Is it just me or would this result in still giving an advantage to uncapped clans? They just pick their best 25 players that can play that day and they let no one else play before they play. The managers would just accompany that with some punishment for those that disobey. That then increases their odds of winning more games. And a uncapped clan would be easier to manage with picking 25 players for a day rather then inviting and kicking players every day for a capped clan. And it would make it very hard for fizzer to achieve his goal of trying to get more people to play because managers would only let people play after their top players had played.

“First 25 per day” seems like it’s just worse than “Top 25 per season”. It’s fewer games for Fizzer, more hassle for managers, more frustrating for players, plus you have to figure out how to resolve the edge case where 23 have already played and 3 more queue for the final slot.

Just let everyone play and sort it out in post.

Letting everyone play and only count the ones who gets the wins sounds like extremely unfair to capped clans

Capped clans complain about supposed unfairness, and this proposal is to create true real unfairness 😂 doesnt sound like a good plan

suppose one guy gets 10 wins in a row due to pure luck (aka better pick order in se1w or absolute better picks in sead)

this guy will count, and the other 10 who joined the lottery and lost it, and are 0/10 wont count

how is that a solution to the problem? 😂 isnt it adding insult to injury?

Edited 6/19/2024 14:01:51

Let's assume top 25 count at the end of each season. Let's simulate the season. There are 6 clans:
dragons: 25 members, 71% winrate, 87.5% participation rate.
mb: 50 members, 71% winrate, 73% participation rate.
prime: 100 members, 50% winrate, 75% participation rate.
harmony: 200 members, 50% winrate, 75% participation rate.
uberharmony: 400 members, 50% winrate, 75% participation rate.
darklords: 1000 members, 50% winrate, 50% participation rate.

Every season has 20 games. After 10000 seasons, the average score is:
dragons: 310.7599
mb: 302.7792
prime: 255.9778
harmony: 276.801
uberharmony: 294.9036
darklords: 244.0124

dragons won 7032 times, mb won 2610 times, uberharmony won 358 times.

Now let's take a look at different scenario:

mb: 40 members, 71% winrate, 73% participation rate.
prime: 60 members, 50% winrate, 75% participation rate.
harmony: 100 members, 50% winrate, 75% participation rate.
darklords: 2000 members, 50% winrate, 50% participation rate.

Again, 20 games/ season, 10000 seasons.

mb: 292.1782
prime: 237.3717
harmony: 255.8842
darklords: 259.1655

mb won 9976 times, Harmony won 16 times, darklors won 8 times.


Finally:

dragons: 25 members, 75% winrate, 75% participation rate.
mb: 40 members, 70% winrate, 70% participation rate.
harmony: 100 members, 60% winrate, 70% participation rate.
darklords: 400 members, 50% winrate, 70% participation rate. (they actually won 90% of season if they had 1k members)

dragons: 281.2251
mb: 277.9211
harmony: 279.4223
darklords: 281.8087

dragons won 3491 times, mb won 1929 times, Harmony won 1937 times and darklors won 2643


used code:
import numpy as np
import heapq

def sum_of_largest_binomials(N, p, m, n):
# Generate N i.i.d. variables from Bi(p, m) distribution
binomials = np.random.binomial(m, p, N)

# Find the n largest values
largest_values = heapq.nlargest(n, binomials)

# Return the sum of the n largest values
return sum(largest_values)

def repeat_process(M, N, p, m, n):
results = np.zeros(M) # Initialize an array to store the results

for i in range(M):
results = sum_of_largest_binomials(N, p, m, n)

return results
def position_of_highest_number(numbers):
if not numbers:
return None # Return None if the list is empty
max_number = max(numbers)
position = numbers.index(max_number)
return position

def find_largest_elements(arrays):
# Convert the list of arrays to a 2D numpy array
stacked_arrays = np.array(arrays)

