UK A defending champs!

The first qualifying round is underway!

We also have a new and improved Google spreadsheet for this event! Feel free to check it out: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R7VDKXYN3ofo5xBkPQ_XOmcCCmb1W2w_kHXCO2qy_Xs/edit?usp=sharing

Just a suggestion - add the link to the new spreadsheet to the first post, currently I dont see any links to current standing there

That's a very good suggestion. The spreadsheet is now on top of the opening post.

It's been less than a week since kickoff and half of the Guiroma games are already done! Let's see what happened.

The full results can be found on the official spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R7VDKXYN3ofo5xBkPQ_XOmcCCmb1W2w_kHXCO2qy_Xs/edit?usp=sharing

This is a very basic overview where we only look at the most imortant stats.

Team : Points/Games completed

Group A
NL A : 6/7
ANZ A : 4/5
FIN : 3.5/9
NOR C : -2/11

If there's a group of death in these qualifiers, it's this one. Not only were the three A teams drawn together, but also one of them is NL A, the highest seeded team in these whole qualifiers.
Only two teams will pass to the next stage. So far, NL and ANZ are pulling ahead. Tough luck for FIN, who have a really strong lineup on paper.
NOR C is an outsider in this group, with just 1 win so far, which doesn't even cover their penalty for incomplete lineup.

Interestingly, the two Twitch commentators who covered the NC kickoff stream were matched against each other. The Min34 vs Texx game is still on turn 1. This will be interesting to follow!

Group B
GER D : 4/5
CAN A 4/8
BEL 2/4
ITA D 2/7

With two A teams and two D teams, this group looked like the easiest one to predict. But here we go: GER D is firmly ahead, with CAN and BEL both having 50% win rate.
Yes it's still early and yes, CAN was hit with 3 nonjoins which influenced their score, but if I were Canadian or Belgian, I would maybe start feeling just a tiny bit nervous!
ITA D currently in 4th place, but the distance to 2nd or even 1st place isn't big at all. A very balanced group.

Group C
ITA A : 7/8
NOR A : 4/5
CAN B : 3/7
POL C : 0/8

Now this looks more like what you would expect. Two A teams at the top, with CAN B still being very much in range of promotion.
But here we have a tiny surprise as well. Canada submitted their B team for the first time ever, so they were the bottom seed. Yet they are doing much better than the regular contenders, POL C.

Group D
SWI : 10/10
POL D : 3.5/10
ITA B : 3/7
ANZ C : 1/11

Dominating performance by the Swiss! The only undefeated team in qualifiers so far, and with a lot of games completed!
Then we have a surprisingly close fight for the second place between ITA B and POL D. The Poles didn't even submit a complete lineup, and yet they appear to be doing a better job here than their C team. We tried to contact the Polish teams' organiser for comment, but he was unavailable.
ANZ C are dwelling at the bottom, but still they managed to score a good win against ITA B.

Group E
EAS : 11/13
ANZ B : 6/14
USA C : 5/11
UK C : 4/14

Another case of one team dominating the group, the Asians are clear favourites to promote.
USA C was hit by a few non-joins, but the issue appears to be solved so the French Brawl round should go better for them.
The battle for the second spot is perhaps the closest we've seen so far, and with this being the quickest playing group, it will be fun to follow!

Group F
GER C : 5/6
NL B : 4/6
USA D : 1/8

Germans topping their group again! After seeing such fantastic starts by GER C and GER D, the decision to include GER B among the top 8 seeds appears much less controversial than at the start, am I right?
NL B, perhaps a bit surprisingly, pulls ahead of USA D. Americans were the higher seeded of the two, and with their playerbase dominating this game in terms of numbers, you could expect even their D team to do well at this level. And when you realise that one of their players joined one game, but not the other, this group makes you scratch your head a bit.

Group G
POL B : 4/7
NOR B : 3/6
IRL : 2/7

Now isn't this a fun group! No controversies at all!
The top seed here is actually Ireland, who got about 60% of their seeding points from the times they played together with UK, and the rest from the 2021 season when they played alone.
Being top bracket seed didn't help them much, since they were drawn with the top seed of the lower bracket - POL B - and also NOR B, a team that could very much be stronger than their A team.
As such, they are probably in the toughest spot of all the top seeds in qualifiers.

