Week 2 Summary:

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The second week has wrapped up with some clans moving up and down in the rankings but there is still much more to come this season.



And here are the clans ranked by total points:



Just looking at the rankings for the week, Hydra, CORP and BIA were the only clans to move. This was caused by Hydra having a significantly better Week 2 then Week 1. Hydra outgrew BIA and CORP stalled completely in Week 2, #CORProblems. (As an aside, I'm not saying that in a mean way, I like the way CORProblems looks and its a simply way to sum up the start to the season for CORP). Hydra's upward movement is great, but that shouldn't diminish the awesome week VS and M'Hunters have had both growing signiciantly in the amount of points. Overall, M'Hunters have stretched to a more significant lead over VS in total points, as well due to fewer losses M'Hunters are continuing to demonstrate why its likely they will come in first this season.

Note: Each clan will be introduced with a weekly win-loss record, it is not their overall record.

M'Hunters (7-1) powered forward this week and are now strongly positioned to finish 1st and are in a position to win or tied to win most 1v1 tournaments (French Brawl and Guiroma not included). At this point its a question of how many tournament wins other clans can get since M'Hunters should win maybe a majority of 1v1 tournaments. Overall, M'Hunters has shown no sign of slowly down this season, unlike Season 7, as many strong templates for them have yet to finish games.

In the Horse Race VS (6-3) seem to be doing well and are within striking distance of M'Hunters but digging into their other stats you begin to see why that may be a struggle. This seems less to do with VS's performace than M'Hunters. M'Hunters is just powering forward faster then anyone else meaning catching them requires M'Hunters to stumble. VS is a strong clan overall, but could it be argued that the team templates are where VS should do better? I am legitimately asking, I want people's opinions below.



Onto Hydra (10-4) now, they grew the most this week. While the clan has improved significantly from week 1, their overall record of 13-10 just shows that the clan is losing games and seems to lack a certain "something" to directly challenge for promotion. If you look at the Point Growth chart, you will see that no clans have won a game in a couple days, but Hydra over the course of the week was probably the most consistent with winning games (as I am predicted a comment about this, yes M'Hunters had very consistent growth as well). As if you look later in this post, their win rate consistently improved each day this week. To sum up Hydra this week, they aren't quite the basket case they were in Week 1, but problems still lurk in their lineup.

BIA (5-5) had an average week. With an even record, and Hydra completing more games it would have been very difficult to hold onto their position. BIA started stronger then Hydra and with one good week, Hydra and BIA are quite practically tied. Max points are 170 to 171, win rates are approx 1% apart. The only reason Hydra is ahead in total points is Hydra has completed 23 games to BIA's 20 games. So with Hydra further along in games played, the focus will be whether BIA finishes enough games to retake 3rd place this week.



#CORProblems worsen significantly in Week 2 with a shocking (0-8) record across all templates, and 5 more boot losses in Week 2. The clan had boots on ME SR and Treasure Map Week 1 but it now has shifted to Greece and Treasure Map. Between 3 players, there have been 9 boot losses recorded for CORP: 2 for Quicksand, 3 for BigMeck and 4 for Angry Koala. This issue is strangling CORP, the clan which should be in a competitive race with Hydra, and BIA as it turns out, is in fact in a distant 5th place barely ahead of LEA. And Week 3 can see even more pain, BigMeck has one game left on Greece, Angry Koala one more on Treasure Map, Angry Koala was booted on picks in 2 Great Lakes games which probably means the team is struggling there as well. What this means is CORP is going to start this tournament under a cloud of boots and until they are done, the clan will continue to look weak when they really aren't. If you remove the boots, the clan is at an average (5-5) record. While some of those boot losses could be wins and some losses, the clan almost definitely would be higher then their current (5-14). But what about LEA nearing CORP? More on that in the next paragraph.

LEA (2-7) is probably going relegate despite CORP's results so far. LEA has shown little ability to win games. And their inability to win games means long term I see CORP beating out LEA. I think most would agree that despite the boots CORP has, they can win more games. Its the boots that are dragging CORP down towards LEA, not LEA's skill narrowing the gap with CORP. Which wins out will be interesting. But this isn't about a clan's skill. A win is a win and LEA has narrowed the gap on CORP and CORP needs to seriously fight for every single point it can get from here on out.

