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a humble theory: 2016-12-10 22:40:14


Wally Balls 
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Wally, deal with it: there is no proof.


I never said there is any scientific method compliant proof. My pointing out a series of strong correlations is not my attempt at scientific method compliant proof of anything nor claiming I have scientific method compliant proof of anything.

you yourself are blabbering about correlation while making causal statements.


I never made any causal statements. I'm well aware of the fact that correlation isn't scientific method compliant proof. What you're seemingly unaware of is that a lack of scientific method compliant proof of something does not prove it wrong nor prove it's opposite.

I have no scientific method compliant proof that you are a human. Just a series of strong correlations. Does that mean you are not a human?

Edited 12/10/2016 23:04:26
a humble theory: 2016-12-10 22:42:59


Wally Balls 
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*7/7

Edited 12/10/2016 22:51:16
a humble theory: 2016-12-10 22:59:04


Belgian Gentleman
Level 57
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7/8 if Wally Balls were included

Edited 12/10/2016 22:59:40
a humble theory: 2016-12-10 23:00:44


Wally Balls 
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i am not a trump supporter
a humble theory: 2016-12-10 23:01:35


Belgian Gentleman
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I know that's why it isn't 8/8
a humble theory: 2016-12-10 23:33:30


Swisster 
Level 64
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So just so I am clear to what you are saying; a persons high ability to problem solve and learn (IQ) will absolulty lead to an education?
a humble theory: 2016-12-10 23:38:20


Math Wolf 
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Wally, deal with it: there is no proof.

I never said there is any scientific method compliant proof. My pointing out a series of strong correlations is not my attempt at scientific method compliant proof of anything nor claiming I have scientific method compliant proof of anything.
you yourself are blabbering about correlation while making causal statements.


I never made any causal statements. I'm well aware of the fact that correlation isn't scientific method compliant proof. What you're seemingly unaware of is that a lack of scientific method compliant proof of something does not prove it wrong nor prove it's opposite.

I have no scientific method compliant proof that you are a human. Just a series of strong correlations. Does that mean you are not a human?

I actually agree with your first point and I'll even give you that you are correct that you didn't make any causal statements in this topic. If you want to keep arguing about this point though, I'd gladly dig up some statements from previous topics.

You may want to think the rest of your statements through though. Do you really think that of all people I don't understand that "lack of scientific method compliant proof of something does not prove it wrong nor prove it's opposite."
To quote from my original post: "While what you say may be true, there is absolutely and utterly no proof for it". I'm teaching this kind of material and more advanced versions to both undergrad students and grad students about ten to fifteen hours each week, you may want to think about that before assuming that I don't know what I'm talking about or don't understand a basic statistical concept.
Note that I also said that such proof won't be there for years. I do believe, that if your statements are true, then extensive mediation models may (and should) be able to actually quantify it given a large enough dataset of sufficient quality. But such research takes time. And you'd do well to wonder how come that I know that this kind of research takes time.
a humble theory: 2016-12-10 23:41:23


Wally Balls 
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"While what you say may be true, there is absolutely and utterly no proof for it".


We agree.

You're yet another of those people who know I'm right but want to come in and argue with me anyway because you don't like the way that I communicate that I'm right. I don't care if you don't like the cut of my jib so long as we agree that I'm right. And we do.
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 01:13:09


Math Wolf 
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"may be true"

My whole point is about that it is not known. It could be correct, it could be wrong. You believe it is correct, while I say that it's too early to conclude anything.

Early evidence seems to support your claim. However, early evidence also predicted a Clinton win. Limited data could be fool's gold. It may be that Trump supporters actually had a higher IQ. How could this be, given that Clinton won the more educated voters one might ask?

As an example, what happens to this interpretation if we add age as an additional confounder? It may turn out that more intelligent older voters chose Trump, while less intelligent older voters chose Clinton (and there are actually some indications that this is the case!) However, older people also tend to be a lot less educated than younger people, so the more intelligent older people who voted for Trump in this hypothetical example, wouldn't show up when we only consider education. Now, on top of age, we could also add rural voters versus urban voters. Urban voters are more educated and went more for Clinton while rural voters are less educated and went more for Trump. Yet, it may be that the more intelligent rural voters (who aren't very educated either) went more for Trump while the less than averagely intelligent urban voters (who are still largely educated) went for Clinton. Again, you'd get a result where educated voters split for Clinton while intelligent voters actually split for Trump.