Group H
ITA C : 4/6
CZE : 3/6
UK B : 1/6

And we finish with this group.
Not much to say so far. CZE was the the lowest seeded from the first bracket while ITA C was the highest seeded from the third bracket, with UK B being somewhere in the middle. You would expect this group to be a balanced one and it is, perhaps UK B doing slightly worse than expected.

That's all for now, see you in the next few days!

Edited 7/11/2024 12:32:01

Great update Rento!

I bet Germany A and B would have difficulties to qualify against C and D, too

Edited 7/11/2024 12:58:09

Nice performance team Switzerland 🇨🇭!

We've already passed 67% completed games on Guiroma! It's going surprisingly quick.
The second round of games, on the French Brawl template, will start in 2 days, on July 16th.

Team : Points/Games completed

Group A
NL A : 11/13
FIN : 6.5/15
ANZ A : 6/11
NOR C : -2/13

NL A in clear lead.
FIN in second place by total score, although they have more games completed than ANZ A. Could have been even better if one of their players hadn't booted 2 of his games.
ANZ A only half a point behind. They have more games left than FIN, but a lot of them are against the favourites, NL A, while the Finns don't have any games left from that matchup.
NOR C is pretty much out of this competition, with only 4 players participating and one of them not joining his games.

Group B
GER D : 7/10
CAN A : 6/12
BEL : 5/7
ITA D : 3/13

GER D still topping this group, although other teams managed to narrow the margin. Compared to the last update. GER D's win rate fell from 80% to 70% (which is still much higher than most people anticipated).
CAN A still in the middle with the same 50% win rate.
BEL turns out to be the slowest team in this competition atm, but they are actually first in this group when sorted by win rate, with 5/7 being just a little bit ahead of GER D.
ITA D got some good wins here and there, but it could be to little to challenge even the third place.

Group C
ITA A : 10/11
NOR A : 6/8
CAN B : 3/10
POL C : 0/9

Group C is in the running for the Most Boring Group Award.
These teams have really fortified their positions. The gaps between each of them start to be very visible.
NOR A got a single win against ITA A and a single loss against CAN B. Apart from that, every team won all their games against their lower ranked opponents in this group.
We'll see, maybe French Brawl will shake this group up a bit!

Group D
SWI : 12/12
POL D : 3.5/10
ITA B : 3/8
ANZ C : 1/12

The only thing that changed since the last update is the Swiss team getting two more wins. I wonder how long they can keep their 100% win rate!
Nothing else happened, so not much more to say either.

Group E
EAS : 13/15
USA C : 6/13
ANZ B : 6/16
UK C : 5/16

Situation the same as previously. Asians in first place, with the other teams in a very close fight for second place.

Group F
GER C : 9/10
NL B : 4/8
USA D : 1/10

With two teams promoting, it really looks like GER C already secured their spot in the next phase. I just can't see USA D catching up to them.
But can USA D at least catch up to NL B? We'll see in the next round.

Group G
NOR B : 6/10
IRL : 4/10
POL B : 4/10

Now it's time for everyone's favourite group. Let's take a closer look.
NOR B slighly ahead in the first place. One of their players was a very late addition to the team. So far his inclusion hasn't paid off, with him losing both his games. I like analysing situations like these. The rules regarding penalties for incomplete lineups make it really interesting in my opinion. It really isn't obvious whether a full team is better than a 4-player team.
IRL caught up to POL B, and that despite IRL's captain booting a game.
With IRL and POL B being tied in points, IRL would be the one to promote in this situation. As was mentioned on the kickoff stream, the main teams (meaning, the A teams) have priority in situations like these.

Group H
ITA C : 5/8
CZE : 4/8
UK B : 2/8

Each team got exactly one win and one loss since the last update. What more is there to say, a very balanced group, with UK B being only slightly behind.

3/4 groups would be nice. If Germany gets 4/4 that’s really impressive. Too bad about the nonjoins, something to learn from. US C was strong enough to bounce back, US D is struggling a bit but it’s not over at all

The second qualifying round has started! Games on the French Brawl template have already been created.

As for the previous round, over 80% games have finished. Let's take a look.

Team : Points/Games completed

Group A
NL A : 13/16
ANZ A : 7/13
FIN : 6.5/15
NOR C : -1/16

The Dutch fortify their lead.
ANZ A gets ahead of FIN again, but the difference is tiny. French Brawl games between these two teams will be fun to follow. Let's just hope for no boots from FIN this time.
Although still with negative points, NOR C won their second game. Actually, not every team managed to win 2 points in this competition so far, so there are some positives.

