Games Left and Played:

---

1v1            Games Left  Games Played
ME SR               2           13
Guiroma             5           10
Greece              1           14
Battle Islands      1           14
French Brawl        5           10
Treasure Map        0           15

Games Left: 15.56%
Games Played: 84.44%

2v2            Games Left  Games Played
Final Earth         10          5
China               13          2
Strat ME            10          5

Games Left: 73.33%
Games Played: 26.67%

3v3            Games Left  Games Played
EU                  11          4
Great Lakes         13          2

Games Left: 80%
Games Played 20%

Edited 7/6/2016 18:54:59

@Tabby:

I just looked over the only finished 3v3 Europe game in divion D.
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=11410929

As the game finished I cound 87: 23 income so the game proooooobably was effectively over a couple turns before. Let me take a look at when the game was truly finished.... hm... yep, already after turn 2 I immediately see that the Olympus clan should have pressed the surrender button.

Apparently the surrender condition for most teams isn't to get into a position where they can't win any longer but each and every teammate needs his income broken.

Minor note - @ G.E. - is it possible for you to lighten the color for the second (and potentially third) bars for Hydra's bar in the chart? Right now it looks to be about the same colour as the first bit.

Also, guys, lets get some discussion in here! (So we don't rely on Knyte to carry us ahead of Division D!)

Do you guys think any of the clans will perform significantly better/worse in either team format than their 1v1 sections?

Are any clans particularly good at specific team templates?

@Norman: Also noticing that in other Division D games. I have to check for boots, which is a bit harder in team games with AI enabled, and have found a few games where one teammate surrendered 5+ turns before the other.

Stalling isn't really a thing in Clan League since it's not a ladder and you don't get any extra points out of delaying your losses, so I'm guessing this is either happening due to the pressure or so that clans have time to figure things out and regroup before their next match. Or just poor organization and people having no idea what's going on.

@knyte Some players will stall out of spite of their opponent or the clan they represent. You assume that humans are rational beings.

Also, guys, lets get some discussion in here! (So we don't rely on Knyte to carry us ahead of Division D!)

Thanks for reminding me, I was planning on removing all that spam. Regardless of who you are, you don't spam.

It'd be nice if you could do the same in the Division D thread.

I think M'Hunters has definitely solidified a promotion spot. But with so few team games finished it's still very possible for another clan (obviously Hydra for completely unbiased reasons) to catch VS.

On the flip side if VS does really well they could end up #1, with M'Hunters #2 (I don't see any non-VS clan passing them).

And Knyte feel free to keep adding your contributions here too. I really liked your graphs you posted here or in C and we are missing some if you find time for us :).

^
Why did you took Oulu in first turn? It didn't lead you to anything but losing an army.

Didn't analyze anything else.

@Norman Would you please explain why https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=11192427 was a lost game for me? Well this is RPCL2 but please explain..thanks!

Meow!

Hello Tabby

I guess you had some discussions about why you lost since you are asking me now. This wasn't a clear right out of the bat loss but a couple of problematic stuff finally lead to your defeat.

- Luna {TJC} failed to win against his opponent in the islands. Turn 1 he attacked first order and thus lost more armies than his opponent. Turn 2 he should have taken his bonus. He was the guy who was supposed to grow strongest. Also this deploying 4 in Ireland and 1 in Benelux didn't make any sense at all. If he had taken his bonus turn two and without to shabby play in the following turns this should have been enough to transfer this game into a victory. Apart from some moving around in Russia you see, that Luna {TJC} only fought against GeneralPE up until turn 7. He managed to lose despite GeneralPE having the worse position after picks and GeneralPE eliminating Tabby from Finland.

- If DR.Love had just deployed full into Russia first turn (and perhaps a 1 army tap to his opponent) and focused there the following turns, you also would have won the game. Alternatively Tabby Juggernaught could have moved into position in Russia. If you had cleared the center of also Quetz the game would have played out differently. However Dr. Love's position in Russia was really good, this one pick took out 3 opponents picks in this area.

- As for you, you shouldn't have moved in Finland first turn. You were the small income guy and couldn't do the main fight in the center + Russia.

Ranked by Points Behind:

Rank          Clan          Points Behind
1st           M'H           -
2nd           VS            12
3rd           BIA           29
4th           Hydra         29.5
5th           CORP          44
6th           LEA           72.5

For Points Behind I just used a variation of the standard Games Behind formula:

((Leader Points Won - Clan Points Won) + (Clan Points Lost - Leader Points Lost)) / 2

Edited 7/7/2016 07:14:09

Those Points Behind confirms that results in group C are pretty much settled. MH and VS are not only way ahead, but were also seen as stronger before CL8 started. The opposite can be said on LEA. Does anyone know how stable a trend like this was in previous clan leagues?

