohhams/400)

• 1. MarkusBM 10.43
• 2. K-Pott 9.83
• 3. Bring * back! ⌛sucks! 5.8
• 4. JK_3 3.58
• 5. Gatsu12 3.48
• 6. criba86 3.42
• 7. John 2.65
• 8. Poldi 2.4
• 9.Texx 2.31
• 10. Edge 2.16
  

RETURN OF INVESTMENT actually adjusted ROI

• 1. MarkusBM 1.8
• 2. K-Pott 1.7
• 3,4. Bring * back! ⌛sucks!, criba86 1
• 5. John 0.77
  

Edited 10/7/2024 05:04:06

.
TOP x IN SPECIFIC PLAYER STATS IN THE EVENT CONTINUATIONNN


MII Market Inefficiency Index equals to [(Nohhams - Expected slot value)/Expected slot value]. More of a metric for ability of the managers to allocate their players strengths appropriately

paired also with EOI Expected overperformance index, [(Points - Expected Points)/Expected Points]

EOI>0 -> overperform, EOI<0 -> underperform (based on Tiers and their assumed expected win probabilities)

MII>0 -> overpaid for the templates they were allocated to (could mean player was overpaid, could mean the manager just didn't assign them in a template that would maximise the player's chances to payout their price) MII<0 underpaid. MII in the range of [-0.5, 0.5] is negligible due to actual points being integers and expected points being real numbers with decimals.

TEXX - THIS! IS!! SPARTEXX!!!

Honestly, despite how harshly Texx's auction skills were judged, he didn't have the worst allocation I've seen. Clearly overpaid for mod, but mod always overperforms. Paid more or less what he should have for the rest and underpaid Kallisti and Gatsu. The majority of his team overperformed, a testament to the spartan spirit (well besides Ralph).

Motoki - MotoKOIN to the MOON

Motoki beat the allegations of finishing last, considering his auction draft was considered by many abysmal, through smart trades, good vibes (that lead to almost everyone overperforming) and let's say above average allocation of resources. He was the only manager that had 2 instead of 3 players double slotting.

Tac(ky)tical - Memes & Dreams

Now things get spicy here. First of all, WxD and TD were overpaid and given rly hard to payout templates but actually overperformed there, so their initial Tier placement is potentially off. Besides those 2, the rest of the crew performed around what was expected from them, with one or two 2v2s being an exception. Allocation-wise, I won't sugarcoat this, the overwhelmingly positive MII values are not good.

Platinum - Lucky Leprechauns

There's 2 funny things to be commented upon here. Firstly, the only one in the entire crew that underperformed was Platinum himself (after stacking 4 vacations). Secondly, LF was absurdly overpaid for the template he was given, yet still paid out his price though Platinum acquired LF from a trade blah blah. The team won ML3 effortlessly with 70% wr, 9/10 slots overperformed, 9/10 slots were allocated appropriately or maybe even in the best way possible. It is suspicious that 7/10 of those slots were acquired through trades after the initial auction though.

Beep Beep I'm a Jeep - Junior Consultants

Actual representation of "there's 2 wolves inside of me". We've got massively overperform, we've got massively underperform, we've got really good allocation and highly questionable allocation at the same time. Absolutely staggering 13w, 27l of the team if you don't count Corn Silver, but Corn Silver beat the Tier 2 allegations and went 10-0.

Kenny - Hawk Tuah

I gotta be biased here, I thought this team would win the event, but it appears that they collectively lacked the motivation to push through it. On paper, the team is top 2. The allocation of their strengths, 9/10, a bit questionable LE 2vs2 sacrifice but Gandalf Poldi proved to be competitive and adaptive.

Edited 10/7/2024 07:16:50

TRADES even if a player has been traded twice i can only comment a trade based on whatever performance they ended up having
------------------------------------------------------------
1. The Betrayal

This! Is! SPARTEXX!!! TRADE WITH Memes and Dreams
Players out:

Aika, awesomeuseername, Bodski, John (218 nohham performace)
Players in:

Bring * back! ⌛sucks!, master of desaster (154 nohham performance)

While this trade does appear to be ridiculously bad at first glance, it's not that far-fetched. You are Texx and you are already planning on having yourself + Ralph/mod double slot, so John's value is a 1vs1 template, and looking at his team's strength that's probably Ursa Lunacy, Strat ME or BIV. So this trade from Texx's pov is a gamble that his clanmate, Kallisti (Bring * back! ⌛sucks) would perform better than John in UL (didn't happen in the end).

