Fantastic recap! Thanks Leon! Group C is deceptively tight due to matchups. You wouldn’t be able to tell with a glance of the scoreboard.

I absolutely love your update, Leon!

I'll make a general update sometime soon. We're at 58,2% completion.

About FRA B. Yes, they lost 2 players after round 2, but these players only scored 1 point each over the course of 2 rounds. So I don't think it's an 'implosion' that would explain why they went from 4-8 and 3-9 to 0-10 against NL B. I guess the Dutch were simply the strongest opponents on their way so far.

I don’t know what other word to use. The pundits on Min’s channel were talking about whether any of the four qualifier teams could edge out France for the 2nd spot in this group. It turns out all four can… by 10+ games. This is a disaster.

Great recap Leon! I think the 4 teams are really balanced and 1 win/loose or boot might decide the whole ending!

There shouldn't be any boots. That's just a USA thing.

Thanks for the Group C
special edition, Leon!
Go ANZ!

Update!
We're at 67% group phase completion.
Rounds 1 and 2 are now fully completed, Round 3 is almost 90% done, Round 4 is near 50%.

The final round of this stage will start in a day or two, so if you still want to make some subs, let me know quick!
The template will be Biomes of Americas.

Team : Pts | MP

Group A
FRA A | 26 | 49
EAS | 21 | 45
NOR B | 18 | 42
GER B | 17 | 42
IRL | 16 | 36
ITA B | 5 | 27

FRA A
R1: 7-5 vs IRL on MME
R2: 11-1 vs ITA B on Africa
R3: 5-5 vs EAS on Numenor, 2 to play
R4: 3-0 vs GER B on Volcano, 9 to play
R5: 0-0 vs NOR B on Biomes, 12 to play

EAS
R1: 7-5 vs GER B on MME
R2: 8-4 vs IRL on Africa
R3: 5-5 vs FRA A on Numenor, 2 to play
R4: 1-1 vs NOR B on Volcano, 10 to play
R5: 0-0 vs ITA B on Biomes, 12 to play

NOR B
R1: 11-1 vs ITA B on MME
R2: 8-4 vs GER B on Africa
R3: 6-4 vs IRL on Numenor, 2 to play
R4: 1-1 vs EAS on Volcano, 10 to play
R5: 0-0 vs FRA A on Biomes, 12 to play

Upon taking a closer look at results from FRA A, EAS, and NOR B, one will notice that they are almost identical to each other. Draws in direct matchups and nearly identical results against teams from outside the top 3.

This definitely doesn't favour the NOR B team who play with fewer players and therefore get assigned penalty points. These add up and as a result NOR B is right now closer to the 4th place than they are to 2nd. They are left with games against EAS and FRA A. To advance, they need to absolutely destroy one of these teams and get a solid result against the other.

As for the fight for 1st place, FRA A is currently ahead of EAS, but when you consider the 5th round matchups, I'd say they're tied. Asians definitely have the potential for a comeback.
But both these teams also have potential to miss promotion if they take NOR B too lightly.

GER B
R1: 5-7 vs EAS on MME
R2: 4-8 vs NOR B on Africa
R3: 8-0 vs ITA B on Numenor, 4 to play
R4: 0-3 vs FRA A on Volcano, 9 to play
R5: 0-0 vs IRL on Biomes, 12 to play

IRL
R1: 5-7 vs FRA A on MME
R2: 4-8 vs EAS on Africa
R3: 4-6 vs NOR B on Numenor, 2 to play
R4: 3-3 vs ITA B on Volcano, 6 to play
R5: 0-0 vs GER B on Biomes, 12 to play

At this point it seems that GER B and IRL are not gonna make it to the quarterfinals. Neither of them have won any matchups apart from ones against ITA B. However, they have definitely put up a good fight in this group. They will meet on Biomes next round. Promotion is not mathematically impossible, but would require some crazy stuff to happen.

