The board looks as follows on turn 1:



We have the intel of Rufus being in Central America.
The panel has come up with the following movesets:

A:
1) Deploy 5 to Bolivia (SA)
2) Take Brazil (SA) with 4v2
3) Take Argentina (SA) with 4v2
And leave Western Russia and Scandinavia sit for this turn.

In this set we are trying to take SA in 2 turns, taking advantage of the fact that Rufus cannot see behind the fog and doesn't know when to counter. It is the high-risk, high-reward strategy, because if we manage to actually complete SA in 2 turns, we are in very good shape, because we can then take all our 3 bonuses while Rufus can hardly take CA. On the other hand, it might be immediately game over if Rufus counters us (or if luck hates us, and we don't manage to complete the +4).


B)
1) Deploy 5 to Ufa (WR)
2) Take Vorkuta (WR) with 4
3) Take Moscow (WR) with 4
4) Try to take Norway (Scan) with 3

In this set, we're aiming to take WR. If we decide against it later, we can still hope to complete Scan. For example, we really suspect Rufus in Middle East, so we complete Scan and smash Georgia turn 4 instead. At the same time, we just do not move our SA pick for the time being and hope Rufus overthinks CA.

C)
1) deploy 1 to Bolivia (SA)
2) Deploy 4 to Svalbard (Scan)
3) Take Brazil with 4
4) Take Norway with 7

Here we go for our only bonus that is truly safe to take in 2 turns (Scan), while at the same time trying to pressure CA on turn 2 and force a brawly situation there. Brawly and/or complicated positions usually mean that the game is unclear and a lot can happen with the correct predictions. Another advantage is that there is no luck needed for Scan in 2 turns, we can guarantee to complete it with 2 attacks of 4 armies. The downside is, that there is probably no advantage to gain with these orders. Rufus probably has a +4 completed after turn 2 (maybe East Africa), which means that we enter the brawl with a 8 vs 9 income disadvantage.

Voting will last until three days after this post. You may vote by notifying me on this thread, or mailing me if you wish for your vote to stay private.

Good luck and have fun!

A

Edited 7/16/2020 17:48:59

EDIT: Changed vote to A

Was voting for B. Imo C is suicidally risk-averse while A is suicidally risk-seeking.

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re: A
[quote[if luck hates us[/quote]

3.2% chance of failure if we deploy +5 in SA both turns; goes up to 15.36% if we plan on deploying +4 next turn. So both luck and Rufus (e.g., showing up in Russia) could easily destroy scenario A. I'm also not convinced this is high-reward; if Rufus completes CA, then we can easily wind up with the classic CA/SA swap where he breaks SA and we break CA, net advantage Rufus.

So I think there's a loooooot more than luck that can go wrong with Scenario A even if Rufus doesn't counter us this turn.

Edited 7/14/2020 23:23:15

Rufus won't go for CA knyte, although he may counter, he'll go for East Africa probably since it's more income

and if he takes CA then it's slight advantage to us - 9vs8, plus if we trade bonuses then it's equal

Edited 7/14/2020 22:41:45

Rufus going for CA is the absolute best case for us, in scenario A.
I don't see how this puts him at an advantage tbh.

And yes, going for a +4 with a single pick is not 100% safe that it gets completed, yet it is widely accepted that one should go for it.

@Farah: You might want to add the game link in the opening post (https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=22959869).

So, who is "the panel"? Do people indeed highly suspect Rufus to have Central America + East Africa + Middle East?

I'm happy with the choices given here and expect lots of different opinions. Well, maybe not for the C option since you have already talked it down in the opening post ;)

Since I also kinda expect Middle East + Africa let me think about Rufus' play in this case:
- Turn 2 Rufus takes East Africa
- Turn 3 Rufus takes Central America and (if not for bad attack luck) he already appears in Georgia.

