So you aren’t Belgian? Idk what to believe anymore

Look at his clan and it should tell you

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-election-isnt-over/

Current status of the election (~15min). TL;DR: Biden landslide is obviously out of the picture. We do not know who has won. It comes down to the wire.

The rest are just notes I'm taking while listening to the podcast, so this is mostly Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot)'s analysis.

Arizona has been called for Biden by Associated Press and Fox News but not yet ABC.

Wisconsin: we expect results to be mostly in Wednesday morning, mainly waiting on Milwaukee
Michigan: we expect results results to come in sometime Wednesday
Pennsylvania: expect to take until Friday to report all results
Georgia: expect rough results @ noon on Wednesday

Likely blue shift coming from not-yet-counted mail-in ballots + urban areas (Milwaukee, Atlanta, etc.).

"Tea leaves" from Upper Midwest states:
WI - lots of absentees left to count in Milwaukee, Trump ahead by only 3-4 pts at time of podcast, so WI deficit is not particularly daunting
PA - suburban and urban counties (e.g., Harrisburg and Scranton area) bode will for Biden to some extent as he's outperforming Clinton by about 5pts; but this isn't happening consistently across the rest of the state, so cautious optimism for Biden there

Senate is not going to go Democratic, most likely. They have lost in AL (predictable), likely ME, AZ not called, NC looking good for Tillis, IA projected for Ernst (R), so Dems do not have the opportunities they need to get a majority. Still too soon to call but unlikely that Dems get Senate.

and of course, House has been called for Dems.

In other news, CA passed Prop-22 (which reclassifies Uber/Lyft/etc. drivers back as independent contractors, undoing the changes from AB-5) and three states have voted tonight to legalize weed.

i have a personal problem with the us system

Why Does senate Exists? Why Cant House Of representatives have the senate's Power?

nevada and wisconsin being red was fun while it lasted

Edit: Another piece of good news- an Electoral College tie is now extremely unlikely to happen.

Good chance we will know result by end of Wednesday. The states to watch are MI, WI, GA. If Trump wins all 3, it's over for Biden (unless he can win NC, NV, PA). If Biden wins any 2, it's over for Trump (unless he can win NC, NV, PA).

At this point, WI will likely be called before most people see this. NC and NV both accept late-arriving mail-in ballots and so final results will take a while there; most likely, NC goes red and NV blue. GA comes down to just how well Biden did in Atlanta, while MI and PA hinge on mail-in ballots. Due to the partisan skew when it comes to mail-in voting this election (one side takes COVID more seriously), basically there's staggering margins in these mail-in ballots: In PA, of the 2.4M returned mail-in ballots, about 66% are from registered Democrats vs. 23% from registered Republicans. Plus late-counted votes tend to also be from cities, so chronologically you can expect later-counted votes in battleground states to lean Democratic.

All in all, this is a narrow race coming down to the wire and exposing us as a very deeply divided nation. Lots of fascinating demographic phenomena (huge gender divide, especially among Latinos). If we're unlucky, we have to wait for PA to decide the election (that can take til Friday or later) but right now there's a good chance someone locks in 270 by Wednesday night.

Edited 11/4/2020 11:30:53

Great analysis by knyte.
I did a summary for a group of interesting friends. It's from the viewpoint of a Biden win because that's currently the most likely, but you could flip it around for a Trump win as well.

Biden wins state XX if he get YY% of the outstanding vote. This is ZZ.
Maine - 35% - almost certain
Arizona - 39% - almost certain (updated from 42% -> 39% after latest drop)
Nevada - 48% - likely
Wisconsin - 40% - likely (updated from 50% -> 40% after latest drop)
Michigan - 52% - likely (updated from 59% -> 54% -> 52% after latest drop)
Pennsylvania - 68% - possible
Georgia - 63% - possible (fixed rounding error)
North Carolina - 65% - unlikely
Alaska - 58% - unrealistic

Interpretation of probabilities entirely mine and based on most recent information of the outstanding vote (expected to be democratic leaning for Wisconsin (mainly Green Bay), Michigan (mainly Detroit & Lansing), Pennsylvania (mainly mail-in ballots), Georgia (almost exclusively Fulton county), while no obvious advantage for any party for other states as far as I am aware)

Edited 11/4/2020 13:04:12

i find it ironic that The Republican party Claims To Be Conservative And Patriotic But They Seem More and More Like A Fascist Party

It's already over. The senate is going to block literally everything Biden would propose, and then he'll cave in just like every other democrat.

goragl & Thungsten: as far as I'm aware, it is not allowed to discuss politics itself on Warzone. I believe knyte's post and myself's are within what is considered acceptable.

Additionally, what Thungsten says about the senate is factually incorrect:

Georgia outstanding ballots are in democratic leaning areas, so it's a realistic possibility that both Georgia races will go to a run-off (i.e. if Perdue drops under 50%).
Since it's reasonably likely that democrats will lock 48 seats (Arizona and Michigan in addition to races that are already called), senate is certainly not decided yet.

While arguably one of the most likely senate outcomes at his moment is 48-51 (Georgia-1 R, Maine R, NC R, Michigan D, Arizona D), any outcome between 47-52 (considerable probability that Michigan goes R) and 50-48 (Maine (high % outstanding vote) & NC (democratic leaning outstanding vote) also D combined with Georgia-1 run-off) is currently realistic enough to be considered.

(Note: my personal interest in the US election is purely from a statistical modelling and prediction point of view. Elections outcomes are very fascinating, especially in complex 2-party systems like the US.)

Edited 11/4/2020 14:21:24

Re: Politics- Discussion of politics is acceptable in threads that are clearly labeled as political (this one is) and have a neutral, non-sensational title. At least per the rules on the wiki.