Overall, it was a happy week (I can't be that unbiased about Hydra right now) for some including Hydra and M'Hunters, good for VS, average for BIA, a glimmer of hope for LEA and simply steeling yourself that long term your plan should win out for CORP.

Edited 6/29/2016 21:14:19

Note: I am aware of a BIA 2v2 win, it isn't in the Week 2 update.

Great Update GE. You make it sound so tense. Props to Hydra for the comeback. Now they are just 2 points away from a promotion spot.

Edited 6/29/2016 21:16:42

who will promote? rank 1 and 2 or only rank 1?

2 promote, 2 relegate

(though since there is 1 clan less only 1 relegates)

OK, thanks

Very nice comeback by Hydra! This is starting to look like what I had in mind... Except with BIA and CORP swapped over.

could be going so much better ;_;

Live by the HHH, die by the HHH.

^ not even close. way more points going to be lost from Koala than HHH.

My thoughts so far on the Division C,

Hydra, Perhaps not the favourite to finish to the top 2 but IMO the more structured clan to make a go at promotion than CORP. I think they are doing relatively good on the 1v1s (12-10) and are already making a positive start the team games. (1-0) , Really Hydra need to make a positive finish in atleast 4/6 in there 1v1 tournaments to keep in contention and in touch with the powerhouses VS + M'Hunters. I think team games they really need to punch over there weight there. I think personally Hydra need a very strong finish to the 1v1s because in this division with CORP + LEA + BIA nowhere near to VS + M'Hunters really every game is about keeping in touch with the two contenders. Can they do it? Really depends how good there team games actually are and how they finish the 1v1s.

BIA, A clan viewed as a certain 5th place. I don't think so not 100% I think this clan can really make a go at finishing at a very respectable 4th in this division. The hard work to ensure safety in this division will be done in the 1v1s because they do have a decent 1v1 line-up (11-8) I think that performance in the 1v1s with a few wins in the team games will be able to surpass LEA to be honest. Really the question is how good there team line-up are.. I don't get a good vibe especially for the 3v3s realistically 5th is most likely the case though if they can get a average team-game performance in they can really challenge for 4th but the 1v1s alone can't do this alone. Can they push on from whatever platform they make from the 1v1s? 3v3s probably not but 2v2s could bring problems for clans.

CORP, A very very very poor start in the 1v1s for CORP and there can't be any excuses for boots I think if you really want to go and win a tournament and take clan league seriously you don't get booted. Sadly Quicksand (no surprise) and Angry Koala did and it has made CORPs slim promotion hopes gone tits up and has actually In my mind posed a question of can BIA take an advantage of this and push for 4th.. In the 1v1s I viewed CORP strong but in the team games very vulnerable. I don't think the team games will aid them in the cause and I think the question is can CORP get there act together and manage a fair finish on the 1v1s and not lose too much ground on BIA and actually challenge for 3rd from Hydra a (5-13) record there is damage to be repaired I think an active leadership such as CORP will get there act together and progress forward though this damage is really a blow and puts away the promotion hopes CORP had. Depending how they finish is how good there team games are because they have good heart. I can see them giving Hydra a fight for 3rd but could easily be caught in a dog fight with BIA if they pose as a surprise threat in the team games.

LEA, A (4-17) start is just not what LEA wanted for a miracle campaign to potentially stay up perhaps over-riding BIA. I think the clan has never recovered from the whole ACME split I think this will give the clan a fresh look at there strategic level, I think whatever results happen they should be proud of themselves to put out a new line-up even though all the departures the clan had to suffer. I think they are at a re-building stage and I wish them the best. I think it's not looking great for them and are going closer to the relegation drop, The 1v1s are going too poor and the team games are not good enough to claw back whatever deficit that comes.