ITA B
R1: 1-11 vs NOR B on MME
R2: 1-11 vs FRA A on Africa
R3: 0-8 vs GER B on Numenor, 4 to play
R4: 3-3 vs IRL on Volcano, 6 to play
R5: 0-0 vs EAS on Biomes, 12 to play

That 3:3 on Volcano gives some hope for a strong performance. Interestingly, despite being last with only half the points of CZE (5th place in group D), the Italians still have theoretical chances to reach the quarterfinals, unlike the Czechs.

Group B
SWI | 25 | 45
NOR A | 21 | 40
UK A | 20 | 41
USA C | 20 | 36
GER A | 19 | 40
NL A | 15 | 38

SWI
R1: 9-3 vs GER A on MME
R2: 6-6 vs NOR A on Africa
R3: 7-5 vs UK A on Numenor
R4: 3-1 vs NL A on Volcano, 8 to play
R5: 0-0 vs USA C on Biomes, 12 to play

The Swiss have started super strong with a 9-3 win against Germany. That would be a win even without the 2 boots from GER A. And then they have not lost a matchup so far. They are the closest to promotion from all the teams participating here, but all things considered, 5 wins advantage is not huge. They still need to perform well to reach quarterfinals.
Switzerland definitely has some monsters in their squad. Automatix 13-0. Terence Kill 11-1. Going undefeated in the group of death? That's iNsAnE.

NOR A
R1: 5-7 vs UK A on MME
R2: 6-6 vs SWI on Africa
R3: 3-6 vs NL A on Numenor, 3 to play
R4: 7-1 vs USA C on Volcano, 4 to play
R5: 0-0 vs GER A on Biomes, 12 to play

After losing their star player after the qualifiers, I did not expect NOR A to fight for promotion. But here we are. A narrow loss against the reigning champions. A tie with the group leader. Round 3 was a bit worse for them, but they compensated by smashing USA C hard.

UK A
R1: 7-5 vs NOR A on MME
R2: 5-7 vs USA C on Africa
R3: 5-7 vs SWI on Numenor
R4: 3-0 vs GER A on Volcano, 9 to play
R5: 0-0 vs NL A on Biomes, 12 to play

Current champions they may be, but without Marcus Aurelius in their lineup, they are just a mere shadow of what this team used to be. Forced to rely on a tier 2 player to do most of the work (Corn Silver 7-1), they keep close to 50% winrate throughout the group phase.

USA C
R1: 8-4 vs NL A on MME
R2: 7-5 vs UK A on Africa
R3: 4-8 vs GER A on Numenor
R4: 1-7 vs NOR A on Volcano, 4 to play
R5: 0-0 vs SWI on Biomes, 12 to play

Very good first 2 rounds. Third a bit worse, fourth a disaster. Or maybe, fourth round is the only one going like expected? Being the only C team in this group of death, they were supposed to be destroyed, yet there were in top 2 of most of the time. They still have a better chance to qualify than USA B at this point. Actually, USA C just lost a player, and they chose to move Johnny Silverhand yet again from USA B to C to help, reducing the B chances even futher. Makes sense, I guess?
Their matchup against the Swiss will decide, although some comeback against NOR A on Volcano would also help.

GER A
R1: 3-9 vs SWI on MME
R2: 8-4 vs NL A on Africa
R3: 8-4 vs USA C on Numenor
R4: 0-3 vs UK A on Volcano, 9 to play
R5: 0-0 vs NOR A on Biomes, 12 to play

GER A had the worst start of all the German teams. Now, looking at all the groups, they could turn out to be the last hope for Germans to have any team in the quarterfinals. They were on the right track with solid wins on Africa and Numenor, but guess what, UK wants to qualify too.
There appears to be some urban legend about Germans' love for the Biomes template. We'll see about that.

NL A
R1: 4-8 vs USA C on MME
R2: 4-8 vs GER A on Africa
R3: 6-3 vs NOR A on Numenor, 3 to play
R4: 1-3 vs SWI on Volcano, 8 to play
R5: 0-0 vs UK A on Biomes, 12 to play

NL A may be last in this group but let's be real, they would annihilate all the other 6th placed teams. And if you look even closer, their max points is pretty much on par with everyone else in this group, they are just the slowest. Time for an epic comeback perhaps?