From Tacky's pov, this trade is a double edge sword. Yes you get 2 extra players that can fill in 2v2s and potentially even 1v1s, but mod is willing to lead 2v2s, Aika isn't.

As much as John was retraded, I am counting his points in the event when putting this trade into perspective. Tacky could've gained 64 nohhams in performance from this trade. Ultimately though, John was retraded and Aika-mod as well as Kallisti-John performed at the same level, it just so happened that John double slotted.
------------------------------------------------------------
2. The self-sabotage

Memes and Dreams TRADE WITH Lucky Leprechauns


Players out;

Markus, Edge, criba86 (144 nohham performance)
Players in:

Orcinus Orca, Ares (44 nohham performance)

Maybe Tacky could guide us through his motivations and ideas, but at the end of the day, the players tacky traded away scored 20 more points than the players he acquired. Though he actually retraded both Orcus and Ares later on so idk honestly. Regardless, this was a competition losing trade, considering Platinum won the event scoring 28 points more than the 2nd place, Tacky himself.
------------------------------------------------------------
3. The risky investment

Memes and Dreams TRADE WITH MotoGP Fan Club!!!
Players out:

Orcinus Orca, Ares, iljia (44 nohham performance)
Players in:

Rento, dry-clean-only (74 nohham performance)

This trade is such an outlier in every way and form. The issue behind this trade starts with how the auction was ran and the circumstances of Rento's purchase. Motoki bought Rento for 69 nohham for a single slot in round 3 of the auction, having used by the end of that round already half his budget for only 1 Tier 1 player. In the event there were 11 Tier 1 players (10 in the auction + Beep) and almost unanonymously Corn Man as the 12th that was pushed to T2 for reasons i don't know. Team-building wise, for a manager seeing the 12 T1 available players, the easy way to draft a comp is to get 2 of those (cause well 12/6=2). But Motoki overpaid a bit earlier on in the auction and quite literally without knowing surrendered his market capacity for a second tier 1. Besides that, Rento's 69 nohham purchase for a single slot equates to a 5-0 performance. 4-1 amounts to approximately 58 nohham, so even a 4-1 is on paper not what a manager would expect from the nohhams they invested.

And to top that, Motoki goes ahead and trades Rento and dco for the aforementioned 2 that were traded above + ilija. And to top that, he allocates Orcus in the Strategic Greece deathgroup, and on top of that dco ends up double slotting for Tacky. So all in all this trade should've looked horrendously on paper, but somehow Orcus/Ares scored 9 points, while Rento/dco scored 15 points (after adjusting 2v2 contribution). Still a highly questionable trade, but somehow, point-wise, it was the most balanced trade in the entire event.
------------------------------------------------------------
4. The End


Memes and Dreams TRADE WITH Lucky Leprechauns
Players out;

John, Bliss Machine, Ragnar (129 nohham performance)
Players in:

WxD, Truth Dragon (76 nohham performance)

In case you haven't noticed the trend of Platinum fleecing other managers, Platinum gained around 11 extra points from this trade alone, despite WxD and TD being arguably in the top 10 overperforming players of the event.
------------------------------------------------------------
5. The Bomb

Lucky Leprechauns Trades with Hired, Inspired and now Fired
Players out;

Quicksilver, Alexclusive (220 nohham performance)
Players in:

Rufus, Let's Fight (165 nohham performance)

On paper, QS + Alex accounts to 4 slots of consistent T1 players whereas Rufus is 2 slots of Rufus + LF sent as a sacrifice in Strategic Greece. Horrible for Platinum. Amazing for Beep. In reality, putting into perspective the strength of Platinum's squad, he can afford dropping those 4 T1 1vs1 slots to other players and put Rufus in both INSS slots, since his squad lacked an INSS specialist. As much as Junior Consultants gained around 11 points from this trade, this trade accomodated both squad's weaknesses.
------------------------------------------------------------
6. The Blackmail

Lucky Leprechauns TRADE WITH MotoGP Fan Club!!!
Players out:

MarkusBM
Players in:

ilija

We may never know what were the circumstances that led to this blatantly one-sided trade. Was it Platinum gifting Motoki a player so that a certain manager will finish below Motoki? Was it an under the table agreement? Was it a third party blackmail?

Edited 10/7/2024 07:20:48

[placeholder for future results 5]

gg all

beep won :(

Edited 10/6/2024 19:14:36

one of the weirdest purchases I've made, but I'm not against it.