# Use numpy's argmax function along the columns to find the indices of the largest elements
indices_of_largest_elements = np.argmax(stacked_arrays, axis=0)

return indices_of_largest_elements
# Example usage:
M = 10000 # Number of times to repeat the process
m = 20 # Number of trials
n = 25 # Number of largest values to sum

dragons = repeat_process(M, 25, 0.75*0.75, m, n)
mb = repeat_process(M, 40, 0.7*0.7, m, n)
prime = repeat_process(M, 60, 0, m, n)
harmony = repeat_process(M, 100, 0.6*0.7, m, n)
uberharmony = repeat_process(M, 400, 0, m, n)
darklords = repeat_process(M, 400, 0.5*0.7, m, n)

print("dragons:", np.mean(dragons))
print("mb:", np.mean(mb))
print("prime:", np.mean(prime))
print("harmony:", np.mean(harmony))
print("uberharmony:", np.mean(uberharmony))
print("darklords:", np.mean(darklords))


indices = find_largest_elements([dragons, mb, prime, harmony, uberharmony, darklords])
print("dragons won", np.count_nonzero(indices == 0))
print("mb won", np.count_nonzero(indices == 1))
print("prime won", np.count_nonzero(indices == 2))
print("Harmony won", np.count_nonzero(indices == 3))
print("uberharmony won", np.count_nonzero(indices == 4))
print("darklors won", np.count_nonzero(indices == 5))

Conclussion:

participation*winrate is the most important parameter in the clan. Bigger clans have an advantage, but not very significant. You are not getting 400 players with 70% participation in one clan, if you design your rewards correctly.

You can prove anything if you just invent numbers. Prime getting 75% participation out of 100 players just isn't going to happen and I suspect the same thing about Harmony out of 200.

First 25 players per day leaves out people in the worst time zones. Not me, 8:00 PM EST is fine but there are others.

Also larger clans can get more wins but he is also talking about nerfing clans with large number of players. It seems he is under this odd belief that there are many members in prime and harmony who are aching to play but have been told they can't, or can't get a slot and for whatever reason can't move to another clan that would welcome them, like anyone out of the top 5. This is of course just wrong a few outliers who complain to him doesn't show any such thing.
So I suspect he is going to nerf clams on the basis of total raw numbers, and not those who actually play clam wars. Which of course will mean those people will don't want to play, or want to play very casually will get the boot to the head. At least in Prime, if you can't play 50% of the time, you just have to wait two days, if he brings in things the way it seems, those people should just be kicked out to keep the number below the threshold.
A lot less good players winning clam wars and more who can figure out how to game the system best.
It will create more clams, but not more clam war viable clams and will rip asunder teams like Harmony where people are brought together for other reasons.


This really needs a serious rethink and consideration and actual listening to people who know how clams work and not done on the basis of a few people with complaints and faulty assumptions that clams are overrunning with people kept out by the 40 player rule. Some sure, but not many, and those are the people who don't sign up till days have passed and again don't consider clam wars important enough to switch to one of the many clams that can't make 40 players.

When I came back after deleting my account, clam wars had already started. So Five Smith arranged with JK of TLA to pimp me out for a season. I got to play, and then come back to Prime. TLA got a few extra wins [sadly not enough to make a difference], I got to meet some chill new cats, and got to shake the rust off before going back to prime. TLA is not a top 5 team but they are a solid 2nd tier team.

If somebody can't get into clam wars, it's because they don't really care that much.

My main point was to show that having lots of clan members isn't a crushing advantage in TOP 25 each season system.

In Harmony, there are some players who join CW for one or two games and then nothing. There are also some players who want to join CW, but know they won't be able to keep up participation high enough.

The new system would mean that we would get ~45 players in a roster instead of ~35 current.

Yes, completely agree with this last post and thank you for providing the quantitative support. Even with extremely aggressive participation assumptions, the best players are going to win CW no matter how you structure it.

I certainly don’t speak for the entirety of MB but CW is most fun when it’s competitive. OP and Python and Masters don’t have 40 players interested in CW. Harmony and Prime don’t have 40 players of the caliber needed to compete at the highest level. But if you change this to 25 players while simultaneously eliminating the political aspects of managing a 40 player roster, CW gets very very interesting.

