Just as I figured even though I had never seen you play beyond turn 2. You are really bad at expansion.
Right here you need to take down another bonus quickly. Probably Middle East this turn and then West Russia next turn. But you don't, you take a couple of shots at the Middle East and with your other armies choose to expand into Scandinavia (LOL) and South Africa - probably because your paranoia has gotten the best of you and you're going crazy trying to find piggy. But what you fail to realize is, even if you find him, he's going to have a bonus much larger than yours - and you will have no chance!