The idea of the rule seems to be to keep heated political discussions from taking over common spaces where people can't consent to political discussion; for a forum thread like this one, someone entering *can* consent.

So in response to Tungsten: The executive is powerful and does not need a federal trifecta to make a difference. While it's likely that Biden would struggle to make any landmark legislative achievements (his health care plan, his tax plan, his climate plan), he- if elected- would have some solid leeway to change some policies (E.g., fracking on public land, federal law enforcement guidelines) and a good bit of extra leeway from controlling the House, which has power of the purse. We won't see a super-liberal administration- I mean, if Biden wins by so little (rn, 20k votes in Wisconsin), his mandate is paper-thin anyways- but we can expect change.

Let's just annex Belgium. It'll be an epic prank.

Current status: There's 5 states in play. Biden has 254 EVs safe while Trump has 217 EVs safe (they need 270 to win). I am counting AK for Trump because it's 2:1 for him and unlikely that the remaining half of the vote can reverse that... it's also reliably red in general. I am not counting AZ for Biden because mathematically it's very plausible that Trump retakes the state with the remaining red-leaning votes from Maricopa County. We do not have enough data to dismiss that likelihood, and we do won't get such data until tomorrow night.

PA (Trump lead, swinging blue), AZ (Biden lead, swinging red), and GA (Trump lead, swinging blue) are pure tossups right now. With AZ back in play, 269/269 with no faithless electors is actually possible again (if Biden wins GA, Trump wins PA, NC, NV, AZ) but unlikely. NV (Biden lead, likely to swing blue) leans blue, while NC (Trump lead, swinging blue) is likely red.

It's still anyone's election but the path to victory is easier for Biden. To win, Biden needs to win PA or any combination of 2 states in play. In contrast, Trump has to win PA and 3 of the 4 remaining states in play. Biden's got really good shots (better than even, I'd say) of winning in PA and GA, and so far Trump's numbers look to be just on the edge of what he would need to take AZ, so while it's nowhere near safe to call the election for Biden just yet he's definitely playing at an advantage.

---

Non-presidential stuff
1. Democrats have an outside chance of taking the Senate. If they can bring Perdue's %age in Georgia to below 50.00 (it'll be close, currently 50.07), then that triggers a runoff in Georgia. So Dems will have 48 seats, GOP 50, and Dems will have to win both runoff seats in Georgia to get a thin Senate majority (50+VP tiebreaker).

2. House is going Dem, but many of the Dems' Blue Wave surprise wins of 2018 are not holding. They are definitely underperforming downballot vs. 2018.

Edited 11/5/2020 07:51:42

if the results stay the same in presidential election biden wins he gets exactly 270 votes

Nice analysis again knyte!

A lot of uncertainty is about the outstanding vote. From what I understand, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona are all slight D advantage at this point because Georgia and Pennsylvania outstanding votes seems to be more blue than required for a flip, while Arizona outstanding votes are expected to not be more red than required for a flip.

I'm currently considering Nevada not less of a toss-up as these other four as it's not that clear if the outstanding vote is truly that blue in Nevada.


Also, I'd be looking forward to an equally detailed analysis of the vote in the next Belgian and European election!

Votes as counted on 2020-11-05 14:07 CET

A good chance that the election gets called for Biden tomorrow, due to GA+NV and/or PA. And as I said last time, AZ is in play- Biden is at 253, not 264. Trump retains an outside chance of winning, but the window's closing.

Some really really good accounts to follow if you want live election updates and play-by-play re-analyses of Biden's and Trump's chances of winning various states in play:

Ryan Matsumoto at Inside Elections - https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/with_replies

Daniel Nichanian at The Appeal - https://twitter.com/taniel/with_replies

Tonight there's about 14-15k votes remaining in GA (plus an unknown number of military, overseas, provisional, and 'cured' ballots [rejected ones that get fixed and counted, so like if someone's signature is off]). The only county actively updating is Clayton County, which is left-leaning and should be enough to flip the 1.9k vote lead that Trump has.

The remaining counties in Georgia for tomorrow are one big left-leaning county and a couple of smaller right-leaning counties. If Biden is up tonight, tomorrow he'll likely just run up the score and secure Georgia.

In Pennsylvania Biden is down about 24k with a lot of votes left in not only mail-ins but urban neighborhoods that he's doing well in. Philadelphia is slowed down (due to a Trump lawsuit LMAO) and so is stuck at 91%. There's a good chance PA flips tonight or tomorrow and once it's done Biden just runs up the score in Philly. Mail-ins are overwhelmingly favorable to Biden (as you would expect, since he has a deficit of like 1.3M in in-person votes).

Meanwhile in Arizona, there's some noise but Trump is currently slightly underperforming the margins he needs to retake that state. He might do better or worse in future ballots, but so far there's some good breathing room for Biden.

There's 3 states really in play. NV's remaining votes are likely solid blue- Las Vegas may have a gambling problem but even they're not going to take the risk of a second Trump term. 3/4 of the votes seem to be in Clark County (Las Vegas) with the remainder in other counties (middle of nowhere); Clark is 2:1 Biden so far while the rest is 2:1 Trump. So looks like overall strong blue showing.

Of the 3- PA, GA, AZ- Biden only needs one.

Great map for Biden, great odds of flipping PA or GA, great chance we're in the endgame now.

Also, to add some stakes:
I am confident that Biden will win Georgia. In fact, I am so confident that, if he doesn't, I will post my honest review of Warzone Idle on the forums and risk the permaban for saying bad things about it.

Edited 11/6/2020 05:47:11

wait you lie about warzone idle?

people like idle?