So let's think about the options (given how I expect Rufus to play it out while Rufus also could not be in Middle East at all):

- A: This option might actually work however it could also make us look super stupid ;)
- B: If my assumptions are correct (and Rufus isn't getting unlucky) we will lose playing like that.
- C: I don't like having an income disadvantage. I have problems seeing us in a favorable situation here no matter how Rufus has actually picked it / will play it.

So, at first I wanted to vote for B but after me thinking loudly here I actually vote for --> A <-- now.

Edited 7/14/2020 23:06:10

yeah, Norman - I have similar logic

the panel (which I'm on) is unsure about the third pick. most of us expect east africa. and then probably most think it's middle east or east china, but some probability to other more esoteric options like Caucasus, Europe, or something else. but it's quite unclear.

Edited 7/14/2020 23:18:48

Flipping vote to A because, as Norman pointed out, B is also a losing position.

---

Hmm, so Rufus is in Cuba for sure. We don't have further intel but the commenters and panel seem to strongly suspect him to be in ME (or CAU) for the powerful counter and EAf (or EC) for the safe bonus.

From Rufus's perspective, some options I can think of for this turn and the next few:

1. (If EAf) Go for EAf in 2 turns. The only safe way to do this is +5 and 2 4v2s; otherwise there's a 36% chance of a failed attack. Next turn this means at least +2 in EAf, probably more for safety (+4 or +5, depending on leftovers- 36% chance +4 will be sufficient for safe takeover). Realistically, I think we can treat option 1 as Rufus having 1 spare army next turn, for a weak counter in Venezuela if he goes for it.

2. (If EC) Expand in EC. This probably means a +1 and a 4v2; otherwise 20% chance of not reducing remaining turns to conquer.

3. (If ME) Take Iran for a counter. Minimum +1 for a 4v2, probably more armies.

4. (If CAU) Take either territory bordering WR. Minimum +1 for 4v2, probably more armies.

5. Go for CA. Minimum +1 to get Mexico with a 4v2.

6. Counter Venezuela. Minimum +1 for 4v2, probably more armies.

Rufus's viable combinations of the above: 1 (by itself), 1 + 3/4/5/6 next turn, 2 + 3/4/5/6 this turn. 5 seems kind of silly this early, as Quicksilver mentioned. 3 is premature. So realistically, 1, 2, 4, 6 are the ones on the table (with even 2 being iffy).

I'm still struggling to appreciate A. A will work brilliantly if Rufus does not counter in Venezuela this turn and if Rufus doesn't attack Venezuela or attacks Venezuela with 5v2 or less next turn. So basically if we expect Rufus to go for 1 or to go for 3/4 over 6.

Rufus could throw us off entirely by going for EAf more slowly (3 turns over 2) and launching a Venezuela counter either this turn or next turn with 6v2 (+3 armies) or better. The luck element is also huge if Rufus attacks Venezuela turn 2; we can be screwed if:

- (16% chance) we have 2 leftovers in Brazil and Argentina; this means we attack Venezuela with a 4v2 at best- if that gets leftovers of 2 (40% chance - total 6.4% chance), then a delayed 4v2 by Rufus is sufficient to take it; alternatively, if Rufus moves first and lands a 4v2 with 3 leftovers (60% chance - total 4.8% chance), our 4v2 fails. So just here there's an 11.2% chance of failure.

- (24% chance) we have 2 leftovers in Brazil (but 3 in Argentina); we attack Venezuela with a 4v2 or 5v2 depending on whether we want to play it safe in Colombia. 4v2 has a 40% chance of failing because of 2 leftovers (leaving us open to a 4v2) + a 30% chance of failing even if it would've left 3 leftovers if we get 2nd turn and Rufus attacks first. 5v2 gambit has a 20% chance of us backfiring if the Argentina->Colombia attack fails.

