Advanced Strategy
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So you think you have internalised the Basic Strategies of the game and know your way around? Good. This page will teach you some advanced techniques and help you understand the subleties of game-play.
Picking Territories
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Probabilities
The Analyzer Tool is your best friend. It allows you to estimate if your attacks will fail or succeed and thus can give you a good first risk assessment. You can also use it to calculate the chances for multiple attacks combined, but since it only shows one attack at a time you will have to do some simple calculations yourself.
Example:
You have 10 armies to deploy.
There are 2 bonuses of equal value you could complete, but you only have armies for one of them.
So you want to know the odds.
Bonus 1:
You are missing 3 territories, each occupied by 2 neutrals.
Since you have 10 armies at your disposal, you can attack two neutral territories with 3 armies each, and one with 4 armies. If you hover your mouse cursor over the dots in the upper graph of the Analyzer Tool, it will tell you the odds for each attack.
For a single 3vs2 attack there is a 71% chance of taking the territory.
For a single 4vs2 attack the chance is 93%.
To get the extra bonus armies next turn, all 3 attacks have to succeed, so your combined chances of taking that bonus are:
71% x 71% x 93% = ~47% (or 0.71 x 0.71 x 0.93 = 0.469)
Bonus 2:
You are missing 2 territories, one with 2 neutrals and the other one with 4 neutrals.
Single chance for the 3 vs. 2 attack: 71%
Single chance for the 7 vs. 4 attack: 84%
Combined odds:
71% x 84% = ~60% (or 0.71 x 0.84 = 0.596)
So in this case the odds for completing the 2nd bonus are significantly better than for the 1st one.
Note:
In ladder games the [luck modifier] is lower (16%), so the results look a bit different:
Bonus 1:
0.79 x 0.79 x 1.00 = 0.624 or ~62%
Bonus 2:
0.79 x 0.98 = 0.774 or ~77%
Deployment
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Hiding your income
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Bonuses
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