Fun fact: in the last 3 seasons of the revived Nations' Cup, the Dutch have met UK A twice as well as GER A, SWI and USA C, and never directly won against any of them.

---
Updates for groups C and D coming tomorrow.

Edited 9/25/2024 16:54:03

USA C is 1-7 vs NOR A, not NL A.

^thanks, fixed.

The 5th and final round of this phase have started!
The quarterfinals can only start when all group winners and runner-ups are decided, so that will take some time. I expect around 3 weeks.

Group C
USA A | 33 | 51
CAN A | 24 | 41
NL B | 22 | 42
GER C | 20 | 37
ANZ A | 18 | 38
FRA B | 5 | 23

People say that Group B is the most interesting one, but I think this one is a close second. TheGreatLeon did a fantastic update on this group. Not a lot happened since then, so I won't be analysing this in too much detail.

USA A is still dominating. And that's without their probably most successful player, Octane. I'm really curious whether he will be added to the lineup for the knockout phase.

CAN A in second spot, but has the toughest opponent on Biomes. ANZ A only 5th, but has the easiest one. NL B and GER C in between them get matched against themselves. These two were playing in the same qualifying group. GER C finished with 19 points, NL B with only 11. But currently it's the Dutch who have the point advantage.

FRA B in the last place. Interestingly, Phaeril gets moved from FRA A to B for the last round. At this point the success of the A team clearly has priority, so I guess he just doesn't like Biomes?

USA A
R1: 9-3 vs ANZ A on MME
R2: 10-2 vs NL B on Africa
R3: 8-3 vs GER C on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 6-1 vs FRA B on Volcano, 5 to play
R5: 0-0 vs CAN A on Biomes, 12 to play

CAN A
R1: 5-7 vs NL B on MME
R2: 9-3 vs FRA B on Africa
R3: 5-6 vs ANZ A on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 5-3 vs GER C on Volcano, 4 to play
R5: 0-0 vs USA A on Biomes, 12 to play

NL B
R1: 7-5 vs CAN A on MME
R2: 2-10 vs USA A on Africa
R3: 11-0 vs FRA B on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 2-3 vs ANZ A on Volcano, 7 to play
R5: 0-0 vs GER C on Biomes, 12 to play

GER C
R1: 8-4 vs FRA B on MME
R2: 6-6 vs ANZ A on Africa
R3: 3-8 vs USA A on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 3-5 vs CAN A on Volcano, 4 to play
R5: 0-0 vs NL B on Biomes, 12 to play

ANZ A
R1: 3-9 vs USA A on MME
R2: 6-6 vs GER C on Africa
R3: 5-6 vs CAN A on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 3-2 vs NL B on Volcano, 7 to play
R5: 0-0 vs FRA B on Biomes, 12 to play

FRA B
R1: 4-8 vs GER C on MME
R2: 3-9 vs CAN A on Africa
R3: 0-11 vs NL B on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 1-6 vs USA A on Volcano, 5 to play
R5: 0-0 vs ANZ A on Biomes, 12 to play

Group D
ITA A | 37 | 52
BEL | 30 | 48
POL A | 22 | 38
USA B | 20 | 36
CZE | 9 | 24
UK B | 7 | 25

ITA A
R1: 7-5 vs USA B on MME
R2: 12-0 vs UK B on Africa
R3: 8-3 vs POL A on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 10-0 vs CZE on Volcano, 2 to play
R5: 0-0 vs BEL on Biomes, 12 to play
​
With a 37-8 win-loss ratio, the Italians are currently the best performing team at this stage. They will likely be the first team to officially advance to the quarterfinals, as they are only 1 point away at the time of writing this.
On individual level they are just as impressive. CalmWaters with his 14-0 is currently the best scorer of this entire event.
They were untouchable in rounds 2-4. I'm not sure what's up with that 1st round against USA B though. They barely won that one, and that's with USA B booting 4 of their games.
Anyway, at this point they have to be considered one of the candidates for gold this season. I'm very excited to see how well they perform against the usual powerhouses like USA and France.
And since I mentioned USA A lacking Octane, I must mention that Italy didn't yet field John. Everone who followed the Managers' League knows how strong John is.