- (24% chance) we have 3 leftovers in Brazil but 2 in Argentina. We can go for the risky 4v2 for Venezuela or- once again- decide to take a risk with Colombia in exchange for a 5v2 (20% chance of failing in Colombia). But even the 5v2 can fail if Rufus attacks with a 6v2 and leaves 4 leftovers, for example.

- (36% chance) we have 3 leftovers everywhere, so the Brazil->Venezuela attack can be a 5v2 or 6v2 (if we want to risk Argentina->Colombia failing 20% of the time). The 5v2 will fail if Rufus attacks first with a 6v2 or attacks second with a 7v2 or 8v2; I guess this is the only scenario where I think we don't need to worry about Rufus's move that much.

64% of the time, our leftover situation leaves us vulnerable to a Rufus Cuba->Venezuela attack; even if Rufus goes for 2-turn EAf, a 4v2 Cuba->Venezuela attack can easily be on the table, in which case we're at the mercy of random turn order and/or rounding.

Edited 7/14/2020 23:39:55

@knyte:

Rufus could throw us off entirely by going for EAf more slowly (3 turns over 2) and launching a Venezuela counter either this turn or next turn with 6v2 (+3 armies) or better. The luck element is also huge if Rufus attacks Venezuela turn 2; we can be screwed if:

IMO you are kinda ignoring some basic WarLight "bro knowledge" whle doing your calculations. Rufus will definitely want a bonus turn 2. The problem for Rufus with countering South America is that he also wants his second bonus turn 3. That's why I wasn't too unhappy about us ending up with South America since playing against that pick from Central America is more difficult than it looks like.

Also, of course you can calculate the exact risk of Rufus failing to take East Africa however since that risk has been deemed as acceptable after a couple of hundred thousand of ladder + autogames, Rufus will accept that risk without any second thought.

Edited 7/14/2020 23:50:08

A.

Option A.

IMO Rufus has East Africa and either ME or Caucasus. That puts us at disadvantage and its worth taking some risks to generate some momentum. If Rufus counters turn 2 we auto-lose but them's the breaks.

@Phobos: Since you joked about my hindsight powers as I looked over MoDs 3 pick run I'd like to this time also make a bold statement without seeing the whole game: No way Rufus has picked Caucasus. If I'm wrong and Rufus has indeed picked Caucasus, he will fail miserably.

I think ME is far more likely. But I fail to see how caucasus will cause him to fail miserably. Caucasus is better than ME if he jumps to counter WR, and only mildly worse if he jumps to counter CR. Sure his intel might be more ironclad with ME, but his intel is probably pretty good regardless.

Edited 7/15/2020 02:34:53

you guys see murderers in shadows very often?

Even if Rufus knows our 3 picks, he can't counter both WR and SA because he doesn't know which one we are going for. He counters one and we'd taken the other he's at a huge disadvantage. So he can't counter hard

He doesn't know we have Scan, he does know we have WR (surely he knows WR)
He may think we have WR+CR combo.
He must have a counter for WR that isn't CR or Scan...
Why can't he have got Caucasus to counter WR+CR?

He picked the same 123 as us his 4th safe in E Africa and his 5th his WR+CR counter. (Caucasus)
Or what solution does he have against WR+CR?

I vote for B.

The reason is, that I am not yet panicking and I'd like to take my safe bonus first. It is a safe bonus in my opinion, because even if Rufus has Caucasus which I still think is likely, he will not move it yet towards our bonus because he will need 2x5 for EA, which means that 1. he can only move with 3 armies (risky) and secondly, if we go for another bonus, he completely wasted his Caucasus pick and even put it at a disadvantage.

Also, this way we can take Scandi in turn 3 and wait for potential overdeploys from Rufus in CA/SA.

For me, this is a clear case. The only real risk is Rufus coming from Caucasus this turn, which I tried to explain is unlikely, and a risk I'm willing to take. While on the other hand going for SA is good if it works (but not like we have clear advantage then!) and a huge risk of not succeeding and us pressing the surrender button.

