Since everyone is talking about it anyways, let's discuss the standings. I was gonna wait until tomorrow (Last week not many games had finished, but this week is different). To properly analyze what's going on I'm going to revert to my old table and talk about the podium, relegation spot, and rank 1.

Clan    Points      Win%    Max Points   Games Left   Tourn. Wins  Rank
GG       125       73.08%      189          14             3      1st-5th
Apex     117       68.00%      189          16             1      1st-6th
French   132       63.79%      169           8             0      1st-3rd
Blitz     75       44.00%      149          16             0      1st-7th
WG        77       42.59%      131          12             1      2nd-7th
Lynx      74       38.18%      124          11             0      3rd-7th   
AHoL      44       22.81%       85           9             0      4th-7th  

So, what we have here is a French that has half the games left than Apex. Lynx is 1 game away from being out of podium contention, so I think the podium is very clear right now:

Apex, GG, French.

The question is: Is French a contender for 1st place, or not?

The answer is not an easy one. French did something similar last season, they played their league games very quickly and ended up inflated in standings, ultimately taking 4th. 4th isn't even possible for them now, but even so 1st is statistically away from their grasp. Why do I say this?

Clan League 5 was won by Apex with 190 or so points (I'm locked out of the spreadsheet now, but it was 190 or higher)

Clan League 6 was won by Apex with 170 points.

This Clan League will be won with less points, but it won't be another 20 point gap, it's likely a 10 point gap this time.. so French have to go 7-1 to statistically win the season, and they have yet to play some of their tougher matchups. With a win percentage of roughly 60%, it is not likely they will pull it off. Though French has proven a LOT this season, and we need to take that in consideration.

WG was a LOCK for the podium for most people. How could a clan which only improved its members fall down so hard? Falker underperformed, Tenshi went inactive, they are playing without Ineffable, sure. However, that doesn't mean they should be struggling as hard as they are now. The people that said WG could hopefully take podium, it's time for a reality check. The games that Darkpie is dropping for Lynx is NOT locking them in relegation, and that is SCARY.

Lynx is the scariest team right now, because they hold the fate of Blitz and WG with the remaining 8 games they have that don't include Darkpie. If they win more WG matchups, WG will relegate. If they win more Blitz matchups, Blitz will relegate if they also lose against podium clans.

Reality check: This season is far more unpredictable than what we thought.

Who has the edge: Apex or GG?

Historically, Apex has outperformed GG in 2v2 and 3v3, so Apex has the edge. Apex came into this season prepared for a fight, and we got exactly what we prepared for. However, this isn't last season. Last season Apex won with a 3-4 game lead. Realistically? This is gonna be decided completely on 1-2 games. So even though Apex may have the edge, (more games, favorable matchups) it's not even close to over.

I am trying to be as fair as possible in analyzing the data that we have, if I have said something you disagree with, the data is all there for you to look at, (outside of season 5's data which we're all locked out of atm) so prove me wrong if you can.

Edited 12/21/2015 21:19:55

screw statistics, the force is with us



Edited 12/21/2015 21:52:40

I don't know how Apex could be place before GG in this graphic. Even max points, better %, more points... anyway, this has no importance.

For french, I said we will need to got 10 or 11 wins on our 3v3 to get the Clan League. Now we cannot get more looses. By the way, I'm really surprised and disapointed to see the game against Lynx got surrend, with a not so bad possibility of win for us, and even without the agreement of all the three players... It's not like that we could win a Clan League. I continue to think our 3v3 roasters are the bests and it should have been the difference, but with 2 games with IA in picks against Apex and Lynx, and a fast surrenders...

GG just have to make it. Take a 10 point game against Apex in 3v3, and be stronger than they used to in the past in multiplayer games, and they can really take the trophy.

was not a surprise for me to see french clan fighting for first place even if most people underestimated them ( the underdogs =) ) but they end up demonstrating their breadth of skills with a good showing in 2v2 and 3V3 ,and for lynx g a to very bad result in this league as darkpie got booted in most of his games =( but at the end may be GG gonna win this league as they have the biggest win rates and more games to do =)

So, by rooting for GG I get to root for both the team most likely to win and the underdog?

