The closest lynch yesterday I get killed by a vig -_-

Gg

Shut up Coaleyes.

The seers know what they are doing, no need for you to worry about that.

Edited 11/8/2014 09:57:53

Taco don't forget I can haunt you now :)

:O

Windu, Your making a bad decision. If you dare kill me then you will be in shock that I am not a wolf.

Windu, trust me.

So, who do you think is a wolf?

Alright, I managed to get the specials to contact me. So far, I got info on one of the wolves the seers found. One of them is...Frank!! We are still waiting for the wolf they other seers say, though, but once I get it, I will say it ASAP.

Obviously, my vote this round is gonna be Frankdeslime.

Mmph I don't know whether to trust you or not -_- at least now we have something to work with. For now vote Frank.

Oooo draw for first match of WCC 2014. I can tell I'm gonna get absolutely no sleep this month...

Ok. I'm following Viegar's lead here, but considering he is high on my suspect list, if we find Frank is not a wolf, I will immediately push for a Viegar's lynch.

Vote: Frankdeslimste

I dunno, We gotta find out.

Ok I've thought about this a little bit more. The way I see it there are 4 possibilities. First, Veigar and his seer are telling the truth. Second, Veigar is telling the truth, but his seer informant is a lying wolf. Third, Veigar is a lying wolf, and there is no need for a seer. Fourth, Veigar himself could be a seer.

Gonna do another little statistical analysis here. (keep in mind that this doesn't take into account anything anybody has said)

Let's check out both best and worst case proposed scenarios, 5 and 8 wolves. There are 20 people left (if I've been keeping track correctly), so that means that, respectively, there are 15 and 12 villagers/specials left.

Best case:
Veigar + Seer both are villagers/specials: 15/20*14/19 = 55.3% chance.
Veigar is a wolf: 5/20 = 25% chance.
Veigar is a villager but his seer is a wolf: 15/20*5/19 = 19.7% chance.
Veigar being a seer is just a special case of the first scenario.
In this case, 55.3% of the time we should follow Veigar's advice, and 44.7% of the time we shouldn't.

Worst case:
Veigar + Seer both are villagers/specials: 12/20*11/19 = 34.7% chance.
Veigar is a wolf: 8/20 = 40% chance.
Veigar is a villager but his seer is a wolf: 12/20*8/19 = 25.3% chance.
Veigar being a seer is again just a special case of the first scenario.
In this case, 34.7% of the time we should follow Veigar's advice, and 65.3% of the time we shouldn't.

Given these 2 cases, and the fact that this is the only lead, I am going to stick with Frank for now. If Frank is a villager, then we can assume that either Veigar or his seer is a wolf. I might change depending on who Veigar points out the second wolf to be.

Yeap.
Vote Frankdeslimste

I'm happy to go along with this. If Frank isn't a wolf then we'll get a wolf anyway.

Edit: Forgot this: Vote: Frank

Edited 11/8/2014 18:44:00

Was there a need for all those numbers? They really mean nothing considering the game isn't just a chance-based probability game. It's confusing and fluffy, perhaps even Wolfy

That said, yes Frank might aswell go, and if he's a villager we'll demand a confession as to who the fake seer is or just lynch Veigar. This is reminding me of Arun's Charade though so don't try and be clever, Veigar.


Vote: Frank

No not really, but remember I'm numbers guy. I do the numbers. Also, there isn't much we can know for absolute certain right now. Right now it's more of whether you trust Veigar.

I'll vote for Frankdeslimste