I miss your reports GE :)

If only Group B's league had these reports :(

Also why is illuminati considered not in the top 2 :S They might be more focused on 1v1's, but they still have the highest max points possible.

@Buns157: Well, in the beginning all teams start with 100% possible win rate and the possibility to take all points and the more the teams play the more their "highest points possible" declines.

Team A: Won 0 out of 10 games.
Team B: Won 50 out of 60 games.

With your highest points possible metric both teams would get ranked equal.

Edited 11/19/2015 18:19:14

@YMBK I know that, but your example doesnt work here. Everyone plays the same amount of games, they have already played a big enough sample size to not be lucky games.

Also the more games you play, if you win them all it doesnt decline ;)

@Buns157 I don't consider max points a valid way of looking at the divisions. Just because a clan can win games doesn't win they will win games. Max points skews results in favour of clans that have completed fewer games and will have fewer losses.

Illuminati and CORP have completed fewer games then M'Hunters and Lu Fredd:
Illuminati and CORP: 40 games
Lu Fredd: 51 games
M'Hunters: 45 games

So its easier for Lu Fredd and M'Hunters to have a lower max points despite having more points and a better win rate because they have finished more games.

So that is why I dump as many info points into the summaries because it is all necessary to see how a clan is doing. Win rate, number of games finished, max points, points completed are all important data points.

Week 5 Summary:





This was a much more modest week for all clans. Illuminati has the most growth (+14 points), followed by Lu Fredd (+12 points) and General Chou's moving up again (+10 points). Everything else was in single digits. Things are much slower now that the focus has moved to 2v2 and 3v3 games.

Lu Fredd maintains their lead in points, followed by M'Hunters and Illuminati rounding out the top 3. But CORP and General Chou's aren't fair behind at all. Lu Fredd has the fewest games remaining out the top 5 clans so the question going into the final stretch is "can they hold their lead?"

M'Hunters and Illuminati, and to a lesser extent CORP, all have the potential to win this division. The win rates for M'Hunters, Illuminati and Lu Fredd at tightly bunched around 64% so any clan can still break away from the pack regarding win rates. Once that happens, that clan should get promoted.

CORP had an off week, finishing few games with the majority being losses. They can still pick themselves up and get back in this fight. Despite General Chou's catching up to CORP's score, CORP only needs to maintain their win rate advantage to hold fourth. If General Chou's wants to move up this division, and it is important they do so now, they need to address their win rate.

Looking at Divisions D1 and D2, it is looking like the non-promoted clans will be distributed:

Division D
2nd D2
3rd D2
2nd D1
3rd D1
4th D1

Division E
4th D2
5th D2
6th D2
7th D2
5th D1
6th D1
7th D1

So General Chou's really doesn't want to be 5th in division D1 as they will just miss the cut off for division D. So while win rates are a good indicator of how the clans will get ranked, the quality of their points are more important. Getting wins in team games can put you over a clan with the same win rate. It may be a bit early to begin predicting the divisions for next season, but I see some trends that should not be ignored.

Edited 11/21/2015 17:07:13

DUUDE, the win% is insanely close for D1. I mean having 50% wins gives you a 5th place. Only 14 % behind 1st spot. And 1st to 4th has less then 4% difference! Only ~7% is the difference between 6th and 7th.

I would like to point out that it is now certain that Hawks will not take 1st or 2nd due to their max points being too low. Sorry guys.

Damn it! :P

Shit's intense yo.

Lu Fredd
14 Games Left 115 Points
Current Performance: 2,21 per game

M’Hunters
21 Games Left 101 Points
Current Performance: 2,24 per game
need 0,875 per game to reach Lu Fredd

Illuminati
24 Games Left 94 Points
Current Performance: 2,24 per game
need 2,1 per game to reach Lu Fredd

CORP
25 Games Left 79 Points
Current Performance: 1,93 per game
need 3,27 per game to reach Lu Fredd

General Chou’s
20 Games Left 78 Points
Current Performance: 1,7 per game
need 6,17 per game to reach Lu Fredd

Dutch Forever
21 Games Left 40 Points
Current Performance: 0,89 per game
need 10,71 per game to reach Lu Fredd

Hawks
15 Games Left 35 Points
Current Performance: 0,69 per game
need 80 per game to reach Lu Fredd

with that info i created that Ranking:

1 M’Hunters ( 0,875 : 2,24 = 0,39 )
2 Illuminati ( 2,1 : 2,24 = 0,938 )
3 Lu Fredd ( 2,21 : 2,21 = 1 )
4 CORP ( 3,27 : 1,93 = 1,694 )
5 General Chou’s ( 6,17 : 1,7 = 3,63 )
6 Dutch Forever ( 10,71 : 0,89 = 12,03 )
7 Hawks ( 80 : 0,69 = 115,94 )

i think it shows good how the Clans stand to each other.

@MrLegi, its not so accurate
Cause some games not equal to others, cause of different opponents, wastelands, lucks, etc

Please do Division C Next year! These reports are amazing..

^ agreed, these reports ARE amazing! :D

Thanks G.E.!

well, those mentioned by KKND would only be inaccuracies... the math on Mr.Legi's post is just completely wrong lol

need 0,875 per game to reach Lu Fredd

(M'Hunters) should be 2 points per game to reach Lu Fredd, even if you choose to ignore the fact that all clans still have more games to play

Edited 11/22/2015 15:59:29

Lu Fredd
14 Games Left 115 Points
Current Performance: 2,21 per game
Projection: 145,95

M’Hunters
21 Games Left 101 Points
Current Performance: 2,24 per game
need 2,14 per game to reach Lu Fredd

Illuminati
24 Games Left 94 Points
Current Performance: 2,24 per game
need 2,16 per game to reach Lu Fredd

CORP
25 Games Left 79 Points
Current Performance: 1,93 per game
need 2,68 per game to reach Lu Fredd

General Chou’s
20 Games Left 78 Points
Current Performance: 1,7 per game
need 3,4 per game to reach Lu Fredd

Dutch Forever
21 Games Left 40 Points
Current Performance: 0,89 per game
need 5,04 per game to reach Lu Fredd

Hawks
15 Games Left 35 Points
Current Performance: 0,69 per game
need 7,4 per game to reach Lu Fredd

with that info i created that Ranking:

1 M’Hunters ( 2,14 : 2,24 = 0,95 )
2 Illuminati ( 2,16 : 2,24 = 0,96 )
3 Lu Fredd ( 2,21 : 2,21 = 1 )
4 CORP ( 2,68 : 1,93 = 1,58 )
5 General Chou’s ( 3,4 : 1,7 = 2 )
6 Dutch Forever ( 5,04 > 5 )
7 Hawks ( 7,4 > 5 )



Assuming Mr.Legi collected the data properly, I made the calculations.

At first glance it appears clear that, if LuFredd maintains its trend, it's impossible for Dutch Forever and Hawks to reach first place as they would need to make more than 5 points per game.

GE will only do division C next time, if Illuminati get into division C. Still a decent probability of that happening, considering their max points! ;)

Update:


M'Hunters and Illuminati are now tied in points with both eyeing Lu Fredd in 1st place.

Illuminati is running 4th in 1v1 points, (18-14), 4th in 2v2, (5-0) and 1st in 3v3, (6-1). The irony of those results is not lost on me...

General Chou's passed CORP in points though CORP still has the better win rate. But the win rate between the two has shrunk to little more then 8% now.

How in the heck can someone be fourth place with a perfect 5-0 score? This whole D1 season is madness