MB wins CW because of two things: roster management and insanely skilled talent. If you do away with the roster management piece, you isolate the skill piece. This what CW should be all about.

i'd like to suggest that in clan wars
* players in uncapped clans are not eligible to play SE templates. Any number of "strategic" maps may be added
* every slot includes SEAD and/or SE1W, and only players from capped clans can play them

simple measure that would nicely even out the cw playing field.

that's easily the most ridiculous suggestion I've come across in years

Hi, beep boop, I am here to write exactlywhat fizzer said regarding clan wars in the stream

Everything here is an idea, we are brainstorming.

Harmony has 402 members, to me this is a problem cause 362 people are basically not allowed to play cw, to me thats a problem cause cw is designed to be for everyone and i would like to design a system where everyone could play clan wars.

---

02:29:40 I am thinking about designing a system for cw where everyone can play but where the strength of your wins is reduced based on the number of people in the clan, so if you have 80 people, then each win counts for example as half as much. So basically if you are in that situation, if you are in a 40-people clan, theres no change. The numbers are subject to change.

Thinks the target is better at ~25 so it gives players flexibility.

---

02:32:25 If you are a clan that is going for the top spot, then i would say that the position you get in cw should be relative to how good your playerbase is good to cw, not just 40 random people on your clan, but rather the entire base of your clan. i also think there should be a number of reserve people for flexibility. Also a reserve list can be different people every day.

---

What about rewarding the top 25 performers from each clan?
That would be rewarding large clans significantly, not fair to small clans.
I think the better solution is to let anyone play and design a system that prorates it based on the size of the clan, which is fair for everyone regardless of the size.

---

02:36:48 I never want to encourage people to make alts, thats never sth i want to do. Alts shouldn't be necessary. In fact i want to design a system that you are discouraged to make alts and everyone is encouraged to make 1 account.

---

02:38:25 clans not caring about clan wars but being a friend groups: Fizzer response: cw is optional ofc if you dont want to play dont play. but some clans want to optimise that. the top clans spend time and energy to optimise that, so if we make any change, we'll give a lot of time notice. I realise some people are going to be upset that they spent so much time optimising for this system and then the system changes , but the alternative is we never change the system and live with this, which isnt a good solution. so at some point people will have to adapt or we will live with what we have forever.

I have heard from people that want to play clan wars but they have been told by their clans they are not allowed to (sth that everyone in the live stream chat denied but we all know its happening by top clans so they can remain competitive you bunch of filthy liars).

---

02:40 The idea I have is that we have seats, room for people every day, or so reserve seats, where people dont have to play cw, and it wont hurt your rating. lets say you are a clan of 40 people. you have 15 reserve seats, 25 people that can play to maximise your rating. these 15 seats can be 15 different people every day -> flexibility
I want to improve on the no-game situation, impossible to fix completely, cause in a 1v1 game sometimes an odd number of people sign in. there are ways to minimise the number of times that happens, but its har to get rid of it.

---

2:49:10 I do want to design a system that everyone is allowed to play cw. I think its rly dumb that people ar elimited. I also think its dumb that clans rankings aren't a representative sample of clan skill. If you have 400 people, more than 10% should be representing in cw.
Almost every game ive played has a clan cap, I am not aware of any game with unlimited sized clans.

---

chat->CW doesnt represent skill but activity. Fizzer-> I dont think thats true, do you think mbs are first above harmony cause they are more active than harmony? I think if you look all their games they are more skilled, they are not just more active.

02:53: chat-> mbs is a clan of alts Fizzer-> if thats true, then tells me clans are struggling to get 40 people to play every day. the way i view it, if you get 40 players to play every day, then cw is entirely a skill-based competition. if you get less than that, then you are at a disadvantage. if you cant field a full team, you are at a disadvantage. .... I know its hard to get 40 people to play, and thats sth i want to fix, as such the reserve seats and 25 players per day. that should elevate it to be a skill based system, rather than needing all 40 to play every day.

02:55 5smith-> tla has 150 members, 120 active, 34 playing cw. how many would be incentivized to kick, 50? 80? Fizzer-> they should be incentivized to kick the inactive, and then have everyone else play cw, thats what i'd like to see. or not everyone else but minus the reserve. the ideal situation.

fizza such a clueless dude. unbelievable.

