I am missing some gold on his profile!

No seriously, I would not call this random counterplay by any means. He knows that the only way we can turn the SA pick into something "useful" for us is to take the thing in 2 turns. Such ballsy expansion is not uncommon, he even does that himself (I could back it up with links but I think we should not discuss the style of players, but positions)

What you are missing there IMO is that Rufus has already one pick which he can't transform into easy income and this is true for Middle East, Caucasus or whatever, even if it's East China.

I did not miss it, I rather see it as one of the few advantages of our picks. Although I am of the opinion that EC is easy income and our position is worse if he has that instead of Cauc/ME/whatever. I always was of the opinion that EC is super strong against Russia, as I pointed out in option C of my pick set, but I guess I am alone with that opinion

About East China being fast, Rufus most likely wants his second bonus turn 3 which isn't possible if Rufus counters South America. He then risks us having 2 bonuses against his 1 bonus which could lead to a rather quick defeat.


I have also made another argument which you haven't refuted yet:

I also believe Rufus won't counter South America (if we take it within 2 turns, that is), is simply because he can't. Lacking a combo or a +3 bonus, he can deploy a total of 0 armies against us there. A meaningful turn 2 counter must be an attack with 5 IMO. Also if Rufus takes Central America + attacks South America at the same time, he can't hit us properly.

Edited 7/17/2020 19:25:08

It is WR, so we obviously cant calculate it all out, but there is a 36% chance that Rufus has good leftovers in EA, so that he can attack SA with 4 armies next turn. Okay, there is the possibility that we can attack with 5 (in case we also get the perfect leftovers), but I still feel like if he can attack with 4, he will try that last order next turn, because it is little risk for high potential reward. (If both players attack the same territory with 4 armies, the player who attacks later has the higher chance of getting it, but I don't recall the exact odds)

B nothing else

Voting has ended. I'll count the votes and commit the moves tomorrow. If anyone who's brought arguments but no actual vote, post them within 8 hours of this thread.

Unofficial vote tally because I can't wait 8 hours:

A (6): Quicksilver, knyte, Norman, Master Meldarion, Phobos, Njord
B (7): AI, 89thlap, Soldier of Orange, Checkmqte, Min34, OvertForeigner, yeeeeeeeeeeeeehooooooo
C (1): GuestNWHSzY
surrender (1): berdan131
wait 2d23h, go with your gut (1): hexe1309

We can combine a few options for A to get the majority. If your wait 2d23h (+1) and go with your gut to play A (+6), then surrender immediately afterwards (+1), you will not only have plurality support but also have 50% of votes behind the choice.

Edited 7/18/2020 02:25:32

The vote was close, but The World voted for option B. This is what happened:

The World captured Vorkuta (WR) from Ufa (WR) with a 4v2. 2 armies are lost.
The World captured Moscow (WR) from Ufa (WR) with a 4v2. 1 army was lost
The world captured Norway (Scan) from Svalbard (Scan) with a 3v2. 1 army was lost.

The board looks as follows:



Expect a new thread for turn two in the coming days!

All right, nothing unexpected so far.


Here some options about what has happened behind the fog / what will happen:

What I think:
Rufus will take East Africa now. The turn after he will take Central America and, I believe, attack us in Russia. He will counter South America neither this turn nor next turn. We will both be on 12 income and Rufus will have quite a huge positional advantage however we might still get some lucky predictions, so the game isn't over.

Here is the thought process behind the B picks:
Rufus will take East Africa now and he will counter South America with either a 4v2 attack (36% chance) or a 3v2 attack (64% chance). The turn after Rufus will attack us in Russia and he won't be able to take a second bonus. Fighing us in Russia on a 9 v 12 income disadvantage there is a huge chance that Rufus won't ever be able to take a second bonus however Rufus might still get some lucky predictions so the game isn't over.

Edit: There also is the thought that Rufus might be in East China. If Rufus is in East China and simultaneousy attacks us in South America, he can already start hovering his finger over the surrender button (without yet pressing it though) due to him being at a 9v12 income disadvantage and being in a tough positional spot.

Edited 7/19/2020 00:09:29

Just how much thinking can go into one small game xd

I got a feeling you guys are overthinking it

yeah turn 1 was always going to be boring and lock us into a turn 2 plan. Luck was not catastrophic so we can guarantee WR.

Only points of contention I can think of is to try to take Brazil or not, as I don't see anything to be gained by risking not guaranteeing WR.