Predictions based on 86 respondents:
1 2 3 4 5 6 mean sd
101st 25.6 29.1 23.3 15.1 4.7 2.3 2.51 1.28
Apprentice 32.6 23.3 22.1 8.1 2.3 11.6 2.59 1.62
Statisticians 24.4 22.1 23.3 20.9 7.0 2.3 2.71 1.35
TJC 15.1 14.0 12.8 20.9 30.2 7.0 3.58 1.58
DWF 3.5 9.3 8.1 27.9 37.2 14.0 4.28 1.28
Hawks 1.2 3.5 9.3 7.0 17.4 61.6 5.21 1.24
How do we start here? Clans are ranked by mean, but immediately at the start, it's obvious that the differences are small. In fact, there is no significant difference between the top 3 clans here. Even more: 4 clans got at least 10 first place votes here and each clan has at least 40% of the respondents placing them outside the top 2. Did we say brutal? Brutal.
101st ranks first so far, but we'll see if they can prove themselves. Their first rank is mainly thanks to few last place votes rather than a bunch of first places votes though and when it comes to getting into C, they get beaten by Apprentice by a single vote. About 55% ranks them in the top 2, but if they fail to make that, 38% of the respondents sees them finishing a respectable 3rd or 4th nevertheless. Most of this is actually pretty similar to the prediction of their parent clan, Lynx.
Apprentice ranks second while receiving both the most first place votes and the most top 2 (getting into C) votes. And, to keep the good news up, they even tie 101st in top 3 votes. Yet, 10 respondents see the clan finish last. Part of this may be caused by order (clans were in order of the google sheet in the poll, which put Apprentice last), but that probably doesn't explain everything. Even without those votes, there's still over 30% that sees this clan rank 3rd to 5th, a lot worst than their parent clan.
Statisticians are ranked third overall by virtue of basically getting 20% of the votes on positions 1 to 4 each with almost half of the respondents predicting them to reach C. As mentioned above, the difference between the top 3 are so small that they are not significant at the 5% level. Additionally, Statisticians shares the lowest number of last place votes, tied with 101st (2). (Both respondents answering this will be found and eliminated (both were anonymous, coincidence? ;-) )). That said, rumour has it that Math Wolf has been conducting and reporting analyses on predictions for Clan League for 4 hours now rather than taking his turns, giving him more stress and making it a lot more likely for Statisticians to lose their games. (Note: I ranked my own clan 3rd as well.)
TJC may be underrated with multiple alts in their mids, including nich and Pulsey (there, I said your name, I hope you feel special now). Some people may not be aware of this, as was also clear for 7th Heaven in one of the other qualifiers, leading to the large number of 5th place votes. Nevertheless, almost 30% predicts them to make it to C, adding to the reputation that in this qualifier, everything might be possible.
DWF is almost by default condemned to finish 5th in predictions like this, which is also the rank that most in the panel gave them. With so many good clans to choose from, only about 13% of the respondents believed DWF could make it to C with only 8% extra seeing a top 3 as possible. Thanks to the consensus 5th (and 4th) place votes, they tied 101st for the one but lowest variation in this division.
Just like DWF, Hawks is assumingly a victim of the reputation of the other clans rather than its own. They are the only clan with more than 40% of votes in a single rank, getting a majority of last place votes as a result. And even among those not putting Hawks last, there is very limited hope for them of reaching C according to our panel, with a single person believing they can win the group and 3 more thinking a second place is possible. Luckily (well, not for us, but trying to be objective here), the real results do not seem to match the predictions for this clan so far, but it's still early.
Please see
https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet?Offset=79 for full methodology and other divisions.
Edited 2/13/2017 16:42:03