INDIVIDUAL STATS PART 3: ELECTRIC BOOGALOO

POINTS ABOVE EXPECTED - PAE,where the expected points are calculated through the assumed by me win probabilities of the players of each Tier, as the Tiers were decided by a responsible committee of 6 gentlemen. oh and for PAE I'm using adjusted metrics for 2vs2

Top x: Single Template PAE anything above 3 as a single 1vs1 win is 3 points and numbers in the range (-3,3) are prone to error

1. Corn Silver, MME 2vs2, 14.89

2. Octane, Landria Earth 2vs2, 10.99

3. Rufus, Biomes 2vs2, 8.32

4. Corn Silver, Strategic Greece, 7.65

5. John, Timid Lands, 6.6

6. Bring * back! ⌛sucks!, Ursa Lunacy, 6.15

7. Texx, Biomes 2vs2, 6.07

8. master of desaster, MME 2vs2, 5.6

9/10 Truth Dragon, Elitist Africa & John, Ursa Lunacy, 5.25

11. Motoki, Landria Earth 2vs2, 4.67

12. MarkusBM, French Brawl, 4.65

13. Buns157, BIV, 4.5

14. Aika, French Brawl, 4.35

15. dry-clean-only, Landria Earth 2vs2, 4.22

13/14 Edge, BIV & Texx, Elitist Africa, 3.75

15/16 7ate9, Biomes 2vs2 & WxD, Landria Earth 2vs2, 3.11

Top 10, PAE (sum) for both templates for double slotters

1. Corn Silver 22.54

2. John 11.85

3. Octane 11.11

4. Texx 9.82

5. Rufus 9.67

6. master of desaster 7.25

7. Bring * back! ⌛sucks! 6.15

8. Truth Dragon 5.25

9. MarkusBM 4.65

10. Edge/Buns 3.75

------------------------------------------------------------------
POINTS DIFFERENCE FROM AVERAGE - PDA, PAE was basically points - points expected. PDA is points - points the average player would score.. Oh and I am calculating PDA with full contribution, not adjusted points.

The event is comprised of 10 templates of 6 players in each, and if you assume all 2v2s are good player + mediocre player, then suddenly the distribution of tiers amongst the lineups is 22 T1, 17 T2, 11 T3, 5 T4 and 5 T5 players which equate to the average player being at Tier 2.23. I've already assumed a T1 has 0.65 win probability vs T2 and 0.75 win probability vs T3, so with a another assumption and tiny interpolation a T1 has a win probability vs Tier 2.23 equal to {0.65 + 0.25*(0.75-0.65)}. Similar for all Tier win probabilities vs Tier 2.23. From there, slowly but steadily, the win probability of the average player vs each Tier is also calculated.

In agreement to the already assumed hybrid tiers in the top post of this page, I can derive the average tier of player in each template and then, calculate similarly for them their win probabilities. And guess what, then I can put in my model the average player of Tier 2.23 and get their expected points in each of the templates.

Template | Expected Points of the average player of the event
Strategic Greece | 6.9825
Strat ME | 8.8575
French Brawl | 8.1075
Ursa Lunacy | 8.4825
Timid Lands | 7.3575
Elitist Africa | 7.7325
BIV | 7.7325
Biomes 2vs2 | 9.31
Landria 2vs2 | 9.81
MME 2vs2 | 8.11

Top 10: Single Template PDA

1. JK_3, Corn Silver, MME 2vs2, 11.89

2. Rufus, The Forbidden Koalla, Biomes 2vs2, 10.69

3. Octane, Ragnar Lothbrok, Landria Earth 2vs2, 10.19

4. Corn Silver, Strategic Greece, 8.02

5. Buns157, BIV, 7.27

6. Aika, French Brawl, 6.89

7. WxD, dry-clean-only, Landria Earth 2vs2, 6.19

8. Timinator • apex, Strategic Greece, 5.02

9/10 John & master of desaster Timid Lands, 4.64

NEW TIERS, PERFORMANCES AND CONCLUSIONS

Before the auction, a panel of not ralph, not mod, not buns, not alex, not xeno and not octane gathered up in a big round table and had a gentleman discussion on tier placement of all 77 players of the event. The goal, is not to provoke and impose, but rank the players so that later on Ralph and I can model the event while also providing the managers their own opinion on how many nohhams they should be investing.

A logical and straight forward way to tackle new tiers would be of course to enumerate all the performances adjusted per slot and have the highest 10 in Tier 1, next 10 in Tier 2, etc, but that would 1. piss off a lot of people 2. not account for the observed variance in such a small pool of games and 3. completely disregard the initial tier list. As such, I will go through 2 approaches, in both of which I completely ignore the players that were initially ranked but didn't end up playing.