Group B
GER D : 10/14
CAN A : 7/15
BEL : 5/10
ITA D : 5/15

GER D is still looking strong!
It really looks like one of the A teams here is going to be eliminated.
CAN A lost 3 games through non-joins on Guiroma. On one hand it's probably frustrating for them, on the other hand, with this issue solved, they should theoretically do better on French Brawl.
BEL remains the slowest team in qualifiers. The increased game count for their players could potentially have a negative effect on quality of play.
ITA D is in the last place all the time. But if you look closely, the gap between them and CAN A is just two points. Can they manage an epic comeback? Will we have two D teams qualifying from this group?

Group C
ITA A : 15/18
NOR A : 12/16
CAN B : 4/14
POL C : 1/16

This really looks over. I don't see how either ITA A or NOR A could fail to qualify at this point. The question is, who will win this group? So far, the Italians have been in the lead this whole time, but the Nordics are keeping up.
In other news, POL C managed to get their first win.

Group D
SWI : 15/15
POL D : 6.5/14
ITA B : 3/11
ANZ C : 1/14

The Swiss still with perfect record. Are they really so strong, or is this group so weak? Probably a mix of the two.
POL D get 3 wins with only 1 loss since the last update, increasing their lead over the 3rd place. It's really looking good for the Poles!

Group E
EAS : 13/16
USA C : 6/13
ANZ B : 6/16
UK C : 6/17

EAS looking really comfortable, and then we have the other three teams tied with six wins each. USA C look like favourites though. They have the highest number of remaining games, and they resolved their problem with non-joins (by replacing the non-joining player with an infamous booter). We will see how this turns out!

Group F
GER C : 9/10
NL B : 5/9
USA D : 1/11

GER C still doing incredible. Looks like POL D and Poldi will both qualify.
NL B gets an important win over USA D. The margin widens.

Group G
NOR B : 7/11
IRL : 5/11
POL B : 4/12

IRL also gets a crucial win over their direct opponents, POL B. Rumors say that the Irish player was only 20 mins away from booting this game.

Group H
ITA C : 5/10
CZE : 4/8
UK B : 4/10

A ridiculously close group. Just one head-to-head win could turn the last place team into the first place team.

Exactly 50% of French Brawl games have finished, and in total over 70% of qualifying games are done! It's time for another update.
This time I'll start from group H.

Three-team-groups: max 24 points.

Group H
CZE : 9/17
ITA C : 8/18
UK B : 8/19

This group just can't be any more equal than that! And it's like that from the very start! It will be very fun to follow until all games are done.
CZE has the slightest of advantages, with just 1 more win and 1 game more to play than the runner-ups, ITA C.

Group G
NOR B : 12/21- qualified
IRL : 10/20 - qualified
POL B : 7/21 - eliminated

This one also was a very close group, and also the quickest one. IRL has a 3 point lead over POL B with 3 games left for POL B to play, so the best the Poles could do would be to tie for 2nd place. But the Irishmen would win the tiebreaker anyway, so it doesn't matter.
Good effort by POL B, and congrats NOR B and IRL for qualifying to the next phase!

Group F
GER C : 13/17 - qualified
NL B : 9/16
USA D : 3/17

GER C doesn't let go of that first place. The gap between them and NL B was 5 points already ten days ago, and the Dutch won't let it grow bigger. Will they catch up in the end?
USA D isn't exactly eliminated yet, but they would need to win ALL their 7 games and have NL B lose ALL their 8 games to qualify. That's got to be impossible.

Four-team-groups: max 36 points

Group E
EAS : 27/32 - qualified
USA C : 13/25
ANZ B : 8/26
UK C : 8/29

The Asians have already secured the first place in this group! Congrats!
USA C have bounced up from their mediocre start, doing much better on French Brawl than they did on Guiroma. With 7 FB games won out of 9, they finally start looking like the top seeded team that they were!
This of course comes at a cost of the other teams, ANZ B and UK C. The fight for 2nd promotion spot used to be very close, but now the gap widens quickly.

Group D
SWI : 26/27 - qualified
ITA B : 9/21
POL D : 8.5/25
ANZ C : 3/23

The Swiss have lost a game! Oh no.
Italians have quickly tripled their score from the last update and are back in 2nd place again. They even got a point off their northern neighbours.
POL D on the other hand appears to have lost their magic, winning only 2 out of 10 FB games so far.
ANZ C are not eliminated yet, but it's hard to see how they could promote from this position. They however have the important role of the kingmaker, with their games against ITA B and POL D having potential to decide the 2nd place.