VS, The quiet lions. Good clan! I think there off to a very confident start (13-7) I think in the 1v1s they are very strong and really the hard work is going to give them a very good start to there campaign for promotion. The team games will really tell how good VS will finish, I think the clan will finish 1-3 , If they are average you could see a Hydra threat coming, If they really want to win this division they need to perform very well in the team games as I see them coming short in the 1v1s against M'Hunters who are favourites in my eyes to finish #1. This will really test VS and tell us really how good the clan are!

M'Hunters the definite favourites to win the division as much as I love Norman and all there adorable members <3 they do have a bit too much class for the division and should go to B, A (16-5) has already put them on the front foot. Super Smoove a #1 3v3 ladder player and who is simply obsessed with the EU template is really going to aid them hugely. So, With a very strong 1v1 finish looking to happen atm and with some really top players in the team games, I think they really should push and look for #1 to win the division what will test them is VS and the problem with M'Hunters has been consistency but I think the clan has really decided to take the division seriously and credit to them for finally doing it as they are really good players. So It's really a test of consistency if they can win the division and VS will be the perfect test. Can they be consistent? So far yes lets see how this unfolds ;)

Edited 6/29/2016 23:42:43

At least our division isn't Division B-oring

hey! Platinum!!!

How dare you tread upon G.E.'s sacred territory without offering up even ONE beautiful graph?!?!?!? e_@


...

Ok I'm kidding XD

I'd be curious to see other people's predictions too. If we are going to bea out division D for the larger amount of activity, we will need to work harder if we don't spam posts D:

Division D is gonna win, they have twice the number posts and I doubt we can catch them :(

ResultSet-EloRating-Prediction>  simulate ;This runs 100000 random simulations of the tournament
Rank Player name     Points EPoints  StdDev   ERank    1  2  3  4  5  6
   1 Aldehyde           0.0    8.73    1.22    1.44   62 32  5  0  0  0
   2 Hunta              0.0    5.90    1.45    3.03    1 29 42 24  5  0
   3 ThanatosDVen       0.0    5.42    1.49    3.36    1 16 39 34 10  0
   4 PrivatePabse       0.0    4.10    3.63    3.97   18 11  7 13 19 31
   5 Botanator          0.0    4.08    3.62    3.98   18 11  7 13 19 31
   6 CaptainTrips       0.0    1.77    1.31    5.21    0  0  0 16 46 37

Bayeselo prediction of https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19335 ,
based on 1v1 ladder. NOTE, Botanator and PrivatePabse is treated as unknow since they are not on the ladder. So the results here may be wrong. ALSO, this assumes a normal RR aka 2 games between each player.

The numbers under the 1,2,3 etc. is the % chance of the player ending up there. So this gives Aldehyde a 62% of winning.

also,

readpgn http://data.warlight.net/Data/BayeseloLog0.txt
elo
 mm
 prediction
  rounds 1 ;This indicates that each player plays 2 games, 1 with each color.
  results
   addplayer Aldehyde ;817
   addplayer Botanator
   addplayer CaptainTrips ;808
   addplayer Hunta ;64
   addplayer PrivatePabse
   addplayer ThanatosDVen ;267
  x
  players ;Displays the list of players
  simulate ;This runs 100000 random simulations of the tournament
  x
 x
x 

is simply run using Bayeselo.exe in case anyone is intrested

Edited 6/30/2016 19:30:28

"Division D is gonna win, they have twice the number posts and I doubt we can catch them :("

They have 2 scorekeepers. So divide their post by 2. IMH, it is only fair :p

Edited 6/30/2016 19:31:27

lmao TBest

Also, what program are you using for that code stuff? o.o

Never really got into that stuff xD

Looks like CORP's bad week just got worse: https://www.warlight.net/Clans/?ID=60

Unknown at this point, but Prabster Realm was reportedly the last account in the clan. If it was Prab, it likely was someone other than Prab controlling the account since this is way out of character.

lmao TBest

Also, what program are you using for that code stuff? o.o

Never really got into that stuff xD

I am not programming or coding anything. I am simply using CMD, the 'Run' command, and Bayeselo.exe (same as the ladder) which can be dowloanded from here http://www.remi-coulom.fr/Bayesian-Elo/ .