BEL
R1: 10-2 vs CZE on MME
R2: 7-5 vs POL A on Africa
R3: 7-4 vs USA B on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 6-1 vs UK B on Volcano, 5 to play
R5: 0-0 vs ITA A on Biomes, 12 to play

With a 30-12 win-loss ratio, they are the 3rd best performing team. Behind Italians and USA A, but in front of France and everyone else. I keep being surprised by them, but at this point I just have to acknowledge that they fielded a pretty damn strong lineup this season.
But! They have not qualified yet. POL A and USA B are still in the race and will do their best to achieve a near-perfect score in the last round. Looking at the results so far, it shouldn't be impossible. Belgians on the other hand will play against the Italians, wh have no weak link in their team. Not even 1 game here will be an easy win. They can't afford to relax yet.
Of course, they also have the option of destroying the Italians and winning the group. At this point, who knows what they are capable of?

POL A
R1: 9-3 vs UK B on MME
R2: 5-7 vs BEL on Africa
R3: 3-8 vs ITA A on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 6-3 vs USA B on Volcano, 3 to play
R5: 0-0 vs CZE on Biomes, 11 to play

Poor performance on Numenor, but in general their situation wouldn't be so bad if only Belgium didn't get in the way. Poland keeps getting close matches with USA B nearly every season, and having a comfortable lead on them should be enough to advance, if you asked before the games started. But as things stand, it is not enough. The players are motivated for the last round, but not all is in their hands anymore. Losing the h2h against Belgians, even though by 1 game, doesn't help in this situation.

USA B
R1: 5-7 vs ITA A on MME
R2: 8-4 vs CZE on Africa
R3: 4-7 vs BEL on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 3-6 vs POL A on Volcano, 3 to play
R5: 0-0 vs CZE on Biomes, 12 to play
​
Basically the same situation as POL A. Could have been better without all the free points they have through boots/nonjoins. But they appear to have solved that issue just in time for their games against Poland, annoyingly. Although from what I can tell, they put more faith in their C team qualifying than in their B team.

CZE
R1: 2-10 vs BEL on MME
R2: 4-8 vs USA B on Africa
R3: 8-3 vs UK B on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 0-10 vs ITA A on Volcano, 2 to play
R5: 0-0 vs POL A on Biomes, 12 to play

Solid performance in the qualifiers where they won their group. But the competition in this phase is just too tough. Honestly the gaps in score are so huge in this group they don't make sense, both at the top and at the bottom.

UK B
R1: 3-9 vs POL A on MME
R2: 0-12 vs ITA A on Africa
R3: 3-8 vs CZE on Numenor, 1 to play
R4: 1-6 vs BEL on Volcano, 5 to play
R5: 0-0 vs USA B on Biomes, 12 to play

Despite losing heavily against the Czechs, they are still able to avoid the last place, mostly thanks to CZE getting -5 penalty points for a missing player. And by 'last place' I mean places 21-24. People may forget that this event started with nearly 40 teams, and if you look at this from this perspective, reaching top20ish is seriously nothing to scoff at.

See you later.

Really weird results from this Belgian team. They lost to Canada 4-8 and drew Germany’s D team 6-6 in qualifiers to just barely squeak into the Group Stage. Admittedly, the Germany D team was stronger than one might think but that’s still not a great showing.

Now in the Group Stage they’ve won 4 straight matches and are 3rd in the world. I think Round 5 against the Italians will be a true test of who this team really is… I’m not sold at all and I think whoever comes out of Group D in 2nd will be the weakest quarterfinalist.

