georgie wins against Lucien Müller on the old 1v1 ladder template (
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=17321512)
- Despite the chat about both players not caring about the weighted random thing, georgie asked in our clan forums about it, so he had the advantage here while Lucien Müller paid in the beginning for his ignorance.
- Turn 3, georgie was woried about his opponent siting in South America, so he hit the bordering territories a bit harder and his 4v2 was his first order. With 0% straight round this would have made an opponent lader 4v2 attack fail. However with weighted random you have to pull out your calculator here. What I'm interested in are georgies chances of ending up with the territory if he hits first with his 4v2 attack while Lucien Müller hits second with a similar 4v2 attack. My math is a bit rusty, however for georgie to succeed he needs 2 conditions to fullfill, namely
a) His 4v2 attack leaving him with 3 leftovers and
b) Lucien Müllers later 4v3 attack failing.
The math here is:
- 2 * 0.7 = 1.4 --> 60% chance of georgie ending up with 3 leftovers
- 4 * 0.6 = 2.4 --> 60% chance of Lucien Müllers 4v3 attack later not succeeding
Since georgie needs both conditions to work, it's 0.6* 0.6 = 0.36 --> 36% chance of georgie ending up with the territory. So in other words, when it comes to straight round it can make sense to expand 4v2 with first order while when it comes to weighted random you don't want to do this.
- Similarly when it comes to attacking stacks of 3 or 4 armies with 1, this is something you didn't want to do back in the weighted random times.
Edited 12/24/2018 02:40:56