Edited 7/7/2016 08:40:28

Points Behind does tend to break down, however, when there's a significant disparity in points contested. For example, a 60-51 team (.541 win rate) is only 0.5 games behind a 10-0 team. You can see it in other divisions with much larger disparities- Blitz (Div B) is near the bottom by Points Behind when it's at the very top by success rate (it's just only contested about 20 points while everyone else is way ahead).

So the meaning of the comparison changes a bit. If Team A and Team B have played about the same number of games (in a league where there's a consistent set number of games at the end of the season) and neither of them is ahead or behind, that means they'll end up at the same spot if they just match each other's pace. If Team B is 5 games behind, that means- in order to catch up to Team A- it needs to not only match pace but also flip 5 losses into wins on top of that (or sweep Team A in a 5-game series; basically you need 5 "extra" wins from B and 5 "extra" wins from A).

To model this a bit further (assuming an 82 game season in loving memory of Kevin Durant's sense of pride); Needed to Catch Up assumes that Team A plays the rest of the season at a .500 win rate and reflects the record Team B needs in its remaining games to finish with the same overall record

Team A Initial     Team B Initial     Games Behind    Needed to Catch Up
20-20              20-20              0               21-21
20-20              19-21              1               22-20
20-20              10-30              10              31-11
25-15              20-20              5               26-16

Now let's shake things up a bit and assume that Team A performs at 30/42 after these initial games

Team A Initial     Team B Initial     Games Behind    Needed to Catch Up
20-20              20-20              0               30-12
20-20              19-21              1               31-11
20-20              10-30              10              40-2
25-15              20-20              5               35-7

So it's pretty simple here to see what Games Behind means when calculated at the stage where both teams have the same number of finished games- "In order for Team B to catch up to Team A, they need to not only match Team A's record in all following games but also flip (Games Behind) Team A losses into Team B wins"- if you're 1 Game Behind, 30-12 has to become 31-11 (12 - 1 => 30 + 1); 10 games behind it becomes 40-2 (12 - 10 => 30 + 10).

But now let's see how it works out when there's a difference in games played (going back to .500 expectation):

Team A Initial     Team B Initial     Games Behind    Needed to Catch Up
22-20              20-18              0               22-22
22-20              20-20              1               22-20
22-20              19-21              2               23-19
22-20              10-30              11              32-10
22-20              0-30               21              42-0
30-20              20-20              5               26-16
30-20              20-10              0               26-26
41-41              10-10              0               31-31
41-41              10-0               -5              31-41

And now with .750 expectation:

Team A Initial     Team B Initial     Games Behind    Needed to Catch Up
22-20              20-18              0               32-12
22-20              20-20              1               32-10
22-20              19-21              2               33-9
22-20              10-30              11              42-0
22-20              0-30               21              gg no re
30-20              20-20              5               34-8
30-20              20-10              0               34-18
41-41              10-10              0               31-31
41-41              10-0               -5              31-41

You'll notice that there's not a clean transition in terms of the win rate needed to catch up. Looking at just the top entries in these last two, the switch from .5 to .75 for A makes for a switch from .5 to .727 for B (which would be even less pronounced had there been a greater difference). Notice that .727 = (4 * .5 + 40 * .75) / 44. In other words, the win rate Team B (with 0 games behind) needs to maintain to compete with Team A is actually a weighted average- (# of extra games A has contested relative to B) * (.5) + (# of remaining games for A) * (A's win rate). You do all the loss-to-win flipping (which still works here, as you can see above) after that.

This is a pretty simple phenomenon- game difference doesn't compare teams based on win rate but rather based on (wins - losses); I could actually just redo this analysis as a ranking by (wins - losses) since that's essentially the same thing. This is why a 40-30 team isn't "behind" a 10-0 team or a 20-10 team; as far as the games behind stat is considered, these teams are identical. But that also means a 45-35 team is just as good as an undefeated 10-0 team by this stat, and a 2450-2430 team is superior.

I could perhaps resolve this issue by instead considering the success rate a clan would have to maintain to "catch up" to the clan that's currently contested the most points, but that would still give a 10-0 team the same rank as a 40-30 team in certain cases.

Edited 7/7/2016 10:18:56

Haa I finally know what "gb" stands for in nba standings :-) (I knew what it was about).

lol NBA and MLB get way too stat-heavy and I hate how the discussion on stats is kind of a flavor-of-the-month deal; one playoff series you talk about +/-, another one it's OffRtg or DefRtg, and then after a while we just get tired and go back to points or (if we're feeling fancy) shot charts.

Edited 7/8/2016 23:33:02

This is why D has more comments. We have no topic to talk about. They can talk about their games thanks to daily updates.

Ok, CORP is now officially getting destroyed. {*}

Edited 7/9/2016 19:32:46

@Chromeo, what do you want to talk about? I fail to see how me not updating everyone with daily updates is stifling conversation. And to that, after I post often there is a long delay before anyone says anything, and even then no one talks about stuff much. So, if you want more discussion, tell me what you want to talk about so I can facilitate stuff.

Add to all of this, I'm on vacation right now so my interest in updating this thread is very low.