What should this teach us (and I mean everyone, not just you): it means that at this point we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg. Demographics are incredibly complicated, polls are flawed and data incomplete. On top of that, the statistical models that are able to properly capture these trends are way too often ignored for easier, biased comparisons. The result is that the real association is very difficult to find, let alone prove. Sadly enough the field of statistics, when used well, is especially very good at telling people why claims CANNOT be made.

That doesn't mean you are wrong of course, it simply means that we'll have to wait at least a few months, but most likely many years before we can conclude that you were right, or wrong.

And the only reason why I put in the effort to post these kind of things, is because you (ab)use my field of study to make claims while waiving an air of knowledge around you. I don't bother to respond to most of the pro-Trump posts here because they are mostly just parroting stuff and not making claims using proper statistical or scientific language.
At the same time, I feel that you may actually have the capability of understanding these concepts and that makes it extra sad that you abuse them.

Edited 12/11/2016 01:13:26
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 01:31:29


Lordi
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Wally's method: count all cases pointing into the right direction and ignore the rest. Let's just agree to 100/100 and save him the trouble.
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 01:59:28


Wally Balls 
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@Math Wolf, I'm not abusing anything. I just don't require scientific proof that somebody farted to say somebody farted when it smells like somebody farted. Might that smell have come from something else? Sure, it's possible. But this is an internet forum, not a peer reviewed journal. Scientific proof is not a requirement to state something you believe to be true.

I believe it to be true that intelligence and Warlight skill are positively correlated.

I believe it to be true that intelligence and Trump support are negatively correlated.

No, I do not have proof of either of those that would satisfy the requirements of a peer reviewed journal. But that doesn't make me wrong.

Edited 12/11/2016 02:00:06
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 02:05:44


Wally Balls 
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Wally's method: count all cases pointing into the right direction and ignore the rest.


i wouldn't be pressing the correlation/causation issue so hard if that were the case. i'm sure there will be at least one Trump supporter who is good at Warlight and i'm expecting them to turn up eventually. they wont disprove my theory.
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 02:32:40


Жұқтыру
Level 56
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you've no theory here, all you're making is guesses upheld by streteching infos.

Theories are actually upheld by testing and proofs.

Edited 12/11/2016 02:32:55
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 02:35:09


Lordi
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What is a good player? We wouldn't want to tempt you into moving the goalpost after you meet one, would we?
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 03:36:10


Belgian Gentleman
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Goodnight everybody!

Edited 12/11/2016 03:38:17
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 04:16:56


Benjamin628 
Level 60
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I believe it to be true that intelligence and Warlight skill are positively correlated.

I believe it to be true that intelligence and Trump support are negatively correlated.

No, I do not have proof of either of those that would satisfy the requirements of a peer reviewed journal.


Belief doesn't make anything true.

But that doesn't make me wrong.

Yeah, but it sure doesn't make you right.
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 04:22:17


FDR
Level 47
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If there is a correlation between WarLight skill and intelligence, I'm the bottom of the barrel. However, I've also taken IQ tests before though and gotten the lowest 121 and highest 133

Edited 12/11/2016 04:28:32
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 04:33:47


Wally Balls 
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What is a good player?


it's much easier to identify a bad player. players like you are hard to tell. can't really call you bad or good, need more data.

so we have 7/7 and 1 unknown.
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 04:41:49


Wally Balls 
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Belief doesn't make anything true.

Yeah, but it sure doesn't make you right.


First is a strawman, I never said otherwise. Second is just pedantic bullshit to create the impression you're saying I'm wrong, but you aren't.

Yet another person who agrees with me but wants to come in and troll me anyway.

Edited 12/11/2016 04:55:28
a humble theory: 2016-12-11 04:55:58

Pulsey
Level 56
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Played my part in sending this thread to hidden.
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