Group C
ITA A : 24/28 - qualified
NOR A : 16/22
CAN B : 9/27
POL C : 2.5/29 - eliminated

The most boring group strikes again. Even the battle for 1st place is not exciting anymore. NOR A would need a miracle to win this group, and they would need an absolute disaster to not promote.
As for Canadians, they are one point away from securing 3rd place.

Group B
CAN A : 15/25
GER D : 12/22
BEL : 9/17
ITA D : 8/24

Now this is exciting! For the first time GER D loses their grip on the first place, which is now being held by Canadians.
Futhermore, the gap between GER D and BEL is tiny. Will the two A teams actually promote in the end?
As a reminder, GER D was the lowest seeded team in this whole competition, disregarding the two absolute newcomers: CAN B and ANZ C. Their run this season was impressive, even if they fail to promote in the end.
ITA D is still very much in the race for promotion, although they're slowly running out of games. Perhaps a bit overshadowed by GER D, it's still worth noting how Italy's D team is keeping pace with the A teams in this group.

Group A
NL A : 21/27 - qualified
ANZ A : 16/23
FIN : 11/27
NOR C : -4/29 - eliminated

NL A shows everyone why they are THE top seeded team in qualifiers, easily promoting from this pretty tough group.
ANZ A also looking very good. Promotion is very close.
FIN got problems with boots again and are in a very tough spot. I feel bad for them for ending up in this difficult group, but they are not making it easier for themselves either. They got some organisational hiccups this season, and they didn't participate last year at all. I really hope to see them back next time. It's not unlikely that their performance this season will improve their seeding situation next year.
NOR C still under 0 points. Still, thanks for participating! I hope you guys had fun too.

That's it for the qualifiers for now. What about the next phase?
Like announced earlier, the next round will be played on the official 1v1 ladder template - Strategic Modified Medium Earth. The games will start somewhen at the start of August, not necessarily on August 1st like it was scheduled. We plan to have another stream to kickoff the next phase. The last one with Min34 and Texx was great, so I encourage everyone to check it out when it happens. Just follow this thread or join the Discord server to make sure you catch it live. https://discord.gg/B4BbM8tP8H

Somebody stop Swiss

Thanks for the update, Rento!

Things are progressing quickly, with over 80% games already completed, including 67% French Brawl games.

Group H
CZE : 11/20 - qualified
UK B : 11/23 - qualified
ITA C : 8/21 - eliminated

The super close group is already decided! Three losses and no wins for ITA C since the last update and Italians lose their chance to promote. Thanks for the exciting fight!
There are 4 games left in this group and all of them include the Czechs. They need to win just one to win this group.

Group G
NOR B : 13/22 - qualified
IRL : 10/21 - qualified
POL B : 7/21 - eliminated

NOR B wins a game against IRL, increasing their lead. They will win this group unless they lose out (2 games) and IRL wins out (3).

Group F
GER C : 14/19 - qualified
NL B : 9/16 - qualified
USA D : 4/19 - eliminated

USA D had slim chances since some time already, and now they are officially eliminated. Better luck next time!

Group E
EAS : 29/34 - first place
USA C : 15/28
ANZ B : 10/30
UK C : 8/32 - eliminated

USA C are keeping their comfortable 5-point lead over the third place.
UK C lose their chance to promote. But will they manage to take the third place from ANZ B?

Group D
SWI : 29/30 - first place
ITA B : 11/26
POL D : 10.5/27
ANZ C : 4/29 - eliminated

Man, what a battle between ITA B and POL D! Just when it started looking like ITA B has the edge, the Poles got 2 straight wins, including one against the Italians. Who would have thought that of all the Polish teams, it would be the D team fighting to the end?
Italians have just seen their C team eliminated, they would be disappointed to lose another one.

Group C
ITA A : 29/34 - first place
NOR A : 19/30 - second place
CAN B : 9/28 - third place
POL C : 3.5/32 - fourth place

Congrats to the newcomers, CAN B, for beating POL C pretty convincingly and grabbing the third place!

Group B
CAN A : 18/28
GER D : 13/25
BEL : 11/21
ITA D : 8/26

The only thing clear here is that ITA D can't win this group anymore. Anything else is possible! The top three all have the same potential of 24-26 max points. Italians are behind with 18 max points, which could still be enough to promote, theoretically.

