Week 8 Summary:
Some interesting things I've noticed in the Horse Race:
- Lu Fredd is crushing 2v2 right now with a substantial lead over the other clans. This 2v2 lead is the reason they lead the division as their 1v1 and 3v3 scores are more or less the same as the other clans.
- The race for last between Hawks and Dutch Forever has tightened significantly. The edge still goes to Dutch Forever but Hawks has been playing a bit better lately.
- The max points between 1st and 5th has narrowed significantly to 21 points!
- The win rates are differentiating more and more though the race still is quite tight. At least we don't have 4 clans with win rates less than 3% apart.
Now that we have 2 months of data, some interesting trends have emerged. Only three clans have lead this division: CORP, M'Hunters and Lu Fredd.
- CORP had their cocky moment early on (somewhere around pages 5-10 if I remember correctly) but have fallen back.
- M'Hunters looked like the clan to dominate but has grown slower then other clans but has a respectable score overall. M'Hunters has alternated between growing and week long periods of stagnation.
- ILLUMINATI▲ has never lead or come very close to leading, oscillating between narrowing the gap between 1st and 2nd and falling back.
- General Chous proved to be the slow and steady clan, starting late and climbing up towards CORP.
- Hawks and Dutch Forever started OK in 1v1 but are dying in team games as they have won but a handful of points in the across 2v2 and 3v3.
Not a lot of games finished this week (only 7). Only ILLUMINATI▲ (3-1) managed double digit points with three clans getting no points; M'Hunters and General Chous (0-0)did not finish a game while Dutch Forever (0-4) lost all their games.
Lu Fredd is looking to pass the 2/3rd's win rate mark. It has been elusive and fleeting that a clan has past that threshold. ILLUMINATI▲ and M'Hunters aren't very far behind though they are about 20-25 points behind Lu Fredd which can mostly be attributed to Lu Fredd finishing more games then the other two clans.
Now, I haven't made any predicitions this season. I have been active in warlight for only 1 year now and only been in management for ILLUMINATI▲ for a short period. Only a few months ago did I start looking outside of my own clan. I only knew the generalizations people have about the clans (ex. CORP is bad at strategy, which is wrong btw) so I didn't feel qualified to make a prediction. Now with very few games to go, I'm making a prediction and I think it'll be pretty accurate ^_^
My predicition is Lu Fredd will win the promotion spot, with 2nd-4th ending up in Group D and 5th-7th relegated to Group E. At this point ILLUMINATI▲ and M'Hunters need to a record of (9-2) in their final games to match my predicition for Lu Fredd's final score. While entirely possible, they have so little room for error and with more at risk there is a greater chance of something happening. Lu Fredd simply has a large enough lead right now that I'm confident in prediciting they will get promoted.
To ILLUMINATI▲ and M'Hunters, I say: prove me wrong,
prove me wrong!
Edited 12/12/2015 15:44:31
