Rikku, TJC on EU? #TJCHYPE

Have to go through Waddles first!

Comprehensive Update II:

Here we are. The second comprehensive update. Summer is here. Finals are done. Let aura actually post a good one!

Awkward Silence in the room.

This guys, is why I don't do stand up comedy. In any case, I can't force humor. It has to come naturally. Nor can you force good play. That also has to come naturally. Hydra's persistant under performing proves that to us. They still be have only six points courtesy of milly. It looks like FCC's team games vs Hydra will be the deciding factor when it comes to which of these two top-quality clans will relegate as both continue to bleed points with no want for them in return. Not to mention, FCC is down to 6 substitutes. Ouch. Wonder how that is going to affect their mid-season substitutions. Speaking of which, here is your list of remaining substitutions:

Substitutions

Sninja:			10
WG:			10
TJC: 			10
Hydra:  		10
Statisticians:   	9
FCC:			6

So yea, that mixing/matching thing isn't going so hot. Besides stats, no other team except FCC has used substitutions at this point. That's a pretty good sign for these teams. And here is the other thing everybody wanted: an update of those points themselves.

Quick Update: By Points Scored:

Sninja			28
TJC			27
WG			24
Statisticians		13
FCC			6
Hydra			3

Quick Update: By Max Points:

Sninja			200
Statisticians		188
WG			188
TJC			187
Hydra			173
FCC			163

Completed Games: (Bold detonates winner)

Yup... Sninja is slaughtering WG... not to mention everyone else. Very impressive performance. It is like they are wiping the floor with the rest of the division. And spitting on it. And then wiping it again. Just to make sure that no scent is there but their squeaky clean smell of victory.

Finished Games:

1v1: Guiroma

And the winner is.... Aww... nothing new :(

1v1: French Brawl

Hydra vs TJC		 	https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15506235 (4/28)

1v1: Elitist Africa:

And now for a word from our sponsors... Beren and Deadman Co. Incorperated, specializing in creation and rigging of
services. Own your own rigged tournament today!

2v2: Final Earth

TJC vs Hydra 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15389940 (4/29)

2v2 Volcano Island

WG vs TJC 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15409897 (5/3)

2v2 Szeurope

TJC vs Statisticians		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15375985 (4/30)
Sninja vs FCC 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15375986 (5/4)

3v3 Europe

Sninja vs Statisticians		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15375992 (4/28)
WG vs FCC 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15375991 (5/3)

3v3 Biomes

(Insert yet another FCC loss here)

Edited 5/6/2018 03:59:27

The Horse Race:



Progressions:



Analysis:

Statisticians didnt get a win this week and also lost a pair of team games, making us wonder if our first impressions were off and they are starting to regress back to their mean. Sorry, I had to do that one.

Will the real statisticians please stand up?

So in any case, stats are now having a desire to be outliers. Leaving us with three clans neck and neck for the top three spots: WG, TJC, and Sninja. TJC are holding on in the secured points category, but slipped a bit in max points, placing them behind WG and stats by one point. Besides Sninja, who seems to be fast-tracking their way into a promotion slot, the other slot currently has no clarity whatsoever. It will be interesting to see whether TJC surprising performance continues, and if they can knock WG out of their promotion slot that seemed all but guaranteed at this point.

We have talked about the failings of FCC and Hydra at this point, but Hydra currently has the lever on FCC on avoiding the relegation, with far more max points possible. Can FCC twist fate? Or will Hydra just limp out of this season? Tune in next week... to the Clan League Zone.

Bonus coverage:

As some of you might or might not know, I am a meteorology major. As a result, I am inclined to give a forecast on the conditions I expect for each team. Interpret it as you wish.

FCC -> Stratiform rain, followed by clearing.
Hydra -> Cloudy followed by stratiform rain.
WG -> Clear Skies.
TJC -> Afternoon Thunderstorms
Statisticians -> Floodwaters continue to rise.
Sninja -> TORNADO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As always, forecasts should be weighed as they are: predictions. They can never be 100%.

Edited 5/6/2018 04:29:15

Why didn't sninja just spit on the floor first? That way they don't have to wipe it twice.

Will the real statisticians please stand up?

What do you want from me? ;-)
I still haven't finished a game.

Yeah, I have yet to play an SNinja or TJC team.

What do you want from me? ;-)
I still haven't finished a game.

Wow, you're such a staller.

What do you want from me? ;-)
I still haven't finished a game.

Wow, you're such a staller.

I know right!
But my opponents are outdoing themselves to outstall me, it's like a game in a game!

French school of stalling, baby!
Nack and Ven taught us all their tricks.

Biggest change from CL9 to CL10?

Rakleader's banter.

Why?

Cause he knows Sninja is going to promote to A.