Group A
NL A : 21/29 - qualified
ANZ A : 18/26
FIN : 15/31
NOR C : -4/32 - fourth place

The Finns are carrying out a full-out siege on second place! Five-win-streak, including two direct games, and even their booting player appears to have stopped booting!
Still, ANZ A has a pretty comfortable lead. Just 3 more wins would have them qualify.
Interesting fact is that their player, smwokeweep42002 aka Texx, is the only player in qualifiers to have not yet completed a single game. This means that out of their 10 remaining games, 6 depend on that single player.

Edited 7/26/2024 20:10:07

Weep is stalling … BAN

Quality moves take quality time... at least, that's what Texx tells me.
Also Tacky when/why did you join Outlaws?

Edited 7/28/2024 10:43:51

Outlaws for life!!

We're quickly approaching 90% completion in qualifiers! Only 55 out of 468 games left.

I will change the overview format a bit, showing MAX POINTS instead of completed games.

Team : Points | Max Points

Group A
NL A : 22 | 28 - qualified
ANZ A : 20 | 27 - qualified
FIN : 17 | 18 - third place
NOR C : -4 | -2 - fourth place

After a great battle, Finns must settle for the third place in the group of death. To illustrate how well they did, their worst player had "only" an average run, winning 3 out of 7 games, and they just had a 7-win-streak. It's pretty likely that this would have them qualify from some other groups.

Maybe it's unfair on one hand, but on the other, this whole qualifier stage would be boring and pointless if there was no battles like this one, right? And if there's a battle, there's gonna be a winner and a loser.

Congrats NL A and ANZ A for qualifying. You still have this fight for 1st place going on. NL's lead may appear small, but with only a few games left, even a small lead is substantial.

Group B
CAN A : 19 | 23
GER D : 15 | 23
BEL : 13 | 23
ITA D : 11 | 17

The max point column says it all. The top 3 are even.
Of course in such scenario, the team with most completed games has the advantage, statistically. And so CAN A is quite firmly ahead. The quickest way for them to qualify would be to win 2 more direct games against BEL.

But that's just theoretising, and the current situation is that no team has qualified yet and no team is eliminated yet. Including ITA D.

Group C
ITA A : 29 | 31 - first place
NOR A : 21 | 24 - second place
CAN B : 10 | 14 - third place
POL C : 4.5 | 7.5 - fourth place

Group completed. I guess these few remaining games for ITA A and NOR A could influence the seeding for the next phase or something.

Group D
SWI : 30 | 35 - first place
ITA B : 13 | 20
POL D : 11.5 | 19.5
ANZ C : 4 | 8 - fourth place

The fight for 2nd place continues. ITA B ahead atm, but the Poles haven't said their last word yet. I'm pretty sure there are some more wins coming for them.

Group E
EAS : 30 | 31 - first place
USA C : 18 | 20 - second place
ANZ B : 10 | 14 - eliminated
UK C : 10 | 11 - eliminated

This group is almost completed. ANZ B needs just 1 win to secure third place.
But maybe they'll fail to do so and UK C grabs it in the end? That would be an interesting twist.

Group F
GER C : 15 | 19 - qualified
NL B : 10 | 17 - qualified
USA D : 4 | 7 -eliminated

With group B quickening the pace a bit since the last update, it's NL B that gets the title of the slowest team so far.
Not that it matters, this whole qualifiers stage is going quicker than anticipated anyway.

As for the results, what's left is the fight for the first place, and GER C have a huge lead at this point.

Group G
NOR B : 13 | 15 - qualified
IRL : 12 | 13 - qualified
POL B : 7 | 8 - eliminated

As more results come, POL B stays further and further behind.
NOR B with 2 games left. If they win any, they win the group.

Group H
CZE : 13 | 15 - first place
UK B : 11 | 12 - second place
ITA C : 8 | 9 - eliminated

The Czechs win group H of the qualifiers! Congrats!
They have an interesting team. Only 5 players, but quite balanced, with everyone having at least 40% win rate. I see a lot of similarities with FIN. I wonder what would the result be if they were to switch places in qualifiers?
But a huge difference that separates the two is that the Czechs have participated in every season so far, with some good results here and there, and they managed (barely) to get seeded in the top bracket, while for Finland it's only their second independent start ever.

Congrats for UK for having two teams in the next phase.

Thanks ITA C for a good fight until the end!

I reckon if Finland swapped places with the worst team in each group, they’d promote from every group except C.