Belgium did much better than I expected, knocking out US B will be a frustrating experience. Nice update

Thanks for the update!


I'm REALLY proud of our team! They are the best 💪🥳 🖤💛🧡

Really weird results from this Belgian team. They lost to Canada 4-8 and drew Germany’s D team 6-6 in qualifiers to just barely squeak into the Group Stage. Admittedly, the Germany D team was stronger than one might think but that’s still not a great showing.

Now in the Group Stage they’ve won 4 straight matches and are 3rd in the world. I think Round 5 against the Italians will be a true test of who this team really is… I’m not sold at all and I think whoever comes out of Group D in 2nd will be the weakest quarterfinalist.

What you say definitely makes sense. But the same could be said about group B, right? USA C didn't show anything special in the qualifiers. So if everyone is struggling against them, does it mean the whole group is weak, or are Americans overperforming?

There's been so many unexpected results this season that I find it hard to tell. Can't wait for the quarterfinals! :)

Nice updates again!
thx for the work!
enjoying the threat ;-D

A quick and dirty update on Group C

Standings
xy-USA 37-10, 13 to play
CAN 27-22, 11 to play
----------------------
ANZ 25-24, 11 to play
NED 24-24, 12 to play
GER 23-26, 11 to play
z-FRA 10-40, 10 to play

x - will advance
y - clinched 1st
z - eliminated

Now, let's zoom in on race for 2nd and add the opponents
CAN 27-22 - 2 vs GER, 9 vs USA
----------------------
ANZ 25-24 - 4 vs NED, 7 vs FRA
NED 24-24 - 4 vs ANZ, 8 vs GER
GER 23-26 - 1 vs USA, 2 vs CAN, 8 vs NED

Finally, let's prognosticate results for the remaining rounds based on the strength of each opponent
ANZ: 25 (current) + 2.0 (NED) + 5.6 (FRA) = 32.6 (expected)
----------------------
CAN: 27 (current) + 1.1 (GER) + 2.0 (USA) = 31.1 (expected)
NED: 24 (current) + 2.0 (ANZ) + 4.1 (GER) = 30.1 (expected)
GER: 23 (current) + 0.2 (USA) + 0.9 (CAN) + 3.9 (NED) = 28.0 (expected)

In short, Canada/Netherlands/Germany need some help from France. France have started 0-5 against ANZ on Biomes and unless the bleeding stops soon, ANZ will put up a number the others can't reach.

@TheGreatLeon I'm curious how did you come up with the expected wins?

It’s an average of how the 4 countries have fared against that particular opponent. For example, the US is 30-8 against not-France, so I expect a not-France opponent to win 8/38 = 21% of games.

It’s admittedly clumsy, especially given how different an INSS template is from the other templates…

Also we (Canada) have already won two by way of forfeit since my post was written lol

We're at 82% group phase completion, so at a very advanced stage.
We also reached 1000 games completed this season! (1059 at the time of writing this). That's huge! Thanks everyone for participating!

This update will be simple and focus mainly on battles for top 2.

Group A
FRA A | 35 | 47
IRL | 27 | 34
EAS | 25 | 41
GER B | 21 | 33
NOR B | 21 | 32
ITA B | 6 | 18

France A has already advanced to the quarterfinals! Congrats! They are in good position to win group A. The only team who can surpass them are Asians.

The fight for the second promotion spot looks close, but EAS has a huge lead in max points. Most of their remaining games (11/16) are against Italy B. If they win those games, noone will stop them.

This doesn't change the fact that currently it's the Irish who hold 2nd place and it's the other teams that need to catch up.

GER B and NOR B are probably too far behind to challenge the top 2.

Italy B finishes this group in 6th place.

Group B
SWI | 33 | 44
GER A | 26 | 39
NOR A | 24 | 36
UK A | 23 | 35
USA C | 22 | 30
NL A | 17 | 31

Nothing is certain yet in this group.

The Swiss' lead looks more and more serious. With relatively few games remaining, they are definitely the favourites to finish 1st.