1. The Simplified Version

tldr: approximately 3 worst players of each Tier demote. 3 best players of each tier promote. If performance justifies it, then even by 2 tiers
Tier 1. ↓ Ralph, alexclusive, Beep Beep I'm a Jeep
Tier 2. ↑Corn Silver, Texx, Edge
Tier 2. ↓Arsene Wenger, Beren Erchamion
Tier 3. ↑↑John, ↑criba86
Tier 3. ↓CraZy, Fan, Crimson King, Marcus Aurelius
Tier 4. ↑MarkusBM, Truth Dragon, WxD, Ares
Tier 4. ↓ -
Tier 5. ↑Bring * back! ⌛sucks!, Gatsu12, sloppyfatginger

2. The Principled approach

Upon seeing this statistical shitshow the collective hivemind of Beep, Kallisti and Orcus came up with a bunch of different approaches so as to tackle this. As per Orcus' calculations we can test the hypethesis that the players' win rates are significantly different than the assumed tier win rates. The test is heavily dependent on the accuracy of the initial win probabilities that I cooked up with MarkusBM and Ralph, while it technically requires the games to be independent of each other which isn't always the case, players boot, surrender if the team is finishing last, or have momentum after a win or a good turn.

Alas, p-values indicative of the probability of observing extreme under/over performance are calculated (two-tailed test)


p-values for 1v1s


p-values for 2v2s



--------------------------------------------------------

Results

Statement: Lowkey hard to combine 2v2s with 1v1s here, so I'm running the tests separately. 2v2 Teams are named sloppily, should be obvious to everyone which player corresponds to which team.

We decided to use the 0.1 boundary - 10%, mostly arbitrary choice.

There are 5 1vs1 players that performed statistically different than their expectations:

• Ralph(↓)
  
• John(↑)
  
• alexclusive(↓)
  
• Corn Silver(↑)
  
• Bring * back! ⌛sucks!(↑)
  

There are 5 2vs2 teams that performed statistically different than their expectations:

• Corn Silver & JK_3 (↑)
  
• Crimson King & dry-clean-only (↓)
  
• Ralph & doctor doom (↓)
  
• Timinator • apex & Kenny (↓)
  
• Octane & Ragnar Lothbrok (↑)
  

MVP

Edit: 9th of October

Outright MVP: Corn Silver, only player to finish at 10 wins and 0 defeats, in Strategic Greece and MME 2vs2.

Winning Team MVP: Rufus, scoring 32 points (9 wins and 1 defeat), 2nd best performance in the entire event with a stellar 90% win ratio.

• Honorary 2nd place Octane, scoring 28 points (7 wins, 3 defeats), 3rd best performance in the event, practically a co-manager and advisor to Platinum, also one of the only 2 players that sticked with Platinum throughout his trades.

Bargain of the Season: John, initially placed at Tier3, bought for 31 nohhams, traded twice only to end up at Platinum's squad, double slot, finish at 8 wins - 2 defeats (24 points), (4th best performance in the event tied with Buns157). Most underspent player of the event (final performance of 116 nohhams).


------------------------------------------------------------------

And with that this event is almost over. Theres 2 more ongoing leftover tournaments at the moment that can influence 5th/6th team position. I hope it's been a fun ride for everyone that got to participate. A community event thrives on the active engagement of its participants.

Edited 10/9/2024 00:50:32

Congratulations to corn silver for being the MVP of the event! Contributing a staggering 43% of points to what is already the strongest (and coolest) team is beyond impressive.

Congratulations to Plat, the smartest manager, who beat us without even putting effort. Congrats to his commodities as well!

Congratulations to all players, who made this event fun.

Thanks a lot to all contributing parties, most importantly Ralph and 7ate9, for organizing, nice insights, statistics and just an overall smooth experience! This event was awesome.

It's such a honour to win the MVP prize - thank you to everyone that voted for me, it means a lot.

I want to thank my mum and dad for everything they've done to help make me into the man i am today. I would be amiss to not thank the wanking tier council and plat for putting a big roaring fire of motivation under my ass. And ofc i want to send a thank you to my leader, the only man who believed in me and gave me a safe home - beep. Lastly, my thanks to my partner in crime jk - who saved me from some very embarrassing mistakes.

Love you all, and thanks again!

Edited 10/8/2024 22:01:49

much love :D congrats on mvp to quick