Edited 7/15/2020 10:36:52

I agree with AI's thoughts and vote B as well. I don't see how option A gives us any advantage even if we happen to complete SA in 2 turns. We'll both be at 9 income probably - only difference being his income is safe while he is threatening ours. I don't expect him to expand in CA. He'll just sit and use his armies to fight SA. He knows we have SA since he got EAfr and there really is nothing else that we could have in that area.

I'm really surprised to see how everyone thinks Middle East is so much more likely than Caucasus though. He could have either one to be honest. Caucasus at least is a quick counter that also covers CR. I mean CR isn't that great of a combo here since there is not only the counter from Caucasus but also from Xinjiang... But still, you might want to cover it if you're going to leave Scandi and the Russias completely open as he apparently did...

Him being in EAfr is a safe bet though.

@Norman: There is Njord, buns, Quicksilver, Mod, Beren and me on the panel who discuss things, however so far it's only been me who wrote down sets + explanations. (we appreciate any help)

Edited 7/15/2020 11:30:00

OK, let me explain why I see Caucasus as so unlikely. Let's assume Rufus is indeed in Caucasus.

--> He has to be in Central America + East Africa + Caucasus then. Everything apart from East Africa is just some meming around.

--> Rufus picked it as 1: Central America, 2: East Africa and 3: Caucasus. His picks 4-6 were wherever however far away from Russia. Having 2 picks there risks a swift defeat.

--> Caucasus in order to hit both West Russia + Central Russia at the same time isn't a thing. That combo badly loses to Scandinavian Peninsula so Rufus can't expect us to combo there.

--> To some extent you could also think about Caucasus having a wasteland since Rufus can't expect to be able to take the bonus. Caucasus is a pure blind counter play.

--> Us having Scandinavian Peninsula + West Russia is already pretty much the best case for Rufus in Caucasus. I wasn't too happy with our picks not primarily because of South America but because us having 2 spots now around Russia.

--> Rufus had to consider that he might lose Central America. Given that Rufus picked Caucasus the way this would have worked out then would be:
Us:
- Central America
- South America
- West Russia

Rufus:
- East Africa
- Caucasus
- ... West Africa?

--> AI believes Caucasus to be likely however then he makes good arguments why the pick is so weak and how difficult it is for Rufus to play the pick.


-----------------------------------------
Now let's assume Rufus has picked Middle East.

--> I believe his picks were then 1: Central America, 2: South America, 3: East Africa, 4: Middle East

--> If Rufus loses East Africa, he snipes us there and wins the game. As our supposedly safe bonus we take East Africa first. IMO Rufus saw a quite some chance of him losing East Africa and it was just a coincidence that we didn't get a vote for that pick.

--> If Rufus gets Central America + East Africa he knows that we have 2 picks around Russia. I'm not sure whether his plan is to then take Middle East first or to move immediately towards Russia.

--> If Rufus loses Central America, he gets South America + East Africa + Middle East. I don't like that too much but that's why he picked Central America as number 1. If Rufus doesn't lose short term either to Central America or due to Middle East being quite difficult to take, he will win the game as soon as he reveals his Middle East pick. That would then also be when we are beginning to take our second bonus there.

Edited 7/15/2020 12:49:57

@AI: IMO you guys should discuss your thoughts not so much behind closed doors but more here. Especially after his 3 pick ladder run I'm quite curious what MoD thinks about where Rufus picked. I have learned the game by reading and listening to Dead Piggys and Szeweningens thoughts back then and nowadays people can learn from you thinking out loud. Even if Rufus completely fools you guys, at least I'm (hopefully) able to distinguish between a bad thought process and the opponent getting a lucky counter punch.

Predictions : he is not in CAU*, he will not go for CA** and he will counter SA**.

*Again, how is CAU better than CR or ME? And we know he didn't pick CR.
**We should assume he got his first 2 picks in CA and EA. So he knows the chance of us being in SA is quite high even if he didn't pick it.