I think it's the first time we can point at a team and say with confidence that they hold 2nd place in this group. That team being Germany A, who are 2nd in both current points and max points.

Germany A and Nordics A meet each other on Biomes. Looking at their situation, you could say that their direct games will count double.

UK A is currently 4th. While GER A and NOR A lose points to each other, the British will fight against NL A. They surely hope to score a lot of points against the 'weakest' team, but let's not forget that this group has no punching bags.

USA C had a fantastic start, but unfortunately, they can't advance to the quarterfinals anymore. The Swiss are already out of reach, while GER A and NOR A will share 11 points among them, so at least one of them will be out of reach too.

Interestingly, NL A are theoretically in a better spot, as they have 1 more max point than USA C and a winning h2h against NOR A. But in reality, they are just 1 game away from being out as well.

Group C
USA A | 38 | 48
CAN A | 29 | 36
ANZ A | 25 | 36
NL B | 24 | 36
GER C | 24 | 34
FRA B | 7 | 17

USA A has not only advanced, but secured the 1st spot in the group. Congrats!

CAN A still in 2nd place. They just got 2 lucky boot wins against USA A. It's actually a pretty big deal. But to be fair, USA A had a boot or 2 against everyone, including ANZ A. It's unlikely that Canadians will advance if they don't score some normal wins against USA.

ANZ A is already in 3rd. Their plan to dominate 5th round is going well, with 5:0 against FRA B currently. They still have 4 ongoing games against NL B, these are also very important.

NL B and GER C meet each other on Biomes. A draw won't satisfy anyone. Second place is still in reach, but one of these two must dominate round 5. Currently Germans lead 3:1.

FRA B finishes 6th.

On a side note, Octane got subbed into USA A for the quarterfinal match. Americans are definitely aiming for gold this season.

Group D
ITA A | 39 | 51
BEL | 33 | 47
POL A | 30 | 36
USA B | 25 | 34
UK B | 9 | 20
CZE | 9 | 15

Italy A advances to the quarterfinals. Congrats! They were actually the 1st team to accomplish that. All that remains is to defend 1st place against the Belgians in their direct matchup on Biomes.

Belgium are very close to promoting too. All it takes for them is to win their 3 remaining games against UK B. If they fail at that, they still have 11 chances to score against Italy. And that's assuming that POL A wins out. Belgium may actually not need to win anything anymore to advance.
If we're talking about 1st place, Belgium would need to win 4 games against Italians just to get on equal footing, and then around half the games after that. So something like 8:4 at least. Seems hard.

Poland took the 5th round seriously and already got 7:0 lead on Czechs. But even 12:0 might not be enough at this point.

USA B are in an even worse spot. They're just 1 game away from being eliminated.

UK B and CZE are tied at 9 points. The tiebreker would go to Czechs, but UK B has 5 more games left to play.

-------

A few words about the knockout rounds.

As for the start date, it's reasonable to expect it to start around October 17th. That's 3 weeks after Biomes game were created. From my experience and NC organiser, that should be enough time to complete close to all the games, especially since Biomes games tend to be shorter than average. I will be monitoring the game completion carefully and make frequent updates on that.

The format is following:
Each team selects a champion/captain (which is a separate role from the team organiser. Can be the same person, can be a different one).
13 games against the opposing team.
Your players will play 2 games each: 1 on Numenor and 1 on Guiroma (for quarterfinals*).
The 13th game is captain vs captain. Captains can veto 3 templates out of 7 (French Brawl, Guiroma, MME, Africa Ultima, Numenor, Volcano, Biomes).
You don't know your opponent vetoes. The captain's game will be played on a random template that wasn't vetoed by either side.

Teams can change their captains and vetoes for futher rounds.
*Templates for semifinals are French Brawl and Volcano Island. For the final game it's Biomes and MME.

Please ask questions if you have any! :)

Thanks for the update, Rento!
Great to see how close most of these groups are, it makes it an exciting event!

Edited 10/2/2024 07:11:03