I like Fizzer. He wants to ensure that Myth Busters keeps the top spot to hold it for M'Hunters without letting a player spam clan like Optimum take it. Perfect!

Go for it, Fizzer!

Also an extraordinary feet by Myth Busters, to keep the player spam clans in check. You guys rock.

Edited 6/19/2024 20:45:01

Hey Norman I know this can be a little confusing, but this forum is for people who actually play clan wars... actually for those who actually play the game in general. You meet neither criteria..

It's weird OP some how keeps ending up coming out your mouth. Hasn't it been long enough, or you going to keep playing the scorn lover? We moved on, please get over it.


As for the proposal. I like the idea of lower then 40 games "counting" as I feel like it gives more clans a chance to compete. MB wins now because they have 40 rock star players and their bottom 10 are better then anything the other clans can put together, including mine own clan.

I do see a problem with this however. It may lead to more daily micro management, or trying to get the best "25" to play or what ever the number happens to be. This will lead to more resentment and players being told not to play, which is the opposite of what Fizzer wants and what I think most of us want, with the goal of more players playing daily.

I don't see a great solution that makes both a 40 member clan and 150+ member clan happy that doesn't exclude players.

Edited 6/20/2024 11:16:40

Leon, I think that your OP is great. Perhaps our best strategy would be to ask Fizzer if those assumptions are correct.

Fizzer has developed his idea to fix a problem he perceives: there are loads of players trapped in Harmony who want to play CW but are not allowed to do so. It should also remove the dominance that uncapped Clans have in CW.

The truth is somewhat different: it has taken a massive effort over a period of years to get a 40 player roster in Harmony. I understand that other Clans have similar issues. It is simply not true to say that there are players trapped in Harmony who wish to play CW but are prevented from doing so. Harmony's dominance can be described as achieving 2nd place twice in the past 30 seasons as a result of that massive effort (capped Myth Busters won all of those seasons).

If Fizzer wants to drive DAUs, he may be surprised to learn that Harmony players who do not play CW but do other things in the Clan account for a similar number of DAUs as the whole of Clan Wars across all Clans.

Edited 6/20/2024 12:09:31

*capped Myth Busters

I disagree Stone sorry.
Your clan is capable to beat us but you only really tried two times, and also in that seasons your strategy was very poor from my point of view (playing a lot of SEAD and avoiding confrontation with us when u were behind).

Octane, Jack Norris, AJ Chiller, Nickpugs, Jacob, yourself, etc.. can be considered as superstars too, but u guys just dont have the consistency to play daily, thats what we have, not only skills.

Maybe reducing to 25 players will make it more equal, yes.

Edited 6/20/2024 11:51:07

why does every single clan wars proposal thread end up being a verbal conflict of interests, no wonder fizzer pays no attention to you (plural)

I think Fizzer massively underestimates the amount of players who wish to play CW.

Harmony have 315 active players. We got 40-50 players who can play every day. Another 20-30 who would play sporadically. BUT! it wasn’t always like that. A little over a year ago, when we had 200-250 active members, we’d struggle to fill our CW roster in a week or two. We built our roster slowly and painstakingly from scratch by motivating our members to play. It was a HUGE effort!

Just look at TLA, the clan with the 2nd most amount of active members with 113. It’s been 2 weeks and they STILL haven’t fielded 40 players yet!

My solution would be to allow clans to field multiple squads. The 2nd squad wouldn’t really be competitive, but would allow our sporadic fellas to play.

One more thing… Fizzer! The amazing thing about this game is not the Ladders, QM or CW. It’s the community events we create to entertain ourselves. And community events aren’t always inclusive like the MTL, AWP World Tour or Nations Cup. Clan leaders create fun exclusive events for the members of their clan.

Also, a ton of people are in clans for the community. Fizzer, if you spent a few weeks with the socialites of TLA, or the competitive fuelled Optimum, or the Idle fanatics of Prime, or a perfectly balanced mix like Harmony, it’ll change your perspective on clans as you’ll realise that there is more to your game than you understand, and it’s centred around the awesome leaders and figureheads of the top clans.