Yeah Pride is right, because there are an unknown number of wolves that the wolves aren't going to kill, so it is going to be less than 1 in 27. Still, it seems that the plan is good.

Actually, when I go back and count, there are still 29 people alive, so I suppose if there are only 2 wolves, it could still be a 1 in 27 chance...

Darn now I kinda have to do math -_- (Damn you internal math genius -_-)

Let's assume 5 wolves, since that seems to be a pretty common thought around here (not quite sure how you guys came up with it, but then I wasn't here for the last 3 games...). To me it's also probably pretty reasonable to assume there are an equal number of Seers and Angels, so I'll make that assumption too (if anyone thinks differently, please enlighten me). Let's assume also that wolves and villagers kill off random people each night and day (for simplicity's sake). 1 last assumption, Villagers never accidentally kill off the angel.

Here goes the analysis:

Night 1 (with 1 angel, 1 seer): Wolves have 4.3% chance of having killed angel
Night 1 (2 each): 8.6% chance of killing angel.
Night 2 (1 each): 8.6% chance of killing angel.
Night 2 (2 each): 16.8% chance of killing angel.

Following this progression, with 1 seer and angel, the angel will be killed with 50% likelihood on night 9. However, if there are 2, there is a 50% chance of an angel being killed on only night 5. And if there are 3, 50% chance of an angel being killed only 2 nights from now.

Whew...math guy inside my head is happy now. Take from this what you want.

TL;DR: If there are any more than 1 angel, it is probably not a good idea to rely on angels to keep seers safe if they reveal themselves to everyone.

Edited 11/3/2014 01:50:23

Hey Hey Hey you can't kill Semice, I vote hisballs and if 8 can arun also.

Nah if there is only 1 angel it isnt really that scary. If there is 2 or more though it kinda starts getting there sorta. Of course, the worst thing that could happen then would be for there to be 2 known seers and only the 1 angel to protect them.

Sometimes the math guy in me takes over...I was worried that your plan was really bad so I just had to do the math. It turns out it's not really TOO bad, just slightly worrisome.

And hey, since I did all that work, why not show it to everyone? :)

Edited 11/3/2014 02:16:23

I'm not really sure why you guys are voting to kill me I literally laid out my reasoning and honestly I'm feeling so attacked right now

CHANGE VOTE TO: Semicedevine

This is alot to take in. I'd go with Kasparov but if he's going to die anyway then I will go Semice. What the hell were you thinking, trying to lie and manipulate the village? There's no room for that sort of crap here, it ONLY helps the wolves by creating confusion.

vote: Semicedevine

Ok, so quickly: BDH seems to have solid reasoning. Voting him out would be foolish.

Kasparov: Confirmed Wolf, we should make sure he dies TONIGHT (Through vote or inactive) so we can see if Arun's Seer is telling the truth, or needs to be killed himself.

His Balls has shown to indication of being a wolf, why is he accumulating so many votes? I'd suggest looking hard at his accusers.

Semice, I do not know what you were trying to pull there. If you were the Jester, it makes sense to turn public sentiment against you so as to get yourself lynched. But its already been 5 days isnt it ? - Dom please clarify if the Jester can be reborn after 5 days -

Vote: Semicedevine - on account of I should vote and might as well as vote for you.

Bdh says.

So idk what your logic in thinking I was a wolf because what I have figured out is if you play the game to start, you get lynched really early. The one game I waited until the very end to play was when I won as a wolf. The next game I started playing and died turn 2 from lynch. So if you think me not doing anything at start makes me a wolf, lynch me, have fun.

Clavicus says this is good reasoning? I say it is the worst possible.

My logic was you just turned up and hopped on the easiest bandwagon to hide on when there was so much to talk about going on around you. You have since proven you are around and so voting you has made you talk at least. You are saying you stay quite for a survivalist purpose. That is anti village. It is a team game. Put yourself out there and help the village riding first or last as a villager makes no difference. Sobyeah I think you not doing anything is dodgy.

I wanted to vote Kasp, but seeing he'll be modkilled it's going to be pointless.

I have a hard time figuring out Semicedivine. His photoshop stunt sure was absurd, but he also seems to be trying really hard to help the village. Can't say all his plans are awesome, but he does have a village feel to me.

I can live with voting BDH since he seems to be playing like the last time he was wolf. Granted that doesn't automatically mean he is wolf, but it does mean he isn't really helping the town.

vote bdh

Guys, BDH hasn't incriminated himself. WE CANNOT VOTE FOR SEMICE. HE IS EITHER AN ANGEL OR A FOOL; we don't get either. Vote Lawlz.

Change to Pride

Your plan semice.

What's the advantage of the seers revealing themselves publically?

This method of proving a seers credibility which I discussed at 20:16 yesterday is not actually foolproof whether the seer predicts an angel or a villager. Eg kasp has told the wolves he is not gonna be able to play, so they can bus him. Another wolf goes to arun claiming seer and that he knows kasp is a wolf. Gains credibility. Not foolproof.

Dont go public specials.

VOTE SEMICE. Looks like we might get traction here.

The maths stuff. Train town it doesn't really matter whether there is one, two or three angels/seers because the last one of three or two will effectively have the same chance of a random kill of our only one.

Not sure why we are doing this though as its never gonna actually be random and they are safer hidden.

Arun. Why is semice either angel or fool?

Fool I could see but not angel. And like I have said I have no problem allowing the fool to have his hollow victory.

There is slim pickings evidence wise for anyone but you understand why kasp would be a wasted vote right?

This method of proving a seers credibility which I discussed at 20:16 yesterday is not actually foolproof whether the seer predicts an angel or a villager. Eg kasp has told the wolves he is not gonna be able to play, so they can bus him. Another wolf goes to arun claiming seer and that he knows kasp is a wolf. Gains credibility. Not foolproof.

Precisely why I don't trust Arun with roles.

Vote Lawlz.

Yet he still claims me to be village

Show us the votes dom

and also make a spreadsheet

You could do that for us taco? We can count ourselves. Dom can then be more of an adjudicator. If we miscount somehow and the wrong person is called up for lynch I'm sure they or someone else will speak up. Those under attack should be keeping an eye on the votes in particular. If they aren't then tough luck.

Edited 11/3/2014 08:22:16

Votes

Kasparov - 5
Semicedevine - 7
bdh- 1
Mr.Pride -1

please tell me if im wrong

Edited 11/3/2014 10:02:46

VOTES SEMICE

So if we vote semice and he does turn out to be the jester, will he be reborn as a villager? Has he won already then?

@hisballs I agree on the logic that the seer who "outs" kasparov might be a wolf in disguise

since voting kasparov has become useless,

I CHANGE MY VOTE AGAIN TO SEMICE

Change vote to : Semice