Should I talk more too? or is that overkill? :D

Don't forget to commit though, while stalling

I hate this game and I hate clan league

That's two negatives there, two negatives - - make a + , so secretly you love this game and clan league.

just like everyone secretly wants to have plat's babies. or not.

If you add two negatives it becomes even more negative.

- x - = +
- + - = -

So, the question is, are we multiplying or adding?
According to mathematical language of probability, 'and' means you multiply.
So it's positive.

According to mathematical language of probability, 'and' means you multiply.

If you are talking about the events. If the 'and' refers to the probabilities, it's actually a plus.
P(X = 1 and Y = 1) = P(X = 1) . P(Y = 1)
P(X = 1) 'and' P(Y = 1) = P(X = 1) + P(Y = 1) - P(X = 1) . P(Y = 1) = P(X = 1 or Y = 1)
(all under independence of X and Y)

I hate this game and I hate clan league

In Rikku's example, with P(... = 1) means I hate, X = this game, and Y = clan league, I would arguably say the construction of his sentence may be the second case (sum) rather than the first case (multiplication), but it's not all that clear really.

So please continue this discussion until we have full clarity of the situation! :-)

EDIT: and can we actually assuming the hating of this game and clan league are independent? I think they aren't, in which case both rules are not correct and we have to include the correlation of hating both, which I assume is positive.

Edited 5/12/2018 10:01:51

Comprehensive Update III:

I almost forgot to do this today. My bad.

I did say I as going to do these on Fridays, but I guess I am doing them on Saturdays instead. Neat.

I feel tired and sluggish right now. I want to go to bed. Ugh. I feel as tired and sluggish as FCC's performance has been. Still only one win, with the midseason approaching. Hmmm... Well, anyway, I think a brewed a bit of controversy over a decision I made, to not replace an inactive player in Volcano Island 2v2 until after midseason, effectively giving up 8 free points. Some people are clearly seeing this as a poor decision, since FCC seems to be giving up free points. Which is true. But with 6 substitutions remaining, and midseason upcoming, I am willing to sacrifice 8 points for a better shot at 8 points in the future. FCC doesen't have anyone capable to take over the slot. Knowing the intensity that players take these games, I don't see any feasible way for FCC to win those games anyway. It therefore justifies waiting until a more capable player can be slotted in at the midseason. The odds gained by having an extra slot on hand might outweigh the odds gained by replacing the slot now and losing a slot at the midseason.

This may go against the spirit of clan league. All games should be covered, right? Well, consider this a bit of an experiment, then. What should a clan do with limited substitutions before the midseason, have players of a higher calibur after the midseason, and need to sub in now? If FCC is likely going to demote anyway, now is as good of a time as ever to try and experiment with this a bit. As they say, you don't know if you don't try...

And maybe this is pretty obvious mistake to everyone in warzone and their brother. I am usually prone to obvious mistakes. But, I am committed to this now, so let my errors shine so that they may not happen again...

In any case, you guys can choose to debate whether this is a good idea or not. It make for some interesting discussion. And sure, this may make me the worst manager in CL right now. But as all modelers know... Garbage in == Garbage out. There wasn't much of a chance to begin with.

Anyway, here is what is going on as of now with the scores:

Quick Update: By Points Scored:

TJC 			33
Sninja			32
WG			27
Statisticians		16
Hydra			12
FCC			3

Quick Update: By Max Points:

Sninja			197
TJC			187
Statisticians		185
WG			185
Hydra			170
FCC			153

Completed Games: (Bold detonates winner)

TJC is now first in points scored and second in max points. They definitely have something going on. Its still thisclose between the top four clans. Meanwhile, the divide between FCC and Hydra continues to grow. Now at 17 points, the hole grows deeper.

Finished Games:

1v1: Guiroma


Statisticains vs Hydra		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15594095 (5/7)
Hydra vs Sninja			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15526313 (5/9)
Hydra vs WG			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15594095	 (5/12)


1v1: French Brawl

TJC vs Statisticians		https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15573142	 (5/10)

1v1: Elitist Africa:

WG vs FCC		 	https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15478681 (5/12)
TJC vs FCC		 	https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15546768 (5/9)

2v2: Final Earth

Nothing doing...

2v2 Volcano Island

Sninja vs FCC 			https://www.warzone.com/multiplayer?GameID=15580813 (5/10)

2v2 Szeurope

"knocks on door".... 
Aura: Any progress today?
Group B: Nope
Aura: :(

3v3 Europe

C'mon guys. Super Smoove wanted to analyze more 3v3 Erope games.... you turds... smh.

3v3 Biomes

I guess they were baffled by the bonus system so much that no one were incapable of finishing games this week...

Edited 5/14/2018 02:04:34