I'll take that offer! It's like NBA Playoffs 2015 all over again!

@Phaeril: I believe that the sort atm in the spreadsheet is based on max points, then alphabetically. I can't control the sort (it's locked, ask Chris to do it), but you will notice I put GG above Apex in the table because I am aware they have the lead atm. :)

The graph sorts on one field, google sheet limitation.

I just think next season will be even more interesting :)

Not much has happened, just wanted to remind how close of a race it is in relegation and between the top 3.

AHoL is guaranteed relegation, but the other 2 groups of 3 are incredibly close.

Edited 12/30/2015 22:33:35

I still have faith in Ahol.

Kenny Apex? Lolowut? Are you Sirius?

gogogo!!

FYI, we beat GG on 3v3 EU WR, 3v3 EU SR and Guiroma 2v2 since the last update you posted, so I would guess the standings might change a lot (at least for them vs apex and French).

Sorry, posted this under wrong account - this is ChrisCMU

Edited 1/5/2016 22:46:12

We must hope that Blitz shockingly loses all of its players to Masters, and NoobSchool hijacks Apex, for Ahol to continue! Go AHoL!

Any update coming? i think we have reached a threshold point in the Clan League's race for 1st. Very interesting turn of events. The race for the 1st place is tighter and more uncertain than ever. I'd be interested if you still think your previous analysis is still holding up.

Edited 1/13/2016 12:45:25

Any update Lolo?

I've been holding out because I want to see a clearer picture, (some clans have finished many more games than others, so it's hard to tell exactly where everyone is in their group of 3 atm)

Clan    Points      Win%    Max Points   Games Left   Tourn. Wins  Rank
Apex     136       65.52%      173           8             1      1st-3rd
French   146       65.57%      169           5             0      1st-3rd
GG       133       65.57%      157           5             3      1st-4th
Blitz     88       44.64%      135           9             0      4th-6th
WG       103       47.54%      126           5             1      4th-6th
Lynx      91       40.98%      116           5             0      4th-6th   
AHoL      49       22.81%       58           2             0      7th-7th  

So yeah, it's super close. So close 1 game can decide it for both brackets, but there's some misleading info here. Blitz is not in a better position than WG, and Lynx probably has a better chance than Blitz does at not relegating. It's weird.

As for the top 3, that's anyone's guess at this point. If French drop any of their next 5, it gives a significant advantage to Apex. If GG win matchups vs French (are there any left?), then they can knock French into 3rd.. but have a hard time catching Apex since I think none of their remaining matchups are with Apex.

I don't know what to say other than AHoL is definitely relegated lol.

Wow GG really died on the 3v3s.

Lots of boots :(

Sad to see how many boots there were this season.

Unfortunately, Darkpie went inactive for Lynx, likely costing us 30+ points. This was our mistake for putting him in four tournaments, and we suffered for it. Hopefully we can manage to finish in the top 5, but it's going to be rough from this point.

I would like to say a big thanks to the GG and Apex teams in one of our 3v3 tournaments, who are allowing us to make up a game each in which Darkpie was booted, allowing a different Lynx member to play in his place.

I know AHOL was booted in many games; boots hurt them even more than it did Lynx I believe. It seems GG has lot a few games off of boots as well. I know French had a player booted on picks against us in a 3v3, and this may hurt their placement.

Perhaps there were more that I missed seeing. Ironically, it seems that the clan that is getting booted the least is Apex, who has historically been known to be booted constantly.

Disappointing season; hope to see less boots next season. Big shoutout to the French; it's awesome to see you guys doing so well!

It's a shame Lynx is likely to be relegated on boots, but watch out for us in the future! We learned our lesson. I hope AHOL can also come back from their boots next season, and make it back to A soon.

Assuming the standings stay right now, it looks like Group A next season will be Masters, Apex, WG, Blitz, Turtles, French, and GG. It should be a very strong season, and interesting to see.